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The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts June 1st, 2023.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 80 (Nicole) , Major: 122 (Ian) Florida - Any: 80 (Nicole) Major: 122 (Ian)
 


Archives 2020s >> 2022 Forecast Lounge

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 148
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114364 - Wed Sep 28 2022 04:39 PM Attachment (41 downloads)

Question for the experts in our group:
Please look at the area with much less moisture I outlined in black in this pic: https://postimg.cc/hJ9b8Nd8
Could that be dry air weakening Ian and does that means that the flood risks are diminishing for Volusia County?
Thank you!

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall)

Edited by vineyardsaker (Wed Sep 28 2022 04:43 PM)


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IsoFlame
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114366 - Wed Sep 28 2022 04:51 PM

Quote:

Landfall 3:05 PM Cayo Costa winds 150 mph pressure 940 mb

Based on videos and other data there is some really bad surge south of center - the water level in Naples is 7 feet above high tide and that is open beach not a cove or bay where water can truly pile up.




Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda on north side of Charlotte Bay is a fairly populated area with a network of many finger canals off the bay. Given Ian's slow plod across Cayo Costa, with eye tracking up the bay, surge will probably arrive shortly.

We have friends that live on one of these relatively wind-sheltered canals. Charlie landfall put water over their dock/sea wall but didn't get in the house. Ian's slow motion is a more flooding/wetter Charlie. High tide this afternoon around 4 pm will coincide with the arrival of Ian;s west side and pile water up in the residential canals worse than Charlie.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Wed Sep 28 2022 04:57 PM)


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #114367 - Wed Sep 28 2022 04:55 PM

Quote:

Could that be dry air weakening Ian and does that means that the flood risks are diminishing for Volusia County?





Sure looks like it. During its entire run to shore today the SE quad has been dry.

However due to rotation Volusia has a strong onshore flow so for the next 12-18 hours there is still a flooding risk there. Once Ian gets far enough inland the wind will switch to an offshore flow and by then it should be out of juice.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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IsoFlame
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114368 - Wed Sep 28 2022 05:06 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Could that be dry air weakening Ian and does that means that the flood risks are diminishing for Volusia County?





Sure looks like it. During its entire run to shore today the SE quad has been dry.

However due to rotation Volusia has a strong onshore flow so for the next 12-18 hours there is still a flooding risk there. Once Ian gets far enough inland the wind will switch to an offshore flow and by then it should be out of juice.




Only measured 1.25" today (so far) on the coast in DBShores. I'll be surprised if we top Mathew"s 8" total.

Based on forecast track with center exiting possibly exiting around NSB or maybe a bit south of there, I believe east central Volusia will be on the southern edge of the heaviest rainfall. I expect areas further a few mile inland (Deltona-Bunnel) and north of me (Flagler Beach, Palm Coast and St. Augustine) may get the 10-12"+ that models advertise. .

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114369 - Wed Sep 28 2022 05:06 PM

Ian's back to hugging the E side of guidance again. Good call by NASA to put Artemis in the shed.

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IsoFlame
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 237
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114371 - Wed Sep 28 2022 06:05 PM

Quote:

Ian's back to hugging the E side of guidance again. Good call by NASA to put Artemis in the shed.




Hourly weather round up for east central Florida @ 5 pm about half of what we're currently getting up the coast 50 miles to the NNW of KSC:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php...&glossary=0

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Kigeliakitten
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 3
Loc: Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114372 - Wed Sep 28 2022 07:00 PM

The last time I went out and emptied my rain gauge here around the corner from the Central Florid Zoo, we were up to 84 mm for the day.

--------------------
Kigeliakitten here and everywhere on the web including Ravelry.


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #114373 - Wed Sep 28 2022 07:22 PM

Quote:

This thing will come ashore in the Captiva/Cape Coral area. It didn’t listen to the models at all the past week.




Sadly, some models had it as high as 975mb which, given the construction of the storm, was just wrong. I figured 930, which was a bit low but not that low. I still don't know why they thought Tampa Bay was going to take so much storm. It's like the models didn't see the curve ball. Perhaps too much hope for the incoming jet stream? It came too late. God, Bradenton must be getting an absolute deluge of water. Like Hurricane Harvey over Texas kind of rain and storm surge.

Removed part so some people are.

As for the models, many of them had Ian getting hit with a huge drying piece of the jetstream while still out to sea because many of them were aiming the storm higher towards Tampa Bay...giving the jetstream time to beat on the storm. So no, other than general direction, A BUNCH of models didn't have Ian sitting half over Bradenton, Florida/half over the ocean, churning storm surge and twenty for hours or more of rain on basically the same spots.

Win. lose or draw, with global warming 100% being a thing, we're in this together.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.

Edited by Psyber (Wed Sep 28 2022 10:53 PM)


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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114374 - Wed Sep 28 2022 08:11 PM

Hey, this site is for discussing tropical storms! The current storm is Hurricane Ian. And, OH NO it doesn’t need to be said on this site! Leave the politics at the door!

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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 66
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #114376 - Wed Sep 28 2022 08:30 PM

Quote:

Hey, this site is for discussing tropical storms! The current storm is Hurricane Ian. And, OH NO it doesn’t need to be said on this site! Leave the politics at the door!




1000% Agree


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KornR
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 8
Loc: High Springs, Fl.
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114377 - Wed Sep 28 2022 08:45 PM

You are some kind of cocky canuck. Every thing you post is all "I said this" and "I said that".
Go back to the hockey site while we ride out our hurricane.
NO I really don't give a crap about your feelings, about how bad the world is south of you.

--------------------
"Honey, was that the cat that just flew past the window?"


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GeorgeN
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 33
Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114378 - Wed Sep 28 2022 08:58 PM

The UKMET was actually accurate since Sunday, and the Euro was there but it veered North then back. To say the models were wrong and you were right is inaccurate. To be right, you actually have to post a hypothesis and supporting data. Saying you were right after the fact is just boasting.
Some of us are living through this storm, and we come here for guidance and support.
Also Puerto Rico is not a state. They elected not to be. The US cannot force structure on them, just provide funding and hope for the best. If you insist on introducing political opinions, please be respectful and do some research.

--------------------
Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114379 - Wed Sep 28 2022 10:56 PM

This storm is crazy - on radar it’s 1/2 a cane: totally dry to the S yet super wet to the N. The center of pressure and rotational center are massively decoupled due to shear. This has spread out the TS wind field so it covers 80% of the state. The core is going to exit near Palm Bay / Vero while the NHC has the “center” exiting in Daytona. Never seen anything like this.

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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114381 - Wed Sep 28 2022 11:40 PM

Quote:

This storm is crazy - on radar it’s 1/2 a cane: totally dry to the S yet super wet to the N. The center of pressure and rotational center are massively decoupled due to shear. This has spread out the TS wind field so it covers 80% of the state. The core is going to exit near Palm Bay / Vero while the NHC has the “center” exiting in Daytona. Never seen anything like this.




With storm surge that's been reported up to 18 feet too. Imagine what that must feel like with nonstop rain.

The storm that never ends. The jet stream hitting it while it was still over the ocean was a terrible thing. When they finish writing the story of this hurricane, it's going to be like nothing we've ever seen before. The water deluge is just like when Harvey did it's disco dance over Texas for days and days to the tune of 14+ inches of rainfall.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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kapSt.Cloud
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 50
Loc: Long Beach, MS
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114382 - Thu Sep 29 2022 12:45 AM

“When they finish writing the story of this hurricane, it's going to be like nothing we've ever seen before.”

No need to embellish. You apparently haven’t been studying hurricanes for very long. This one isn’t going to be the hurricane of hurricanes! In our not too distant past there was Andrew in ‘92 a Cat 5 when it hit South Florida. Camille of ‘69 also a Cat 5 which hit Mississippi. Going farther back to ‘28 the Lake Okeechobee hurricane which moved the waters of the lake to land. Another Cat 5 the Labor Day storm of ‘35. The Galveston, TX hurricane which killed 5,000 to 8,000 people!

Then we have Katrina of 2005 which turned the three coastal counties of Mississippi into matchsticks! What Camille didn’t take Katrina did! Camille was wind. Katrina was storm surge. You can’t fight water. This current storm Ian doesn’t compare to the storm surge of Katrina. You wrote it was reported Ian caused a storm surge of 18 feet. We’ll wait for the facts. While waiting for the facts know this…the slab lot I purchased in Mississippi (the only things left in all 3 counties) had a storm surge of 32 feet!!

“…it’s going to be like nothing we've ever seen before.” Nothing but hyperbole! Know your facts please before you post!


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Psyber
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 230
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: kapSt.Cloud]
      #114383 - Thu Sep 29 2022 01:20 AM

Quote:

“When they finish writing the story of this hurricane, it's going to be like nothing we've ever seen before.”

No need to embellish. You apparently haven’t been studying hurricanes for very long. This one isn’t going to be the hurricane of hurricanes! In our not too distant past there was Andrew in ‘92 a Cat 5 when it hit South Florida. Camille of ‘69 also a Cat 5 which hit Mississippi. Going farther back to ‘28 the Lake Okeechobee hurricane which moved the waters of the lake to land. Another Cat 5 the Labor Day storm of ‘35. The Galveston, TX hurricane which killed 5,000 to 8,000 people!

Then we have Katrina of 2005 which turned the three coastal counties of Mississippi into matchsticks! What Camille didn’t take Katrina did! Camille was wind. Katrina was storm surge. You can’t fight water. This current storm Ian doesn’t compare to the storm surge of Katrina. You wrote it was reported Ian caused a storm surge of 18 feet. We’ll wait for the facts. While waiting for the facts know this…the slab lot I purchased in Mississippi (the only things left in all 3 counties) had a storm surge of 32 feet!!

“…it’s going to be like nothing we've ever seen before.” Nothing but hyperbole! Know your facts please before you post!




Look, I understand that you're very emotional and having a difficult time however, being rude and trying to cause problems doesn't help anyone. This is a forecast lounge for people to discuss storms. This isn't a met blog and you are not a met. So please, I encourage you not to say anything if you cannot say anything nice.

--------------------
The safest way to deal with a potential Hurricane hitting you...is to leave and just not be there at all.


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Rhino7170
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114384 - Thu Sep 29 2022 03:16 AM

You are an incredible a....... I wanted ti say this thoughout this whole thing. Please produce your claim of 80% correctness, highly doubt that. Are you a meteriologist? Do you have traing? Or maybe you are wanna be, which is my guess, you live in Canada, you have no idea of what we have here.

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Rhino7170
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: GeorgeN]
      #114385 - Thu Sep 29 2022 03:19 AM

Quote:

The UKMET was actually accurate since Sunday, and the Euro was there but it veered North then back. To say the models were wrong and you were right is inaccurate. To be right, you actually have to post a hypothesis and supporting data. Saying you were right after the fact is just boasting.
Some of us are living through this storm, and we come here for guidance and support.
Also Puerto Rico is not a state. They elected not to be. The US cannot force structure on them, just provide funding and hope for the best. If you insist on introducing political opinions, please be respectful and do some research.




His posts were so back and forth that he couldn't be wrong in his mind. He contradicted himself numerous time. No need for that attitude on this site that is a serious site on protecting people.


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Rhino7170
Registered User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 4
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114386 - Thu Sep 29 2022 03:22 AM

Quote:

Quote:

“When they finish writing the story of this hurricane, it's going to be like nothing we've ever seen before.”

No need to embellish. You apparently haven’t been studying hurricanes for very long. This one isn’t going to be the hurricane of hurricanes! In our not too distant past there was Andrew in ‘92 a Cat 5 when it hit South Florida. Camille of ‘69 also a Cat 5 which hit Mississippi. Going farther back to ‘28 the Lake Okeechobee hurricane which moved the waters of the lake to land. Another Cat 5 the Labor Day storm of ‘35. The Galveston, TX hurricane which killed 5,000 to 8,000 people!

Then we have Katrina of 2005 which turned the three coastal counties of Mississippi into matchsticks! What Camille didn’t take Katrina did! Camille was wind. Katrina was storm surge. You can’t fight water. This current storm Ian doesn’t compare to the storm surge of Katrina. You wrote it was reported Ian caused a storm surge of 18 feet. We’ll wait for the facts. While waiting for the facts know this…the slab lot I purchased in Mississippi (the only things left in all 3 counties) had a storm surge of 32 feet!!

“…it’s going to be like nothing we've ever seen before.” Nothing but hyperbole! Know your facts please before you post!




Look, I understand that you're very emotional and having a difficult time however, being rude and trying to cause problems doesn't help anyone. This is a forecast lounge for people to discuss storms. This isn't a met blog and you are not a met. So please, I encourage you not to say anything if you cannot say anything nice.




You've been an ahole this entire time..... Shut your mouth with what you think you know or show actual quulifications and your so called 80% bs you think you have, even tough you contradicted yourself numerous times on this very thread.


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JMII
Weather Master


Reged: Thu
Posts: 477
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Ian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #114388 - Thu Sep 29 2022 11:20 AM

Quote:

The water deluge is just like when Harvey did it's disco dance over Texas for days and days to the tune of 14+ inches of rainfall.




Ummm NO: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/fl/nwis/current/?type=precip&group_key=county_cd

Isolated locations got 12-14" of rain. The water you're seeing on the news is surge related. As Ian leaves the area the water levels are falling but still higher then normal, for example Ft Myers is still 3' above but that is way better then the 7' over-your-head situation yesterday. Unlike other inland floods these areas will drain back into the sea with the next 12 hours.

This was a large surge event from Pine Island Sound south to Naples and an extreme wind event localized to the Boca Grande, Pine Island, Sanibel, Cape Coral, Ft Myers, Punta Gorda area. Now this is a very densely populated part of SW FL where about 1.2 million people live so the cost in property damage will be significant.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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