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The well-defined Tropical Low (98L) continues producing hvy rain, wind and tstorms over N MX and SW TX. Atlantic waking up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 337 (Nicholas) , Major: 352 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1406 (Michael) Major: 1406 (Michael)
 


General Discussion >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Colin Forecast Lounge
      #114133 - Sat Jul 02 2022 12:00 AM



A well-defined area of non-tropical low pressure began taking on more tropical characteristics despite moderate westerly shear on the morning of July 1st, and one could make the case that it was a T.D. by about noon Friday July 1 using a more flexible definition.

After drifting just inland near/over Charleston, S.C. the low has continued to slowly show signs of increasing organization.

96L is now being tugged offshore and drawn into a blossoming area of deep convection with very cold cloud tops, and it looks increasingly likely that a Tropical Storm may be forming, so we are starting a lounge on this well-formed cyclone at this time.

At 5AM ET July 2, NHC upgraded 96L directly to Tropical Storm Colin, and the title has been updated accordingly.

Edited by cieldumort (Sat Jul 02 2022 06:05 AM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 96L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114134 - Sat Jul 02 2022 05:58 AM

Invest 96L, likely already a tropical cyclone for over the past 12-18 hours, has just seen an upgrade by NHC directly to Colin.

Models are not going to be particularly useful at this time, as they have mostly all missed forecasting this, say nothing of even seeing it.


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