Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 84 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)
clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11344 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:46 PM

Thanks Jamie.

Kevin--my thoughts exactly. Melbourne tends to highlight the dire possibilities earlier than any of the Florida NWS sites, but the scenario mentioned still would not bode well for anywhere in the peninsula. Just trying to wait and see, but this one looks a bit more ominous. Lots of time for things to change though...


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: model camps
      #11345 - Tue Sep 09 2003 03:51 PM

Thanks Brad

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
West turn will begin SOON
      #11346 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:00 PM

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm6/wg8dlm6java.html

Ridge now building, steering currents are REALLY perking up in speed just west of Isabel. It's gonna turn soon. The ULL is moving west, but it's also weakening fast. You can tell on the lastest WV loop, the ULL is losing its defintion.

BTW...just got high speed cable internet in today. Used to have dial-up...boy were we missing out on some speed! The link I just posted takes about 15 seconds on my machine. Now I can really do some heavy-duty evaluating .


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11347 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:06 PM

Kevin, think this will speed up the forward motion of Isabel?? she seems to have been swimming against the tide IMO. Frankly I haven't mapped out the forecast of her forward speed

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beach
Unregistered




Re: NEW Melbourne Discussion
      #11348 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:08 PM

Thanks!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11349 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:11 PM

A motion towards the west at 18-20 mph in 24-36 hours looks to be in order I believe. It is absolutely AMAZING to see how some people on the other message boards are calling this thing a fish already. I'll bet you that half of them don't even use the steering currents link I provided. Steve-LOL-I'm not trying to call you and idiot or anything, but your brain is being littered from all of the junk on some of the other boards right now. Isabel will turn west within the next 12-24 hours, and probably closer to 12 than 24. A strong ridge is building in north of Isabel, and that's a fact.

Just watch Isabel carefully. We should have a much clearer idea of what the storm will do come the weekend.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hypercane
Unregistered




Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11350 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:11 PM

Losing its definition? I don't claim to be a weather expert, but I'm looking at the water vapor loop, and to me it appears that the upper level low is becoming more broad, covering a wider area. I just don't see how Isabel is going to turn west. The steering out in front of it still looks like southerly flow to me, and indeed the storm seems to be heading purely NW. I don't see where this west turn will happen. But then again, I didn't see where Fabian was going to turn so abruptly north, either.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Lisa NC
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11351 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:17 PM

Her outflow bands tend to more east and west at the moment, seems like she is getting ready to turn more to the left. The swirl in front of Isa was there yesterday but has developed more convection today. Is there any chance something is trying to fire there?

--------------------
<img src="/hahn/images/graemlins/wink.gif" alt="" />


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Hypercane
      #11352 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:25 PM

The center of the ULL is currently located at about 22N and 62W. Now...if you look carefully at the steering currents link that I posted, you can see the southwest-northeast orientation of the air flow around the ULL. Here's what we have:
1. The ULL is currently moving west, while the high pressure is building the north of it.
Isabel is essentially being steered by the high pressure completely. The flow that Isabel is in right now is still ese-wnw, thus a wnw movement overall. As Isabel hits the section of the high that is building, she will turn west. I think some may be confused about what is predominately steering Isabel. One look at the steering currents indicates that Isabel is currently being steered by the high pressure...the kink in the air around the ULL far enough west that it may not be influencing Isabel much at all right now.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11353 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:26 PM

hypercane: may want to get more-informed input re: this matter, but I think the west turn should take place because of the huge high pressure ridge above Isabel; assuming there isn't a weakness in the ridge that the NHC isn't seeing, it should turn somewhat more westerly.

Therefore, if the ULL didn't continue its march westward, it would have more of a tendency to shear Isabel than to turn her north, because the high pressure ridge wouldn't allow her to turn abruptly north. (Assuming, of course, a weakness in that ridge doesn't develop; if one does, then the ULL can turn her north.)

Lisa: are you referring to the upper level low around 62 West? If so, it's always possible it could work its way down to the surface, but it's highly unlikely.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: West turn will begin SOON
      #11354 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:27 PM

I meant "AT LEAST somewhat more westerly," not "somewhat more westerly."

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
hypercane
Unregistered




Re: Hypercane
      #11355 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:30 PM

I gotcha...and I do see what you speak of, on that steering currents page. I am just having trouble reconciling that with what I see on the water vapor loop. Oh well, we'll see.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
5 pm update out
      #11356 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:39 PM

more northward, closer to GFDL; steering currents weaken after 5 days

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: 5 pm update out
      #11357 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:42 PM

If I wasn't clear there, what I wrote are some highlights from the 5 pm discussion

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Too early to tell for me.
      #11358 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:48 PM

It seems the pattern of chat on these boards is to say..."oh no look at the models...it's coming this way!" then when the models say it will turn..."oh yes look at the models...it will turn"

Don't misunderstand me...I don't have a problem with this talk since that is whole point of these boards....it is just a continual pattern that I have noticed while reviewing these boards the last couple of years. I think it is kind of funny. LOL

Too early for me to get scared but I am definitely watching! Keep up the good discussion!


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Unregistered




Re: 5 pm update out
      #11359 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:51 PM

OK, so we turn to the west at a higher latitude. West is still west. Shortwave at day 5 may weaken ridge "a little" at this point according to Stewart's discussion. That little part annoys me. As the shortwave departs does the ridge "firm up" again??? Too far out for them to guess on.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Too early to tell for me.
      #11360 - Tue Sep 09 2003 04:52 PM

I have to wonder IF there had been a NOAA Gulfstream jet sampling the upper atmosphere out ahead of Isabel (Queen Jezebel), if the models, and thus, the forecasts would be significantly different. This is going to be a fascinating few days.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Jim M
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
Re: 5 pm update out
      #11361 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:00 PM

What I find interesting is they are, more or less, tossing the models that show the southerly jog. I understand that they have been consistently left of the verification; but have they really been that far off to discount a possible wsw move in the future?

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: 5 pm update out
      #11362 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:03 PM

Steve H.:

I had a different problem with the NHC's statement. The quotation is, "ERODES THE RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL ...." Now, does that mean: (1) erodes the ridge a little bit, in a position to the northwest of Isabel (i.e., "little" modifies the degree of erosion); or (2) erodes the ridge, in a position slightly to the northwest of Isabel (i.e., "little" modifies how far to the northwest)?

But frankly, I think any attempt to predict either exactly how much or exactly where the ridge will erode 5 days from now is like reading tea leaves, so I don't think that ambiguity means anything at this point...but it still left me wondering.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: 5 pm update out
      #11363 - Tue Sep 09 2003 05:05 PM

The 5 PM update is pretty much how I expected it to be. Its obvious that Isabel hasn't turned west quite as early as was earlier forecast. But the westward movement should begin within the next 12-24 hours.

After that...I don't know about early next week. It is indeed much too early speculate on whether Isabel will recurve or continue on a more westerly track after 5 days.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 3 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating: *****
Topic views: 66159

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center