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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 297 (Idalia) , Major: 297 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 297 (Idalia) Major: 297 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Storm Forum

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MikeCAdministrator
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2024 Predictions
      #114850 - Mon Apr 01 2024 07:00 AM

June 1st this will lock down.

Mine is high (for me) 21-9-4

Although others and CSU's prediction are coming on April 4th.

Site updates for 2024 will be showing up over April. I've been trying to move the site to a different server but that's not been going well so far.


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B.C.Francis
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #114854 - Tue Apr 23 2024 10:42 AM

I'm going with 22-10-7. It wouldn't surprise me if 1or 2 of the hurricanes go super major with Cat 5 or higher ??? like Dorian or Typhoon Tip to mention a couple of monsters. Cat 6 cyclone is not out of the realm in both basins Pacific and Atlantic. Good luck to all.

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ftlaudbob
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #114855 - Sat Apr 27 2024 01:40 PM

This season could be crazy! I am going with 22 11 6

--------------------

Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #114857 - Tue May 07 2024 08:51 AM

I am going with 24-14-7. Watch out Florida! I see that the Bermuda High will be parked somewhat further west than last year and with the onset of La Nina and warm SST I see there is no way for Florida or the GOM to be out of harm's way. Good luck to us all. be prepared.

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________2024 Forecast: 24/14/7________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


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Bloodstar
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: rmbjoe1954]
      #114858 - Fri May 10 2024 11:41 AM

I think it's going to be an active season, but not quite active enough to require going into the new list (I'm sad, I really liked the alpha, beta, gamma, list... it let you know we were having a very unusual seasons). I think the Multi-Decadal Oscillation is starting to decline in the Atlantic, but it's hard to be sure with the overall SST temperatures rising. We're also moving from an El Nino, to a La Nina pattern.

18 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 5 Major Hurricanes.

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M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
NOAA MADIS/HADS Programmer
U. Arizona PhD Student


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EMS
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: Bloodstar]
      #114860 - Thu May 23 2024 02:18 PM

20/10/5 and hoping other factors (e.g. Saharan dust) counteract La Niña!

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IsoFlame
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #114862 - Thu May 23 2024 03:16 PM

23-10-4

Looks like I'm staying close to your Mike, but I came up with 22-10-4 before logging in to the forum. Added one more 'cane to space my total out a bit more from yours.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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bob3d
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: EMS]
      #114864 - Fri May 24 2024 08:58 AM

Quote:

20/10/5 and hoping other factors (e.g. Saharan dust) counteract La Niña!



I am hoping for Saharan dust effect also, but I have a feeling it is not going to be our savior this season, unfortunately.

22-11-5 prediction

Edited by bob3d (Fri May 24 2024 09:12 AM)


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GlenJohnson
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #114865 - Tue May 28 2024 01:07 PM

19/9/5 - Hoping everyone is wrong. We'll see.

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M.A.
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: GlenJohnson]
      #114866 - Tue May 28 2024 10:50 PM

17/9/4

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cieldumort
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #114868 - Fri May 31 2024 09:36 PM

My read of the preseason predictors suggests roughly 75% odds of an above-average to record-setting season this year, about a one-in-five chance of an average season, and a very low but non-zero chance of a below-average season. I think the factor that could most impede or even prevent a very active season is the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which is notoriously hard to predict this early but that doesn't seem particularly in play, at least not yet.

While an important caveat to the above is that high numbers of named storms, hurricanes and majors does not necessarily equate to a higher number of US landfalls, my read of the preseason predictors also suggests roughly 90% odds of at least average numbers of US landfalls, with better than 60% odds of above-average landfalls covering all of the following locations: Caribbean, eastern Mexico, Gulf Coast states, US eastern seaboard, as well as eastern Canada and western Europe. Systems that could strike eastern Canada and western Europe would more likely be undergoing post-tropical transition, but be potentially still strong.

For the purpose of our 2024 preseason contest, my modified and updated method comes out with: 28 Depressions, 26 Storms, 13 Hurricanes and 5 Majors.

I see a most-likely (67% odds) range of 24-36 Depressions, 22-34 Storms, 10-16 Hurricanes and 4-8 Majors, with a season ACE of 204 ± 40.


26 Storms 13 Hurricanes 5 Majors


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Liz
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Re: 2024 Predictions [Re: MikeC]
      #114869 - Tue Jun 04 2024 02:49 PM

21/10/8

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