cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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4:00PM EST 4 November 2024 Update
EIGHTEEN has strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael. Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in short order, and has the potential to undergo RI as it heads towards Cuba.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN JAMAICA LATE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.5N 76.7W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas
10:00AM EST 4 November 2024 Update
Recon finds PTC 18 has become a Tropical Cyclone, therefore is now TD 18 and soon to become Rafael based on everything we see.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas
1:00PM EST 3 November 2024 Update
Above: Two Areas of Interest in the W ATL that have potential to become TCs within the next 48 hours.
Of greatest interest is Invest 97L, which early modeling suggests could become yet another hurricane in short order. Recon is investigating this incipient cyclone today, and the data collected will used by these models to greatly improve their forecast simulations going forward.
Original Update
Conditions favorable for a back-loaded 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season continue, and we are now watching four areas of interest in the Atlantic, one of which has been named today (Patty), and another that has just been Invest tagged this morning (97L).
Patty has become the sixteenth named storm of the season. A Tropical Storm Warning is up for all of the Azores islands in the northern Atlantic.
Closer to home, Invest 97L is likely to become a named storm over the next few days and interests in and around the Caribbean may want to begin paying closer attention. While models suggest a track towards the southern US is very possible, there are a number of known unknowns, and it is too soon tell. We are already doing some deeper dives into its potential in the Rafael Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2488
Loc: Austin, Tx
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2488
Loc: Austin, Tx
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 18:13Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Tropical Depression: Eighteen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 17:41:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15.04N 76.38W
B. Center Fix Location: 208 statute miles (335 km) to the S (172°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 679m (2,228ft) at 925mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) - Extrapolated
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NA
F. Eye Character: Not Available
G. Eye Shape: Not Available
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the WSW/W (259°) of center fix at 17:36:00Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 354° at 20kts (From the N at 23.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles to the W (265°) of center fix at 17:40:00Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 53kts (61.0mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (133°) of center fix at 17:51:30Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 210° at 38kts (From the SSW at 43.7mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 2 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) of center fix at 17:42:30Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 763m (2,503ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: 925mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph) which was observed 2 nautical miles to the ESE (116°) from the flight level center at 17:42:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
EYEWALL DEVELOPING NEAR CENTER
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