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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Zeta) , Major: 335 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1021 (Michael) Major: 1021 (Michael)
 


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June Gulf System Claudette
      #113779 - Sat Jun 12 2021 10:27 AM

Midnight EDT 20 June Update
Claudette is moving throw Alabama tonight dropping Incredible amounts of flooding rain in the Tuscaloosa and Birmingham, Fort Payne areas in Alabama and Dalton in Georgia, it will likely move over Georgia and South Carolina before exiting into the Atlantic. Because of the alignment, its gotten slightly more organized (not necessarily stronger) at least for rain impacts, as it continues to pour. Those who may see Flooding Rain include extreme southeastern Tennessee, Northern Georgia, and along the NC/SC line through to the outer banks. The amount of rain in some of the bands could create flash flooding in some areas. Those in the areas with the heavy bands, please do not underestimate Claudette.

Earlier some of the strongest winds gusts were felt along coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle, including an 81mph gust recorded at the Pensacola airport. The system was winding up quickly at landfall, and is why it seemed to get a name over land.



8AM EDT 18 June Update
Tropical Storm Claudette has formed just offshore of Louisiana this morning and the majority of rain and weather in impacting points east, particularly in Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle where a few tornadoes have been seen, as well as bands of very heavy rain to the east of the Center.


8AM EDT 17 June Update
92L in the Gulf is up to 90% chance for development, advisories may begin later today, although it still remains very broad and spread out and not terribly organized at the moment. Again, most of the rain is well east of the center on the NHCs map, and streaming over Florida again today, if it does develop, the convection and rain will still be mostly, if not almost all on the east side and stretch into the Panhandle. Strong wind likely won't be much of a problem with this one.

Beyond that it, along with a front will make for a rainy week in most of the Southeastern US.

8AM EDT 16 June Update
Tropical Storm Bill no longer exists and the system in the east Atlantic 94L missed its chance to develop, however 92L In the Gulf if now up to a 90% chance to develop as it tries to slowly get its act together in the Southwestern Gulf.

92L is very broad with energy in the southern Bay of Campeche all the way to the North tip of the Yucatan, the shearing is pushing much of the rain to the east, so if it does develop or not depends on how much one are consolidates or not. If it does develop it will likely stay weak and the rain will still be very easy heavy, assuming the center went into Louisiana, the heaviest rain/squalls may still be well east of that, into Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle. Even before this the shearing will greatly enhance the rain over much of Florida again today and the general area of this storm likely won't move much today or tomorrow until the evening.

8AM EDT 15 June Update
Tropical Storm Bill is moving away from land quite rapidly in the North Atlantic, and the area in the southwestern Gulf is now at a 70% chance for development over the next 5 days or so.

The Gulf system (92L) is likely to remain weak, with most of the rain well to the east of the center, it may bring some minor surge along the northern Gulf coast and a lot of rain, but it's worth watching for those in the area. Some of the first bands should reach parts of Louisiana on Friday morning but the center likely won't arrive until Saturday morning, those around the center point of landfall may not notice much since the majority of the convection is sheared to the east. The majority of the weather associated with this system will likely be east, with a lot of moisture streaming into those areas. The west side of the system likely won't see much at all. There may be short lived weaker tornadoes associated with this system, especially east of the system, all the way into the Western Florida Panhandle.

The other area in the Eastern Atlantic (94L) has a 10% chance to develop, and probably will remain low chance. (It's June)

10AM EDT 14 June Update
The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Two, located offshore of the coast of North Carolina and moving away from the United States, at 1100 AM EDT

8AM EDT June 14 2021 Update
3 Areas in June is unusual, however, there is Invest 93L off the Carolina coast that ramped up quickly overnight and now has a 70% chance to develop as it it moves away from land. It seems likely to develop into a short lived subtropical or tropical System, and could become Bill later today.

92L, the area in the Bay of Campeche, has a 60% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and has the potential to organize and cause a large rain event in the north Gulf coast, particularly east of where the center would eventually cross.

The area in the far east Atlantic, is much less likely to develop, but the potential is still there, at 20% over the next 5 days.

Original Update

The area in the Bay of Campeche along the southwestern Gulf of Mexico now has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and a 10% chance within the next 48 hours. It's likely going to be mostly a rain event. With the overall pattern and the winds at higher levels in the atmosphere, if anything develops, it likely would be a sheared system with most of rain and convection to right of the center. Still worth watching for those along the northern Gulf coast for late this coming week into next weekend.

For those in Mexico, it will bring a lot of rain as it tries to consolidate.

Currently there is no invest area for this system. The forecast lounge is discussing the longer range models on it.

Claudette Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Claudette - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Claudette


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float3latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Claudette (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Claudette (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Claudette

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Claudette
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Claudette -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Tropical Depression Two Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of TD2 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of TD2


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float2latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of TD2 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of TD2 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of TD2

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for TD2
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on TD2 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Invest 94L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 94L - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 94L


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float4latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 94L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 94L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 94L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 94L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 94L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


North Gulf Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

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