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The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts June 1st, 2023.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 80 (Nicole) , Major: 122 (Ian) Florida - Any: 80 (Nicole) Major: 122 (Ian)
 


Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 941
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #114268 - Mon Sep 26 2022 11:26 AM

Now looking to be possibly within 30 miles of the Pinellas County coastline. Not a good scenario if that verifies.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


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GeorgeN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114269 - Mon Sep 26 2022 11:29 AM

Does anyone know why the update frequency of the ECMWF model on SWFMD seems to be 4 times per day? I know it is supposed to be twice daily like UKMET, but the SWFMD plots appear to be more often. Are they running their own? Just curious to know.
Thanks to cieldumort for showing me Tomer's site. Much cleaner plots than the others.

Quote:

Does anyone know why the update frequency of the ECMWF model on SWFMD seems to be 4 times per day? I know it is supposed to be twice daily like UKMET, but the SWFMD plots appear to be more often. Are they running their own? Just curious to know.
Thanks to cieldumort for showing me Tomer's site. Much cleaner plots than the others.



Delighted to share Tomer's site. Some of the very best out there IMHO. The EURO is run 4 times a day, although the 06 and 18 are rapid runs, and only out to 90 hours rather than 240. - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 26 2022 01:27 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4489
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114272 - Mon Sep 26 2022 01:14 PM

SFWMD updates all the models it can every 6 hours, some of them are still the older runs

12Z GFS Is a direct hit on Tampa as a strong cat 3.


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IsoFlame
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114275 - Mon Sep 26 2022 01:50 PM

Quote:

SFWMD updates all the models it can every 6 hours, some of them are still the older runs

12Z GFS Is a direct hit on Tampa as a strong cat 3.




I can't imagine many scenarios worse than a brief/slow jog to the ENE as the GFS suggested. It would put the Bay and Pinellas on the right front quadrant of a strong, slow moving cat 3 for 6-8 hours (maybe even 10-12) starting late night Wednesday into much of Thursday.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114277 - Mon Sep 26 2022 03:22 PM

Quote:

I can't imagine many scenarios worse than a brief/slow jog to the ENE as the GFS suggested. It would put the Bay and Pinellas on the right front quadrant of a strong, slow moving cat 3 for 6-8 hours (maybe even 10-12) starting late night Wednesday into much of Thursday.




The only good news with the slower motion is that increases the chances Ian has of sucking in dry air and encountering shear as the global models show unfavorable environmental conditions later on this week. However that scenario only plays out if Ian stays offshore moving N then coming in near the Big Bend region. If it turns ENE sooner into Tampa it will be going full tilt but then surge wouldn't have a chance to pile up as much.

As has been the case for the last few days the models are split between the E turn and N stall out - so for now the NHC is showing a middle option guesstimate. The models yesterday were more N but today they have swung back E. I still think the bigger factor is the wind field since a compact storm would keep hurricane force winds offshore until it makes landfall. Currently hurricane force winds only extend out 35 miles from the center.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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IsoFlame
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114279 - Mon Sep 26 2022 03:59 PM

Not much lightning currently around the core of Ian- more over S Fla in the afternoon t-storms:

lightning mapper

There should be a good light show tonight in deep convection wrapping around the center as Ian continues to wind up, and the eye clears out.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Keith B
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 55
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #114280 - Mon Sep 26 2022 04:18 PM

Thank you admin for adjusting the screen. Much easier to read. : )

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114281 - Mon Sep 26 2022 04:18 PM

Quote:

Quote:

I can't imagine many scenarios worse than a brief/slow jog to the ENE as the GFS suggested. It would put the Bay and Pinellas on the right front quadrant of a strong, slow moving cat 3 for 6-8 hours (maybe even 10-12) starting late night Wednesday into much of Thursday.




The only good news with the slower motion is that increases the chances Ian has of sucking in dry air and encountering shear as the global models show unfavorable environmental conditions later on this week. However that scenario only plays out if Ian stays offshore moving N then coming in near the Big Bend region. If it turns ENE sooner into Tampa it will be going full tilt but then surge wouldn't have a chance to pile up as much.






Sucking dry air? From where? The eye appears to be going overland in the next day however the W/W NW side of the storm will stay over HOT water for the entire time it's over Cuba, no matter if it is inland a bit or if it comes in around the tip that points to Cancun.. Storms usually go to Cuba to die, but that's when they're going West and prolonged over the mountains of Cuba.

They don't go there to die when they're basically going north over some of the lowest sea level parts on what appears to be the thinnest strip of land in all of Cuba. Even though Ian is going slow, it won't even be over Cuba longer than a very small period of time versus a lot of "normal" tracks.

If it weakens from Cuba, it will be tiny compared to normal...that is to say that there are a lot of people looking at this like "yeeeap, heading over, Cuba, going to drop all it's energy and turn it into a TD, just like most times!). This isn't that, and some like me see it getting WORSE even though it's over land because it'll still be taking in warm water out of the Yucatan Channel the entire time it's over lCuba until it gets into the Gulf. At that point, it possibly EXPLODES into an H4...maybe FIVE within a day and a half..

The high that is forecast to affect the storm when it's nearly on Florida will most definitely weaken it, but that's after a lot of Gulf.

Lastly, I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The modelling doesn't seem to EVER give enough consideration to SST's. The WORST air pressure this is "forecast" as having is 950ish? I find that VERY hard to believe. Seeing as how every inch of where this storm could go is 30C-34C, they're YET AGAIN ignoring the fact that WHEN Ian gets a defined eyewall(could be now/south of Cuba for all the data we can see), the storm is likely going to have SCARY hot water to spawn more outlying storms from. If it gets that hot water for very long before the high moving in from the North hit's it, the storm is going to explode, and I don't see any modelling that currently captures that at this point. Heck, we could see the high bumping Ian further out into the Gulf for a longer period of time while the low and high duke it out to see who is stronger. *sheug*.

The day I meet a Met who takes SST's as serious as he/she should, I'm going to buy them a drink.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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IsoFlame
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114283 - Mon Sep 26 2022 05:47 PM

Last few hours of daylight vis loop shows a small eye emerging:
GOES 16 GeoColor Visible satellite loop
Intensity only ramps up from here next 36 hrs. Some guide\ance suggests the forward speed will slow Wednesday afternoon and a brief stall for 24 hours is possible just offshore SE of St. Pete Beach. If this plays out, a long duration storm surge approaching 12' could SLOSH up Tampa Bay. Add 3-5" (locally more) of rain and there will be catastrophic flooding throughout the Bay's watershed..

Storm surge warnings now extend from TB all the way down to Everglades City.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 66
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114284 - Mon Sep 26 2022 05:49 PM Attachment (34 downloads)

Quote:

Sucking dry air? From where?




Here is the 700-300mb and 500mb Rh for Wednesday afternoon.....There's more than a little dry air available.



[image]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092612&fh=24[/image]


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 359
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #114286 - Mon Sep 26 2022 05:56 PM

With slow down, and bad conditions north, dry air ect, why not head east with it and go for better conditions.. just saying maybe north then North north east early, putting south Florida at risk... just speculation, only EEMN ensemble member supporting that today.

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114287 - Mon Sep 26 2022 05:59 PM

Quote:

SFWMD updates all the models it can every 6 hours, some of them are still the older runs

12Z GFS Is a direct hit on Tampa as a strong cat 3.




See, other than that, most models aren't painting that sort of intensification outlasting the high coming from the Southwest, and I don't believe them,

There's too much hot water and time for Ian to grow for it to just shed possibly 70MPH of strength.

What the Mets on all the tv stations should be screaming about is some very intensive storm surge that even if the stop slows, is going to keep moving, even if the intensification drops. How many times are we going to see "Whew...storm's an H1 but wait...10 footers just took the entire shoreline out in (insert place that thinks billions of tons of windswept water just stops if the wind slows).

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #114288 - Mon Sep 26 2022 06:02 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Sucking dry air? From where?




Here is the 700-300mb and 500mb Rh for Wednesday afternoon.....There's more than a little dry air available.



[image]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=midRH&runtime=2022092612&fh=24[/image]




He's talking about it over Cuba tonight, not when it hits Florida in two or so days. Reads the whole post pleases. It has and is going to have more moisture than it needs for most of the next 2+ days.

Needs to be said that it's an H2 despite that jenky-looking eyewall. Pressure down to 972, and they think this is going to make a fairly decent walk across the Gulf and end up at like 960 when it gets to the other side? Ummm...

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.

Edited by Psyber (Mon Sep 26 2022 06:10 PM)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114289 - Mon Sep 26 2022 06:30 PM

Quote:


He's talking about it over Cuba tonight, not when it hits Florida in two or so days.




Incorrect - I said later on this week. Specifically referring to landfall in the big bend.

A storm needs more then just warm water, case in point it struggled for the last 3 days due to wind shear. Similar shear is forecast when or if Ian makes it far enough north. The NHC shows at that in 72 hours (2pm Thursday) it’s located at Clearwater Beach with 85 MPH winds.


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114290 - Mon Sep 26 2022 07:03 PM

Quote:

Quote:


He's talking about it over Cuba tonight, not when it hits Florida in two or so days.




Incorrect - I said later on this week. Specifically referring to landfall in the big bend.

A storm needs more then just warm water, case in point it struggled for the last 3 days due to wind shear. Similar shear is forecast when or if Ian makes it far enough north. The NHC shows at that in 72 hours (2pm Thursday) it’s located at Clearwater Beach with 85 MPH winds.




The storm is getting everything it needs and, like all these "bizarre storms," has the potential to surprise people more than just looking at flat data that we consider for storms. It just did a rapid increase of intensity in less than three hours of 15MPH, which was not forecasted by the NHC. (an H2 before hitting Cuba). It wasn't supposed to be a hurricane before Cuba in a lot of forecasts two days ago, and now we have an intensifying H2 that doesn't even have a visual eyewall.

The point is that I'm aware of and can see the wind sheer ripping bands off the storm. I can also see that it's organizing itself quite rapidly despite that wind sheer. I suppose I messed up in my assumption of him meaning the second high that's coming later that hopefully saves Florida but then again, most people on here (sorry, don't deny it I've been watching it since being here for Katrina and am surprised my tongue hasn't totally been bit off) that most people don't give a crap about a storm until it starts to threaten the continental United States. Puerto Rico hadn't even gotten close to being fixed from Maria and Irma before Fiona this year. Their dead were measured in the thousands when they get hit in 2017, a number that would make people drop dead from the shock alone if it happened on the mainland. After they buried the dead that fell dead in shock, they'd send so much physical and financial help that they'd have people fighting over just where to put it all.

This is why I assumed he meant the sheer coming up to knock the storm down over Florida versus right now. I apologize for assuming that he wasn't commenting about something that only had the USA in its sights. Moist people (including all news shows) are already talking about Florida because Cuba doesn't really exist to them either

In any case, I'll clarify my point. The storm doesn't seem to care about the current wind sheer because it's now an H2. It looks to be going over the Western tip of Cuba so it's not going to lose much if any strength when it does it before hopping into the Gulf with more favorable weather.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.

Edited by Psyber (Mon Sep 26 2022 07:06 PM)


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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 66
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114291 - Mon Sep 26 2022 07:08 PM

Quote:

Quote:


He's talking about it over Cuba tonight, not when it hits Florida in two or so days.




Incorrect - I said later on this week. Specifically referring to landfall in the big bend.

A storm needs more then just warm water, case in point it struggled for the last 3 days due to wind shear. Similar shear is forecast when or if Ian makes it far enough north. The NHC shows at that in 72 hours (2pm Thursday) it’s located at Clearwater Beach with 85 MPH winds.




Exactly what I read.....Psyber needs to read a little better lol


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 359
Loc: Southeast, FL
Storm moving with the shear [Re: Kraig]
      #114292 - Mon Sep 26 2022 07:14 PM

When a storm moves with the shear. Its actually in a Supreme environment for intensification, why a ENE heading at any point will blow it up like Micheal, or Charley did, they turned with it. Irene in 1999 was supposed to go up ft.myers Tampa but turned east with it. Also frictional effects from land. The north gets dragg by wind coming off Florida peninsula. And the south clear over water pushes the center into the coast , then once that coefficient equalizes over land north push continues. Also the drag adds a sort of tightening to the whole structure why, I believe land can sometimes aid in structural organization of system... time and time again a system wraps up tight just as it's coming ashore. Not always but enough.

Edited by Robert (Mon Sep 26 2022 07:20 PM)


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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 66
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114293 - Mon Sep 26 2022 07:15 PM Attachment (36 downloads)

Quote:

It wasn't supposed to be a hurricane before Cuba in a lot of forecasts two days ago, and now we have an intensifying H2 that doesn't even have a visual eyewall.




Please see the attached graphic from 11pm Saturday clearly forecasting a MAJOR prior to Cuba.


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Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 359
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Storm moving with the shear [Re: Robert]
      #114294 - Mon Sep 26 2022 07:38 PM

https://youtu.be/Eoasp_l2B8w. In this video they show a high water mark from last major to hit Tampa back in 1921, looking at 15-20 feet of surge if it hits just to the north.. Been a hundred years since they took a direct hit from Major.

Edited by Robert (Mon Sep 26 2022 07:46 PM)


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GeorgeN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114295 - Mon Sep 26 2022 07:44 PM

Does anyone know why the GFS model has been pulled far off it's Mean value into this new and sudden plot departure? The UKMET has been predicting a more Southern FL landfall all along, but it's concerning to see the GFS pulled from it's previous course like this. Is there something in the UKMET that wasn't factored in, or just bad statistical analysis on the last GFS run? GFS Mean is still showing a panhandle landfall, at least the 1200 UTC shows it. I'm trying to figure out why the GFS has the sudden East, North, West, then East jog. It's like the storm is avoiding a deer in the road. The more I learn, the more I don't understand.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island


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