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The area in the central Gulf of Mexico has a 20% chance to develop in the next 7 days. Likely to bring rain over Florida this weekend.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 203 (Nicole) , Major: 245 (Ian) Florida - Any: 203 (Nicole) Major: 245 (Ian)

General Discussion >> 2023 Storm Forum

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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4490
Loc: Orlando, FL
2023 Season Number guesses
      #114534 - Mon May 01 2023 07:38 AM

12-4-2 for me this year

12 Tropical Storms
4 Hurricanes
2 Majors

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Storm Tracker

Reged: Sat
Posts: 330
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114535 - Tue May 02 2023 09:14 AM

This year I'm going with 13-6-2 Plenty of time to get ready and prepare. After last years smack on Floridas west coast I think it's really a good idea. The season will be here before you know it. Good luck to all.

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Thu
Posts: 943
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114536 - Sat May 13 2023 08:03 AM

My WAG is 12-3-1



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Storm Tracker

Reged: Wed
Posts: 238
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114537 - Fri May 26 2023 09:53 AM

15 TS
7 H
3 M

Have a gut feeling that the still recovering central and south Florida peninsula will be in the crosshairs (of what is forecast to be an "average" season) once again.

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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Sun
Posts: 67
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114538 - Sat May 27 2023 10:09 AM


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Weather Hobbyist

Reged: Tue
Posts: 55
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses [Re: Kraig]
      #114539 - Tue May 30 2023 09:57 PM


Guessing more storms than a usual El Niño year but less potent.

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2186
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: 2023 Season Number guesses [Re: MikeC]
      #114541 - Wed May 31 2023 09:51 PM

Greetings and good luck with the contest!

This year the downstream impacts of a forecast El Niño, if verified, may compete with a tendency for otherwise neutral to possibly very favorable conditions in the Atlantic and make a much larger than normal range of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts. In fact, a strong El Niño could easily bust all forecasts that are presently average to above average, while ENSO nuetral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña present), could allow for a banger of a season.

There's even a real possibility of an El Niño that does not result in the usual downstream windshear, and the UKMET office, which uses a robust "ensemble prediction system based on a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM)" is calling for just that, with 14-26 Storms, of which 8-14 become Hurricanes, of which 3-7 become Major Hurricanes, with an ACE of 222 despite El Niño! (LINK)

My once again slightly updated method I've toyed with over the years comes in at
TC/STCs: 15 (Likely range of 10-20)
Storms (AKA Names): 13 (Likely range of 8-18)
Hurricanes: 6 (Likely range of 4-8)
Majors: 3 (Likely range of 2-4)

This forecast for total number of "Storms" includes the already unnamed, pre-season Subtropical Storm that NHC found during re-assessment and made public on May 11: NHC Determines That a Subtropical Storm Formed in the Atlantic Basin in Mid-January 2023

Despite my best guess of an "about average" number of of total storms, hurricanes and majors, I see an average to above-average risk of US landfalls. And as always, "it only takes one."

2023 Forecast: 13 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 3 Majors

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