MikeC
Admin
Reged:
Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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12-4-2 for me this year
12 Tropical Storms
4 Hurricanes
2 Majors
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B.C.Francis
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 331
Loc: Indiatlantic Florida
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This year I'm going with 13-6-2 Plenty of time to get ready and prepare. After last years smack on Floridas west coast I think it's really a good idea. The season will be here before you know it. Good luck to all.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 952
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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My WAG is 12-3-1
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Michael
PWS
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 359
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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15 TS
7 H
3 M
Have a gut feeling that the still recovering central and south Florida peninsula will be in the crosshairs (of what is forecast to be an "average" season) once again.
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Kraig
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 85
Loc: Jupiter, Fl
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11-7-3
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EMS
Weather Hobbyist
Reged:
Posts: 56
Loc: St. Petersburg, Florida
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16-5-1
Guessing more storms than a usual El Niño year but less potent.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2473
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Greetings and good luck with the contest!
This year the downstream impacts of a forecast El Niño, if verified, may compete with a tendency for otherwise neutral to possibly very favorable conditions in the Atlantic and make a much larger than normal range of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts. In fact, a strong El Niño could easily bust all forecasts that are presently average to above average, while nuetral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña present), could allow for a banger of a season.
There's even a real possibility of an El Niño that does not result in the usual downstream windshear, and the UKMET office, which uses a robust "ensemble prediction system based on a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM)" is calling for just that, with 14-26 Storms, of which 8-14 become Hurricanes, of which 3-7 become Major Hurricanes, with an ACE of 222  despite El Niño! (LINK)
My once again slightly updated method I've toyed with over the years comes in at
TC/STCs: 15 (Likely range of 10-20)
Storms (AKA Names): 13 (Likely range of 8-18)
Hurricanes: 6 (Likely range of 4-8)
Majors: 3 (Likely range of 2-4)
This forecast for total number of "Storms" includes the already unnamed, pre-season Subtropical Storm that found during re-assessment and made public on May 11: NHC Determines That a Subtropical Storm Formed in the Atlantic Basin in Mid-January 2023
Despite my best guess of an "about average" number of of total storms, hurricanes and majors, I see an average to above-average risk of US landfalls. And as always, "it only takes one."
2023 Forecast: 13 Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 3 Majors
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged:
Posts: 391
Loc: Plant City, Florida
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Hope it's not too late to get my guesses in. Although looking active early with El Nino coming on I am going with.
Named Storms: 17 (mostly because any breath of strong wind seems to get named these days)
Hurricanes: 6
Major Hurricanes: 2
Looking forward to the discussions this season!
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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