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Archives 2020s >> 2021 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2164
Loc: Austin, Tx
Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low
      #114064 - Sun Dec 19 2021 02:31 AM

Models are about unanimously forecasting a pre-Christmas storm of a cool core/ trending symmetric-subtropical nature to develop in the Gulf by early to midweek, track ENE across Florida midweek, and into the southwestern Atlantic - Gulf Stream by the weekend.

This system as models currently forecast appears to be worthy of an upcoming Invest tag, and possibly a name. Given that the impacts would be felt over land (and Florida, specifically), and at a time of year when it may surprise many to learn of a strong coastal/subtropical storm approaching, we will open a lounge a bit quicker than usual on this anticipated system.

As of 12/19/21 06Z, this potential cyclone has not yet started to develop. Additional information will be coming soon.

The image below (Credit: Weather.us) shows the ECMWF forecast maximum gusts associated with this low pressure system for Tuesday Dec 21 9AM CST.



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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2164
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #114065 - Tue Dec 21 2021 12:56 AM

Odds of enveloping an inner core that could have a more 'nameable' character look to be giving way. Some subtropical-ish transition could still possibly occur, but much less possible in the Gulf - perhaps better odds over the Gulf Stream.

Weather, on the other hand, will continue to go downhill across much of Florida overnight and into Tuesday, with improving conditions rapidly behind the stout non-tropical system.

From NWS Melbourne
Quote:

Issued 256 PM EST Mon Dec 20 2021
Tuesday...The next 24 hours will prove to be the most active period
we have seen in awhile (at least so far in December). The deepening
surface low will reach the west FL coast by daybreak with upper
support in a 500 mb closed low digging south near MS/LA. The surface
low will shift over the peninsula through the day, with good
agreement in the center tracking along I-4 from dawn until dusk,
exiting offshore Daytona Beach by sunset. Uncertainty in the severe
threat is still present tomorrow, as latest model runs favor a dry
slot encompassing much of the area, with drier air wrapping around
the southern periphery of the low and the cold front extending south
towards the Keys. Focus for stronger activity still appears to begin
soon after sunrise and lasting through the late morning to early
afternoon, with deep-layer of dry air arriving by the afternoon
hours. Forecast soundings support this thought, but dry air arriving
in the mid levels early will offer the potential for strong to
severe wind gusts. DCAPE increases rapidly after 12Z up to 1200 J/kg
by late morning, suggesting wind gusts of 50-60 mph will be possible
prior to noon along with the potential for a tornado or two. Heavy
rainfall will remain a threat tomorrow morning, but most of the
precip will fall prior to sunrise, with higher totals occurring in
embedded thunderstorms. All signs point to the severe threat rapidly
diminishing through the afternoon with the mentioned arrival of dry
air on the south side of the low.




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Prospero
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 261
Loc: Gulfport, FL
Re: Pre-Christmas Gulf/SE Coastal Low [Re: cieldumort]
      #114066 - Sat Apr 09 2022 07:58 PM

Time for 2022! Bumper season predicted.

New 2022 threads?

--------------------
Gulfport, Florida USA - Personal Weather Station:
KFLGULFP5

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