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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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MikeCAdministrator
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General Long Range Lounge
      #114884 - Sat Jun 15 2024 01:00 PM

This post covers areas that aren't well known yet, but are mentioned on models.

Starting off there's an area on 12Z GFS showing a depression or tropical storm making landfall near Jacksonville FL Thursday, area matches the weaker area shown on 0z euro (which is more toward Brunswick, GA)

Only thing likely here is some rain for Extreme Northeast FL and/or Georgia Coasts later this week.

12z euro shows this system closer to the Treasure coast of Florida thursday evening, entering the Gulf and making Landfall is eastern Louisiana friday night.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114887 - Sat Jun 15 2024 07:54 PM

This area is now tagged on the outlook with a 20% chance for development.

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Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114919 - Wed Jun 26 2024 07:36 AM

The general pattern for the longer wave on the outook is the "Caribbean cruiser" system. Meaning it doesn't really recurve at all, and goes right into Central America. This was the pattern suggested by the long range climate models for the long term, so it'll be interesting to see if the 6Z GFS which shows exactly this or not. 0Z Euro and the Canadian GEM model also show it not leaving the Caribbean, but weaker to much weaker than the GFS. If so it's more likely not to get north of the Caribbean than it would. Those in the Leeward islands will want to keep up with this system though, any impacts there probably are around Monday.

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