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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 79 (Nicholas) , Major: 95 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1148 (Michael) Major: 1148 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Elsa Lounge
      #113795 - Tue Jun 29 2021 09:41 PM



Once again, yet another unseasonably vigorous tropical wave is already approaching tropical cyclone status, and so despite the fact that the disturbance recently tagged Invest 97L is way out in the MDR of the Tropical Atlantic, which typically wouldn't be of much interest until later in a season, we are starting a lounge on this feature that could become another early season numbered TC as soon as overnight tonight or tomorrow.

Early model guidance suggests that the disturbance will track through the Caribbean, and this looks likely given the very stout Bermuda High. While conditions for further development may be less than ideal on approach to and just inside of the eastern Caribbean, given the unusually feisty nature of African Easterly Waves this season, it would not shock to see this become a more serious storm at some point in its cycle.

Edited by CFHC (Thu Jul 01 2021 07:14 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113796 - Wed Jun 30 2021 12:13 AM

97L increasingly looks like it has a very good shot of becoming the Atlantic's first hurricane, and possibly also first long-track hurricane, of 2021.



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scottsvb
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113797 - Wed Jun 30 2021 01:15 PM

They'll probably classify it this evening.. infact they almost have to due to the time it will take to get to the islands.. say 48hours out.

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MichaelA
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113798 - Wed Jun 30 2021 02:18 PM

Models don't look very good for West Central FL on July 5-6. I'm sure they will change as the system develops and the mid-lat systems progress. I'll be keeping my eyes on this one and be ready to prep if need be.

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Michael

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doug
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #113801 - Thu Jul 01 2021 09:03 AM

Waiting for a couple of days to draw any conclusions. We know how fickle storms in the Caribbean can be..

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JMII.
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113802 - Thu Jul 01 2021 12:40 PM

These long track storms are always fickle... a small change today could, or equally could not, shift the cone radically. We have gotten so much rain these last two weeks in SFL that I would prefer Elsa not visit us. Looks pretty healthy currently but she is way down south. Don't remember many storms reaching us from such a low latitude (10N).

--------------------
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IsoFlame
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: JMII.]
      #113803 - Thu Jul 01 2021 01:53 PM

LLC just cleared 10N, now a more WNW track than previous advisory. Past hours loop shows healthy convection firing near and north of LLC and banding in the SW quadrant. Remarkable to have a strengthening tropical storm so far south in the Atlantic moving so fast.

Not hoping for a close passage to peninsular Florida, but here in coastal central Volusia County I could really use 3" or more spread out over several days. I measured only 4.14" in June (3.5" below normal), annual deficit now 7"+ for Station Number FL-VL-42 Daytona Beach Shores 1.8 SSE

Community Collaborative Florida Rain Network

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OrlandoDan
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113804 - Thu Jul 01 2021 03:30 PM

A long way away and way south. We shall all keep a cautious eye on her.

--------------------
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doug
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113805 - Thu Jul 01 2021 05:29 PM

Had about 5” this week which took us to near normal for June…before that we had very little rain since April..

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doug


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OrlandoDan
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113806 - Thu Jul 01 2021 05:47 PM

Please, the experts weigh in. Why is the Euro so radically different? Changes to the model itself? Not enough input data? Etc?????

--------------------
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doug
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113807 - Fri Jul 02 2021 06:00 AM

Good morning. Watching the larger satellite video this A.M. There is a stronger flow over Hispaniola than the flow to the south. Therefore I think the Euro model has the better data and the storm will exit the Caribbean over that island. We should know by this evening as it is now crossing into that area.

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doug


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scottsvb
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113808 - Fri Jul 02 2021 11:55 AM

Don't we have the Radar Amination from Martinque Mike usually posts? Or can admin/mod post ? ty

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scottsvb
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #113809 - Fri Jul 02 2021 12:06 PM

GFS is under performing intenisty guidance.. but does show LLC racing WNW, thus keeping this a min hurricane (adjusting to the poor MB intenisty performance. Still with this going so fast.. decoupling will happen, especially by time it gets to Cuba and exitiing it. LLC could wander WNW to NW.. midelevel moisture N into Florida.. still this is just 1 run of the GFS.. will have a better idea 0z run and tomorrow.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #113813 - Fri Jul 02 2021 03:43 PM

Looks like the Euro has her going far more west than previous runs.

Edited by OrlandoDan (Fri Jul 02 2021 04:00 PM)


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JMII
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113817 - Fri Jul 02 2021 09:01 PM

It’s been trending west likely because it’s moving so fast. It’s entering an area of increased shear which should weaken it. However if it holds on and manages to stay off the islands a stronger storm might effect the FL Keys. Flip side is it struggles, gets disrupted and becomes a weak TS out in the gulf bothering nobody.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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doug
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #113818 - Sat Jul 03 2021 08:44 AM

Next 24 hours will tell us a lot. The speed it is moving is it’s greatest enemy and it is unstacked…if that continues it may not survive as an organized storm after interacting with the land parcels it must cross… n

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JMII
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113819 - Sat Jul 03 2021 11:27 AM

As of 11AM its been downgraded to the TS and is looking ragged, even the outflow has disrupted. All the thunderstorm energy is displaced to the SE. On its current track Elsa is going to spend nearly 24 hours over Cuba cut off from the ocean. Seems like the weaker option of the forecast is looking more likely.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: 97L Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #113820 - Sat Jul 03 2021 11:28 AM

I might disagree a bit with 'in the Gulf bothering nobody'.....West Central Florida is awash in precipitation today after a very rainy week and a half and a TS to the west of us could bring a host of flooding problems to this area. Those in flood-prone areas need to stay highly informed and vigilant even if the storm weakens significantly as it approaches. May end up not being much of a wind event, but can still cause a lot of issues for some people. Stay tuned!

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tinahdee
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UKMET track question [Re: cieldumort]
      #113821 - Sat Jul 03 2021 04:58 PM

I noticed that on the Skeetobite spaghetti model, the UKMET track deadends at the base of Cuba - does this mean anything in particular - does it mean the UKMET thinks Elsa will dissipate at that point? Or is it just an anomaly?

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: tinahdee]
      #113822 - Sat Jul 03 2021 05:28 PM

The most recent UKMET run on Elsa issued 12Z today does suggest that the cyclone falls apart prior to crossing Cuba.

The Skeetobite plot referenced might be in the process of updating the 12Z run.

Here is another view of the most recent run, which also suggests Elsa degenerates.



However, just for complete disclosure, more comprehensive maps of the UKMET 12Z run also show regeneration of some degree west of Florida, possibly coming ashore in the northwest part of the state at TD/lower-end TS.

Also worth mentioning that a number of other models' most recent runs point to degeneration prior to crossing Cuba, with some regenerating, and others not so much, if at all.


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tinahdee
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: cieldumort]
      #113823 - Sat Jul 03 2021 06:00 PM

Thank you, that's illuminating

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MichaelA
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: cieldumort]
      #113824 - Sat Jul 03 2021 07:10 PM

I went to the FSU model ensemble site and ran that model (12Z) frame by frame. It does indicate that
Elsa seems to dissipate over Cuba, but picks it up again just north of Tampa Bay as a weak system.

Edited by MichaelA (Sat Jul 03 2021 07:11 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: MichaelA]
      #113825 - Sun Jul 04 2021 06:54 AM

Models are all tracking fairly consistent with each other. Here in SW Seminole county, look like we will be on the dirty side.

--------------------
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doug
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113826 - Sun Jul 04 2021 09:09 AM

Today is the day that will clarify the future of the storm. Long exposure to Cuba vs a short right turn over the western portion of the island. It continues to be a disorganized system which long land exposure will keep it weak. We all know that the Gulf Stream currents have very warm water which is why it will likely not totally dissipate no matter what…and will facilitate some improvement as it passes over it.

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MichaelA
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: doug]
      #113827 - Sun Jul 04 2021 10:03 AM

Looking at the floater geocolor loop, there is a significant convective development apparently near the center just north of Jamaica with good outflow in all but the western quadrant this AM. Elsa’s satellite presentation is not as disorganized as it was earlier.

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Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: MichaelA]
      #113828 - Sun Jul 04 2021 05:12 PM

Tropical Storm watch has just been issued for my area (Tampa/Plant City/Lakeland) 'until further notice'....

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JMII
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: MichaelA]
      #113829 - Sun Jul 04 2021 05:26 PM

It continues to maintain this little ball of energy and looks really good, but the data indicates its still struggling and the interaction with Cuba is likely to keep it in check. Of course once it pops back out over the ocean the window for strengthening is available. The question will be how much is left and how quickly can it spin up.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: JMII]
      #113830 - Sun Jul 04 2021 08:07 PM

As long as it doesn't do a 'Charley'.....probably too early in the season for that to happen....but it HAS happened.

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Lautermilch
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Re: UKMET track question [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #113831 - Sun Jul 04 2021 08:24 PM

Quote:

As long as it doesn't do a 'Charley'.....probably too early in the season for that to happen....but it HAS happened.



I am a photographer and thought it would be interesting to 'chase' Charlie. I was taking a break with some others around the eating area at a Texaco in Arcadia when the manager screamed the store was closing five minutes. We asked what was the problem and he yelled back the new strength. I and the others decided to head east. Driving down 70 I watched dead palm fronds getting ripped off so I knew the winds were building.


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Robert
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mid level circulation [Re: Lautermilch]
      #113832 - Sun Jul 04 2021 10:32 PM

I have watched the mid level, or southern extent of the trough that makes up the overall center. It does look good.. It was coupling together last night as it all slowed down and looked great on scatometer, then it immediately got disrupted as it interacted with Jamaica, the low level shot out and is interacting with land while the upper level/ secondary low level features continues west maybe wsw in the last few frames as of this posting..into what i would consider a better environment.
Initial Model runs early indicated much further west, with the first system pulling north as it tried to get going and the latter hit cozumel into the gulf. I assumed that would be wrong as the first sheared out, leaving the second to just chance, and really never thought it would get to florida although this year seems to be very favorable, with a forecasted neutral'ish ENSO... Most early system do drop thier LLCC and the mid level/secondary low level feature takes control, multiple low level centers in a trough.
I would gesture a stronger system as it turns into the trough, and possibly a sharper turn. should the southern secondary feature take hold, either the north low dies and it drops one, or the southern gets enough strength it can wrap the north back under and get all in line.......

Edited by Robert (Sun Jul 04 2021 10:46 PM)


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JMII
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: Robert]
      #113833 - Sun Jul 04 2021 11:35 PM

It’s currently trying to restack itself and thus gaining strength tonight. The more westward the track the longer it stays over water giving it a fighting chance to not fizzle out. While Charley-like strength is not going to happen a similar ride-the-coast then hook inland part of the forecast is similar. A small change could mean landfall in a wide range of locations. I think another difference here is many on the east coast might be surprised by the strong SE inflow of rain and wind since this is a west FL storm based on current warnings.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113834 - Mon Jul 05 2021 06:09 AM

Depending on how close she tacks yo the west coast of FL, inland counties could see impacts due to being on the dirty side

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

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EMS
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113835 - Mon Jul 05 2021 08:31 AM

This looks like a tropical storm in its formative stages on satellite this morning. Unless something crazy happens (like a reformation of a vertically aligned center further south of the current position), Elsa may barely survive the trip across Cuba. Also with the circulation so small and models trending a bit more west, odds of a significant wind or surge event appear to be significantly decreasing for West Central Florida. Have to keep watch once it gets back in the Gulf but I’m cautiously optimistic July climatology wins out on this one.

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JMII
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #113836 - Mon Jul 05 2021 08:46 AM

Lots of thunderstorms are bubbling up but none of them are wrapping around the center... its looking really sloppy this AM. And yes all the bad weather is to the SE so the effects inland could be worse after the center passes your latitude. The SW shear is clearly effecting Elsa as outflow to the NW has been cut off. She is going to have a rough 24 hours with many factors limiting her organization and strength.

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MichaelA
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113837 - Mon Jul 05 2021 09:15 AM

It's looking to be more and more of a nighttime event for us in the Tampa Bay area. Spending today doing last minute cleanup and prep outside.

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Michael

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2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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tinahdee
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: MichaelA]
      #113839 - Mon Jul 05 2021 03:04 PM

I don't know... after having lived in Tampa for 40 years, I've seen too many with stats like this either go further west and impact the panhandle or just fizzle out wind/storm surge wise and just bring some rain. My (decidedly non-expert) gut is that this one is going to fade/fizzle and I didn't really need the county to text me that sandbags are available. I could be totally wrong though.

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JMII
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: tinahdee]
      #113840 - Mon Jul 05 2021 04:21 PM

The first feeder band reached me on the SE coast about 10 minutes ago. After this band is... well not much else until the core. Elsa is looking very elongated N/S. Its finally close enough to track via Key West radar, so it will be easy to watch her motion and intensity. The center of circulation appears to be displaced to NE.

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MichaelA
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113841 - Mon Jul 05 2021 08:35 PM

Looking at radar, it looks like the motion may be more northerly now, possibly drawing a bead on Key West. Waiting for recon fix and data once the storm exits from Cuba. I have to get up at 4:30 AM to be at work by 6, so I’ll be asleep when the 11 PM advisory and analysis is posted. I’ll check things as soon as I wake, though.

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Michael

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2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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JMII
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: MichaelA]
      #113843 - Mon Jul 05 2021 09:02 PM

Quote:

Looking at radar, it looks like the motion may be more northerly now, possibly drawing a bead on Key West.




Agreed. Radar presentation is pretty sloppy as Elsa is having trouble staying together.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113844 - Tue Jul 06 2021 09:45 AM

She seems to have held together pretty well overall in the overnight hours. AND the cone seems to have shifted back to the east a bit...towards me....should be an interesting afternoon and overnight.

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JMII
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #113845 - Tue Jul 06 2021 10:41 AM

Its a compact little storm, but the track has it hugging the coast the whole way N which means the entire W coast of FL is going get off and on TS conditions during the day.

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StormHound
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #113846 - Tue Jul 06 2021 11:52 AM

Quote:

She seems to have held together pretty well overall in the overnight hours. AND the cone seems to have shifted back to the east a bit...towards me....should be an interesting afternoon and overnight.




Agree. Nothing overly catastrophic, but plenty of nastier storms than normal for most of Florida the next 24 to 36 hours.

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IsoFlame
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: StormHound]
      #113847 - Tue Jul 06 2021 12:15 PM

30 NM to the west of Elsa's position:

buoy # 42026

Noon weather report from Key West: Wind SE39G60mph, pressure 29.95F

Given the reports from other stations to east of Elsa, its obvious that the TS is very lopsided, and 0 to 75 miles east of the track is going to be most impacted. If a convective band taps into Atlantic moisture tonight or Wednesday north of Cape Canaveral when Elsa passes slowly along the Florida Gulf coast, the east coast north of the Cape may get some bad weather too, and my parched location in central coastal Volusia may actually get some beneficial rain.

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Jul 06 2021 12:29 PM)


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StormHound
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113848 - Tue Jul 06 2021 02:04 PM

Second hand information as I haven't looked myself, but reports are that recon is showing near hurricane strength winds and recon has not yet measured the NE quadrant. Presumably we could see Elsa reclassified when recon is finished and confirmed.

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JMII
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Re: mid level circulation [Re: StormHound]
      #113851 - Tue Jul 06 2021 03:42 PM

Finally got another feeder band here on the SE coast but the storms compact size means we are not seeing much. Its just grey and overcast with occasional light rain here in NW Broward.

And yes recon is showing 64-83 kt winds in the NE quad. Seems to isolated to two small bands: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF302-1305A-ELSA.png

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 195
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: mid level circulation [Re: JMII]
      #113853 - Tue Jul 06 2021 04:32 PM

Those bands are roughly 25 to 50 mile NE/E of the center. If the track holds due north next 12 hours as the forecast calls for, allowing the center to stay offshore a dozen or so miles from St. Pete Beach, these strong bands in the NE quadrant would put Tampa Bay in the crosshairs for Elsa's highest winds and greatest surge. My son lives in St. Pete (on high ground) but works in Tampa- asked him not to plan on going to work tomorrow as the Gandy and Howard Franklin bridges may close for Elsa.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: mid level circulation [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113854 - Tue Jul 06 2021 04:44 PM

Here is the status of the Sunshine Skyway Bridge: https://www.skywaybridgestatus.com/ taken from https://fl511.com/List/Alerts

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 914
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: mid level circulation [Re: IsoFlame]
      #113855 - Tue Jul 06 2021 05:06 PM

Elsa certainly is defying its surroundings. Looking at the radar and satellite floater loops, it appears that the central convection is trying to wrap around the LLC. That said, the heaviest weather is still in the NE and E quadrants removed from the center. If the forecast track confirms, Elsa will give the Tampa Bay region much the same weather as Eta did last November. A slight wobble to the east would dramatically change that though. If the position forecast verifies, the worst will occur between Midnight and 4 AM here in Pinellas County.

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Michael

WU PWS

2021 “guess:” 15/8/3
2021 Actual 21/7/4


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113860 - Tue Jul 06 2021 09:12 PM

Likely responding to shear, for much of the day the LLC has been realigning itself with the MLC, and tracking just a wee bit extra to the right seemingly with every hour or few. This may bring meaningfully deteriorating conditions ashore sooner rather than later, with locations including but not limited to from about Tampa to roughly Cedar Key seeing some of the very worst of it starting possibly well before dawn and then continuing into the morning tomorrow, easing from west to east, but with onshore flow continuing, potentially exacerbating storm surge, inland flooding and wind damage that would have already occurred.

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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 422
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113861 - Tue Jul 06 2021 10:28 PM

Based on radar the eye that was trying to form has completely collapsed. However Sarasota, Venice and North Port appear to be getting hammered by a line of strong storms.

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2112
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #113862 - Tue Jul 06 2021 11:33 PM

Dry air is definitely being injected into the system from the southwest tonight. With cloud tops now having been warming since shortly after Elsa was upgraded at 8PM, it seems all but certain that the long championed 'supernatural' way Tampa Bay has avoided a direct hurricane hit for a century holds yet once more, and that possibly even Elsa's rain will taper off rather abruptly after passage.

That said, fair to say that the one thing we have noted with Elsa is not to count her out, and she could easily pick up a difluence assist ahead.


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #113863 - Wed Jul 07 2021 06:48 AM

2.65 inches of rain here in Parrish on my station. Highest wind gusts at 23…very fortunate… we seem to be in the gap between bands

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doug


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Elsa Lounge [Re: doug]
      #113866 - Wed Jul 07 2021 11:56 AM

If nothing else, Elsa may be one of the most resilient storms ever. In effect it has survived although, structurally, only half a storm for over a week..

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doug


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