kapSt.Cloud
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Loc: Long Beach, MS
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“ Best to keep a constant watch on this one. It's too soon after Ian. East Central Florida is still underwater.â€
I agree. It’s down to 998mb and slowing down. One poster mentioned the “Gulf stream†and the “warm Bahamian watersâ€. I’ve learned through the decades going back to Donna (1960) up to including Zeta and Ian we won’t know for sure until it happens. Until it makes landfall. Look at Ian which fooled even the . News crews were in Tampa because it was a sure thing the Tampa area was the target. Another was in 2004, the year of Charlie, Francis & Jean. was heading into Tampa then changed course and hit the panhandle taking out the Escambia Bay bridge.
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kapSt.Cloud
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Loc: Long Beach, MS
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One of our local weather forecasters actually said Orlando was possibly going to get a Cat 1. I would be greatly surprised if that occurred.
Now here we are in St. Cloud waiting and wondering if or how much Nicole is going to affect us. There are so many along the St. Johns River who are still flooded, so many without power after 2 weeks. Kissimmee flooded badly. Ian was one of the those storms which affected most of the state.
Too bad about your St. James City home. Black mold is nothing to mess with as it can be deadly.
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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Nicole is looking a little more organized now with water vapor filling the northern semi-circle.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Nicole is on it's way to becoming tropical. Recon is finding around 992mb now, so it's a bit ahead of schedule on that regard. Consensus shifted north toward Brevard, mostly because of the UKMet which is up toward New Smyrna Beach. Wouldn't be surprised to see hurricane warnings hoisted soon.
6z has landfall as a cat 1 along the Treasure Coast with a quick exit in the gulf just north of Tampa around Spring Hill, then another landfall near St. Marks
0z Euro has a strong TS (991mb, so it's already too weak compared to where Nicole is now) landfalling near the same area, but exiting very briefly in the Gulf from spring hill then back into Cedar Key.
0z Canadian landfalls as a borderline TS/Cat 1 storm near Palm Bay, but never quite gets into the Gulf.
6z Icon makes landfall near Melbourne as a Cat 1 then exits very briefly into the Gulf south of Cedar Key, then landfalls just north of Cedar Key.
6Z hwrf has a cat 2 into Melbourne, and exits quickly into the Gulf south of Cedar key and landfalls again just north of Cedar Key.
6z HMON landfalls near New Smyrna Beach as a borderline cat 1/2 and never gets into the Gulf.
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JMII
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Its getting there, currently everything is displaced to the N and E of the center but if it wraps up a Cat 1 seems possible. The TS wind field is massive especially to the N thus I think some people in GA and Carolinas might be surprised at how much "weather" they get from this. Still mostly dry air to the S. As predicted it appears to be leaving the frontal boundary that birthed it behind and transitioning into its tropical phase with a little ball of energy near the L center. With the track shifted N I don't expect much south of WPB unless it hugs the southern edge of the cone.
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Models trending more north and stronger coming out of the NW Bahamas tommorow- not good news for Volusia's battered coast with some homes and a few condos hanging on the edge with collapsed sea walls and compromised dune systems from Ian in late September. Huge TS wind field north of landfall will expand the impact up into NE Fla and coastal GA through several tide cycles.
The only good news is that Nicole will be moving definitively through east central and NE Fla so rainfall should not be as much of an issue as with Ian.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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CFHC
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Loc: East Central Florida
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Trend south on most of the 12Z models UKmet shifts to Vero beach from New Smyrna
12z and shows a strong Cat 1 near Jupiter
12z icon also shifted south to Jupiter.
12z Euro also showing Cat 1 near Jupiter.
12z HWRF shows a cat 3 landfall near Satellite Beach
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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Low and Mid Level Water Vapor satellite appears to show that Nicole is ingesting some dry air from the south and wrapping up to the Northeast.
Will this affect her strenght and/or track?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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GeorgeN
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Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
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Quote:
Low and Mid Level Water Vapor satellite appears to show that Nicole is ingesting some dry air from the south and wrapping up to the Northeast.
Will this affect her strenght and/or track?
If it's a lot of dry air, and enough to bring the storm back to subtropical; then the track could shift again. It changed after the storm became officially tropical. Waiting for the next batch of models to see if there is another shift.
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Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island
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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Her CoC seems to be exposed on Sandwich RGB. Can she recover when heading into warmer SSTs?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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JMII
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Just as she was starting to look pretty good Nicole sucked in a bunch of dry air which caused all the thunderstorm on the E side of the just formed eye to disappear. The only moisture is to the N and the really intense stuff is displaced nearly 180 miles NE of the center. The structure is there but the atmospheric fuel is missing. For the last 2-3 hours she has tracked due W. Despite the current weakness she is actually deeper (by 7mb) then the predicted.
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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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As I questioned in a previous post, it looks like she is experiencing a burst of convection around her CoC. Is this due to high SSTs? Will this be sustained until she landfalls?
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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OrlandoDan
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Loc: Longwood, FL
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Massive burst of convection now.
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)
Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67
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JMII
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
Massive burst of convection now.
Appears to have woken up after a night of stumbling and drifting south. Shear is keeping her in check but is slowly over coming the dry area to form a pocket of moisture around the core. Intensity models keep her at minimal Cat 1 status until landfall around Hobe Sound late tonight. Tracking will get easier with the visible satellite today and Nicole is coming into radar range plus Bahamas weather stations. The only strong winds are the NW quad. Overall large TS wind field with a small core, but once again it’s all to the N of center.
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JMII
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Based on the latest guidance Nicole is finally to the point where all motion from here on out should be W with more and more N as time moves on. In other words she will never get further S then the current location which is due east of Marsh Harbor in the Bahamas or Boynton Beach on FL coast. Recon finding 60 to 80kt winds NW of the center but nothing much to the S.
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Quote:
Recon finding 60 to 80kt winds NW of the center but nothing much to the S.
North loaded windfield compliment of the 50 mb gradient between Nicole's 985 mb and 1036 mb high anchored over New England. Almost half of the gradient (22 mb) is concentrated along Florida's east coast from Jupiter north to Fernandina Beach. Catastrophic coastal erosion is underway here in Volusia- millions of dollars of beach infrastructure crumbling into the Atlantic with each high tide.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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JMII
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Nicole continues with this pulsing type behavior where she looks good for a few hours then becomes more ragged. Motion by radar is still due west. About an hour ago (4PM) there was a large burst of energy to the E but that immediately got pushed S (due shear?) and never wrapped up. There is some strong bands to the NE... so she continues to try but is just sputtering along.
Landfall has shifted back N to the Ft Pierce area but not sure I am buying that yet, the mid-Atlantic ridge to the N seems to be staying put which will limit any N motion. There is flow coming up from Cuba which is stopping outflow on the southern side. It appears the Nicole is riding between these two features and thus only going west.
The TS wind field is over estimated especially to the S and W. Per the 's maps Tampa should be seeing TS winds already which clearly is not happening, heck its still not blowing that hard here on the east coast.
From the :
A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing Site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island has recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just east of Great Abaco Island, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h).
So not very powerful and ways to go before Cat 1 status with only 8-9 hours until landfall.
Due to the time change the next update is 6PM not 5PM... I had totally forgotten about that 
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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Kraig
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Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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They bumped it to Cat 1 Hurricane at 6pm, but I will be really surprised if there is more than 2 verified 75mph sustained wind measurements when it comes ashore in Florida. It looks so ragged in the satellite imagery, I feel like all the staff at the gave it the last lift necessary to get to cat 1 status but we'll see in the analysis. Also in the 6pm, the direction changed from 270 to 275 degrees but that is pretty minor but a change none the less. I also have doubts it'll make Ft Pierce, and suspect it will make Sewall's Point/St Lucie Inlet area just like and Jeanne did.
Just a reminder that the SFWMD Radar page has the official forecast line overlaid so it will become very easy to see if Nicole is on track or to the left or right.
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GeorgeN
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Loc: Wesley Chapel FL
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The 7pm shows a 600 mile, fully circular, hurricane force ,wind extent.
At this point, I'm going to stop believing there is intelligent life at the .
If this was true, everyone from Atlanta to Cuba should be experiencing hurricane winds.
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Wesley Chapel FL - since 1990
Previous resident of North Miami and Merritt Island
Edited by GeorgeN (Thu Nov 10 2022 12:23 AM)
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JMII
Weather Master
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Loc: Margate, Florida
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Quote:
They bumped it to Cat 1 Hurricane at 6pm, but I will be really surprised if there is more than 2 verified 75mph sustained wind measurements when it comes ashore in Florida. It looks so ragged in the satellite imagery
Agreed, unless it suddenly strengthens significantly this is no hurricane.
Of course as soon as I think there is no way for it to move N, not only does it do just that it actually appears to be N of projected. However in my own defense the eye opened up so much it didn’t “move†it just reformed in a different place.
Whoever made this graphic should be fired: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/002404.shtml?cone#contents
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