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General Discussion >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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2022 Forecast Guesses
      #114067 - Tue Apr 19 2022 08:05 AM

Mine for this year is 16/9/3

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rmbjoe1954
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114068 - Fri Apr 22 2022 10:30 AM

I believe we will be at 20/10/5. I also believe the entire Florida peninsula to be under the gun as a hot spot for the season.

Edited by rmbjoe1954 (Sat Apr 23 2022 09:38 AM)


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B.C.Francis
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #114069 - Wed Apr 27 2022 02:48 PM

My guess this year is 18/9/5 As for Florida probably a good chance for the southern half of the state and the Gulf area. We'll see. Good luck !

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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #114070 - Fri Apr 29 2022 12:41 PM

As for now. 17/6/3…may change …

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doug


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M.A.
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: doug]
      #114072 - Wed May 04 2022 07:49 AM

15/7/4

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GlenJohnson
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114073 - Fri May 06 2022 10:42 AM

I'm guessing 18-9-3. We'll see if I'm right.

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Be civil to all; sociable to many; familiar with few; friend to one; enemy to none.
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EMS
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #114075 - Mon May 09 2022 09:31 PM

22 / 12 / 6 and I hope I’m way too high!

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JoshuaK
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114077 - Wed May 11 2022 08:12 PM

24/15/7

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Kraig
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: JoshuaK]
      #114082 - Sun May 15 2022 07:34 PM

My season guess is 21/11/4

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2022 forecast 21/11/4; 0/0/0 as of 6/1

South FL Native: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17), Dorian ('19) and Isaias (20)


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IsoFlame
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114089 - Sat May 21 2022 02:34 PM

18/7/2

Even though my total/(intensity call is on the low end, in agreement with others that it may shape up to be a bad season for Florida- especially the peninsula.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Bloodstar
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114095 - Fri May 27 2022 01:30 PM

At this point with La Nina active. I'm going to go with 23 named storms, 12 Hurricanes, and 7 Major

23/12/7

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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory, Feb 2022
U. Arizona PhD program starting August 2022


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vpbob21
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114097 - Fri May 27 2022 08:48 PM

20/11/6

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jtrnr1951
Registered User


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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: vpbob21]
      #114099 - Sat May 28 2022 02:38 PM

20,10,5

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IMTechspec
Verified CFHC User


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Loc: Orlando
Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114100 - Sat May 28 2022 05:39 PM

21 / 12 / 6

Hopefully it is not that high at the end of the season.


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: IMTechspec]
      #114101 - Sun May 29 2022 09:10 PM

21-7-5 here. Watching Agatha from Florida like

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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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cieldumortModerator
Moderator


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Re: 2022 Forecast Guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114105 - Tue May 31 2022 08:09 PM

I expect another active season with overall anomalously favorable number of potential disturbances (waves, lows, etc.) coupled with lower shear, higher SSTs and higher humidity in the Atlantic in the aggregate.

As for US impacts, I anticipate a roughly 2-out-of-3 chance of higher than average numbers of hits, including that higher risk of direct hits. There also are some indications that the drought conditions in Texas could be loosening its grip, and perhaps there will be even greater numbers of TCs that form and/or move into the Gulf this year that aren't nearly as hampered by dry air entrainment from land in this region as looked more likely just a month ago, which would thus influence the overall intensity and rainfall totals for Gulf coast states impacted by TCs.

For season total numbers of TDs, Names, Hurricanes and Majors I'm looking for a range of
16-22 Depressions, 14-19 Storms of which 6-9 become Hurricanes of which 3-5 become Majors.

My best guess for this year's totals: 19 Depressions, 16 Names, 8 Hurricanes and 4 Majors

As a p.s., I lean into last week's Invest 90L being considered for addition post-season, potentially as a Depression or unnamed Storm, but my guess is not dependent on whatever happens there.

Good luck and have a safe season everyone!


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