4PM CDT 11 September 2024 Update
Category 2 Francine still intensifying heading into landfall. 972mb 100 MPH.
3:30PM CDT 11 September 2024 Update
Recon is finding winds at flight level of roughly 100 knots and this is also supported by area radar velocity data. This would support Category 2 at the furface using a reduction of 85-90% or so.
Preparations to protect life and property in warned locations should be rushed to completion and shelter taken.
10:30AM CDT 11 September 2024 Update
Above from left to right: Hurricane Francine, Area of Interest, newly-tagged Invest 94L, Invest 92L and newly upgraded TD-7
Hurricane Francine is a very dangerous high-end Category One Hurricane. As the Houston area was recently reminded, even Category One hurricanes can pack quite a punch and do tremendous damage, and take lives.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS OF 10AM CDT 11 September:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans
Elsewhere, we are keeping a keen eye out for possible development off the southeast coast late this weekend or early next week. We are also keeping a lookout on newly Invest tagged 94L that is nearing the Antilles but has been in far less than ideal conditions for development, Invest 92L behind that with about the same environment, and way out by the Cabo Verdes we are tracking newly-upgraded TD-7.
The next names on the list are Gordon and Helene.
Original Update
FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE
Recon this afternoon is finding Francine deepening markedly since earlier today. In addition, based radar has already been advertising a fascinating inner eye forming within Francine's large eye, and not by the more usual processes of a classic eyewall replacement cycle. Plus, satellite imagery highlights a healthy upper-level anticyclone over the Gulf, which Francine is benefiting from. All taken together, forecasts for a very stout tropical storm to a strong hurricane at landfall look largely intact, and landfall is now just hours away.
It is expected that shortly before, during or soon after landfall, extra-tropical transition will begin, with Francine interacting with a non-tropical cutoff low presently over Texas, but not without still producing intense hybrid to ultimately post-tropical weather even well inland.
Elsewhere, way out in the Atlantic we are now also tracking newly-tagged Invest 93L, as well as Invest 92L and a few other lower probability features.
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