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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1149 (Michael) Major: 1149 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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tinahdee
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: tampa
Re: UKMET track question [Re: cieldumort]
      #113823 - Sat Jul 03 2021 06:00 PM

Thank you, that's illuminating

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: UKMET track question [Re: cieldumort]
      #113824 - Sat Jul 03 2021 07:10 PM

I went to the FSU model ensemble site and ran that model (12Z) frame by frame. It does indicate that
Elsa seems to dissipate over Cuba, but picks it up again just north of Tampa Bay as a weak system.

Edited by MichaelA (Sat Jul 03 2021 07:11 PM)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: UKMET track question [Re: MichaelA]
      #113825 - Sun Jul 04 2021 06:54 AM

Models are all tracking fairly consistent with each other. Here in SW Seminole county, look like we will be on the dirty side.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: UKMET track question [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113826 - Sun Jul 04 2021 09:09 AM

Today is the day that will clarify the future of the storm. Long exposure to Cuba vs a short right turn over the western portion of the island. It continues to be a disorganized system which long land exposure will keep it weak. We all know that the Gulf Stream currents have very warm water which is why it will likely not totally dissipate no matter what…and will facilitate some improvement as it passes over it.

--------------------
doug


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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: UKMET track question [Re: doug]
      #113827 - Sun Jul 04 2021 10:03 AM

Looking at the floater geocolor loop, there is a significant convective development apparently near the center just north of Jamaica with good outflow in all but the western quadrant this AM. Elsa’s satellite presentation is not as disorganized as it was earlier.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 375
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: UKMET track question [Re: MichaelA]
      #113828 - Sun Jul 04 2021 05:12 PM

Tropical Storm watch has just been issued for my area (Tampa/Plant City/Lakeland) 'until further notice'....

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: UKMET track question [Re: MichaelA]
      #113829 - Sun Jul 04 2021 05:26 PM

It continues to maintain this little ball of energy and looks really good, but the data indicates its still struggling and the interaction with Cuba is likely to keep it in check. Of course once it pops back out over the ocean the window for strengthening is available. The question will be how much is left and how quickly can it spin up.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 375
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: UKMET track question [Re: JMII]
      #113830 - Sun Jul 04 2021 08:07 PM

As long as it doesn't do a 'Charley'.....probably too early in the season for that to happen....but it HAS happened.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Lautermilch
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 8
Re: UKMET track question [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #113831 - Sun Jul 04 2021 08:24 PM

Quote:

As long as it doesn't do a 'Charley'.....probably too early in the season for that to happen....but it HAS happened.



I am a photographer and thought it would be interesting to 'chase' Charlie. I was taking a break with some others around the eating area at a Texaco in Arcadia when the manager screamed the store was closing five minutes. We asked what was the problem and he yelled back the new strength. I and the others decided to head east. Driving down 70 I watched dead palm fronds getting ripped off so I knew the winds were building.


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 354
Loc: Southeast, FL
mid level circulation [Re: Lautermilch]
      #113832 - Sun Jul 04 2021 10:32 PM

I have watched the mid level, or southern extent of the trough that makes up the overall center. It does look good.. It was coupling together last night as it all slowed down and looked great on scatometer, then it immediately got disrupted as it interacted with Jamaica, the low level shot out and is interacting with land while the upper level/ secondary low level features continues west maybe wsw in the last few frames as of this posting..into what i would consider a better environment.
Initial Model runs early indicated much further west, with the first system pulling north as it tried to get going and the latter hit cozumel into the gulf. I assumed that would be wrong as the first sheared out, leaving the second to just chance, and really never thought it would get to florida although this year seems to be very favorable, with a forecasted neutral'ish ENSO... Most early system do drop thier LLCC and the mid level/secondary low level feature takes control, multiple low level centers in a trough.
I would gesture a stronger system as it turns into the trough, and possibly a sharper turn. should the southern secondary feature take hold, either the north low dies and it drops one, or the southern gets enough strength it can wrap the north back under and get all in line.......

Edited by Robert (Sun Jul 04 2021 10:46 PM)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: Robert]
      #113833 - Sun Jul 04 2021 11:35 PM

It’s currently trying to restack itself and thus gaining strength tonight. The more westward the track the longer it stays over water giving it a fighting chance to not fizzle out. While Charley-like strength is not going to happen a similar ride-the-coast then hook inland part of the forecast is similar. A small change could mean landfall in a wide range of locations. I think another difference here is many on the east coast might be surprised by the strong SE inflow of rain and wind since this is a west FL storm based on current warnings.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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OrlandoDan
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 413
Loc: Longwood, FL
Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113834 - Mon Jul 05 2021 06:09 AM

Depending on how close she tacks yo the west coast of FL, inland counties could see impacts due to being on the dirty side

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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EMS
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 52
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113835 - Mon Jul 05 2021 08:31 AM

This looks like a tropical storm in its formative stages on satellite this morning. Unless something crazy happens (like a reformation of a vertically aligned center further south of the current position), Elsa may barely survive the trip across Cuba. Also with the circulation so small and models trending a bit more west, odds of a significant wind or surge event appear to be significantly decreasing for West Central Florida. Have to keep watch once it gets back in the Gulf but I’m cautiously optimistic July climatology wins out on this one.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113836 - Mon Jul 05 2021 08:46 AM

Lots of thunderstorms are bubbling up but none of them are wrapping around the center... its looking really sloppy this AM. And yes all the bad weather is to the SE so the effects inland could be worse after the center passes your latitude. The SW shear is clearly effecting Elsa as outflow to the NW has been cut off. She is going to have a rough 24 hours with many factors limiting her organization and strength.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113837 - Mon Jul 05 2021 09:15 AM

It's looking to be more and more of a nighttime event for us in the Tampa Bay area. Spending today doing last minute cleanup and prep outside.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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tinahdee
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Loc: tampa
Re: mid level circulation [Re: MichaelA]
      #113839 - Mon Jul 05 2021 03:04 PM

I don't know... after having lived in Tampa for 40 years, I've seen too many with stats like this either go further west and impact the panhandle or just fizzle out wind/storm surge wise and just bring some rain. My (decidedly non-expert) gut is that this one is going to fade/fizzle and I didn't really need the county to text me that sandbags are available. I could be totally wrong though.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: tinahdee]
      #113840 - Mon Jul 05 2021 04:21 PM

The first feeder band reached me on the SE coast about 10 minutes ago. After this band is... well not much else until the core. Elsa is looking very elongated N/S. Its finally close enough to track via Key West radar, so it will be easy to watch her motion and intensity. The center of circulation appears to be displaced to NE.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113841 - Mon Jul 05 2021 08:35 PM

Looking at radar, it looks like the motion may be more northerly now, possibly drawing a bead on Key West. Waiting for recon fix and data once the storm exits from Cuba. I have to get up at 4:30 AM to be at work by 6, so I’ll be asleep when the 11 PM advisory and analysis is posted. I’ll check things as soon as I wake, though.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: MichaelA]
      #113843 - Mon Jul 05 2021 09:02 PM

Quote:

Looking at radar, it looks like the motion may be more northerly now, possibly drawing a bead on Key West.




Agreed. Radar presentation is pretty sloppy as Elsa is having trouble staying together.


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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


Reged: Mon
Posts: 375
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113844 - Tue Jul 06 2021 09:45 AM

She seems to have held together pretty well overall in the overnight hours. AND the cone seems to have shifted back to the east a bit...towards me....should be an interesting afternoon and overnight.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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