Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Yeah. Bring your surfboard. It should be great for swimming and surfing, but if the low hangs out beyond Friday, it's gonna suck to be in a boat. Also, if it were to develop into anything named, they'll probably order a mandatory evacuation of the island as they always do. In that case, just hang out in Leesville or Port Fourchon instead until they lift the order. If you're there to fish, fish the marshes north of Grand Isle (Golden Meadow, Leesville, etc.).
"Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area located about 270 miles southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana has become a little better organized. Upper level winds are expected to become more favorable over the Northern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and some slow development of this system is possible as it moves slowly weset-northwestard. An air force reserve recon is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow if necessary."
Something about hearing New Orleans and possible development just makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. Now if this was something legit, maybe my desk might have risen a few inches off the ground. 
Anyway, I'm thinking that the threat of heavy rainfall will still be between Waveland and Pensacola. I'm a couple of days late with my 6-7" of rainfall prediction because of all of the moisture coalescing (sp?) around the low rather than all across the northern gulf. So instead of the Tues-Wed period, it's more likely going to be in the late Thurs-Friday period. All models were running this thing up through the Panhandle, but I don't know for sure as I haven't looked at anything lately. If it stays weak, the eastern side will be the rainy side.
Cheers back at ya!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Can't believe you guys aren't talking about THAT yet....
Cat 2-3 storm near Apalachicola by Late Friday???
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002071012-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Discuss.
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Jason Kelley
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jth
Storm Tracker
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Do you really think this is reasonable? If this thing makes it to a minimal TS I will be impressed. Also, I think it will go a little west of there. Maybe between New Orleans and Pensacola.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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I dunno JK. I find the to be the hardest model of all to read. I just look for shapes and focus points on it, becase I've never really spent the time to figure it out.
It looks like the current surface quasi-circulation is somewhere due south of the AL/MS border around 87.6. I would assume that a new one would have to form further east under tomorrow's convection in order to blow it up to a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If it gets shunted out NNE or NE as most of the models want to do (and that would be by Saturday at the latest), I'd give it maybe medium TS strength of say 50-55mph.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Yeah I was looking at the test model run that the puts out when I ran across your post... then I went viewed the actual model run.... UNBELIEVABLE... I'm shocked...
A 926.9 MB with 104K winds.... That is truly unbelievable... now the big question you have to ask yourself is.... Do you believe in models? (I'm having a hard time in believing this one after what happened thus far in the season, but I guess we'll find out soon enought as this thing is basically right on top of the northern GOM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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On the other hand, I guess if you actually ANIMATE the animation mode and read what it says, it's not that hard to figure out afterall. LOL. I sucked at - UNTIL NOW!
Muhahahahahaha.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I don't know that I believe it, but we need to pay attention to it....here is why.
The was notorious last year in getting the "numbers" wrong (pressures and winds)...however, it did generally a very good job in "trends"...I think it's picking up on something, real or not, that I can't see...there is that ULL low to the east that is a hindrance, but if it gets out of the way the conditions will be VERY good for deepening.
Do I think we will have a 104kt storm late Friday? Not at this point. Do I think that something is about to happen? I AM leaning in this direction (the has been preaching development for quite a while now....)
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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thats a pretty normal run. notice that it initializes the storm a little off, better organized than it is. the model is believable in situations like this.. slow moving storm that intensifies rapidly.. only when a well defined center exists.
gfdl is only predicting that the low will focus and feed back on itself, after all hurricanes are only an efficient way to transfer atmospheric heat.. think of it like a heat siphon that builds on itself once it gets going. think of it as a leak in a dam that becomes a dam break. but the crack isnt there yet, even though convection on the south side away from the center of the low is rather robust at this hour.
i'll get worried if this persists... this is a slow moving gulf system.. but i'm not yet ready to hear the doom cries of people who think every invest will become a major hurricane.
show me a classified system, that is the test.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2014z10july
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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I will say one thing. I am taking a weather class this semester and I will say that I have a new found respect for those who read all of the models and charts. I would never want to do that all day long. Jason, I give you all of the credit in the world, man. Well, here is the ? I couldnt get any of the models up on my comp, it wouldnt load quick enough or something, but where if it develops will it head? Sounds like a poll coming on.... 
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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It takes a while to load up the animation on a dial-up connection...be patient...
The problem isn't reading models, it's trusting them...a good forecaster looks for reasons a model is wrong (IMHO)...instead of simply believing a model is correct. I'm NOT sold yet, and my thoughts generally echo HankFranks...but it does bear watching...
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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well joe B is watching 96L too, added a second post to his daily word. same sort of stuff being said here. basically once the progress starts that nothing should stop it.. unlike barry last year, which one could draw obvious parallels to. remember old 95L.. for another day it looks better over land than it ever did over water.
anyhow i looked at all the frames of on the psu model site.. they show more than just the 78hr time now, goes all the way out to 120hr. anyhow just funny to see an intact tropical storm coming right overhead here on saturday. sort of adds to the unreality factor. right now there is a struggling 1015mb low in the gulf, and had to go put visions of a major hurricane in everybody's heads.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2050z10july
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Amazing! Looks like Jason will be getting some o/t this week. Is the plane still going out tomorrow or are they considering going this afternoon? Will you have this new info on at 5?
Andy
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Well, my daughter's first Birthday is Friday...we were supposed to go out of town to my parents in West Alabama for a party...may send the wife and kids without me...
Yes, we will discuss the situation at 5, 6, and 10...probably not in depth at this point...(I'm NOT going on the air and mentioning the specifics of the GDFL!), but we will pay close attenion to it...
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 10, 2002
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Surface pressures are beginning to fall in the northern Gulf of
Mexico in association with the low pressure area centered about 265
miles southeast of New Orleans. However...satellite images indicate
that the thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Upper-level
winds are expected to become a little more favorable for Tropical
Cyclone formation as the system meanders in the north central Gulf
of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow...if necessary.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
Forecaster Avila
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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interresting to see the holds the system together as it heads NE across Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina to emerge off the coast near the NC / VA border as a 78 kt system, then deepens it again as it heads over the Atlantic. I dont think we will see development on the scale that this model is indicating, but development in to a TD then a TS, possibly a strong TS is quite possible once conditions approve. Also interesting to note that the surface pressures are begining to drop across the region.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Also interesting is that the has a similiar, but more tranquil solution with a closed low moving across the FL Panhandle and reemerging off the NC coast...
Don't like the much, but when it starts to agree with other models I pay attention!
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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As usual, us over here in the western gulf miss out on all the excitement. We just seem to get the ones that are suppose to develop and never do. What happens if this thing doesn't develop as quickly as the models are saying it will; will that give it a chance to move a bit further west than what they think it will now?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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We have a closed low in the Gulf?
Visible shows a clearly defined circulation, as does the latest QUIKSCAT passes. New convection appears to be trying to fire in the NW quadrant of the storm. JB is jumping all over it. And my daughter's 1st birthday party is Saturday.
How can something NOT form!?!?
(tongue in cheek mode OFF)
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Jason Kelley
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Just watched Joe b weather show and he saids that this would not weaking over land. I think he taking about a tropical low. But it sound like that even if a hurricane came inland that it would not weaken at all that would be the 100 year storm that can be that strong and stay over land that could be tropical storm or cat 5 hurricane the way he sided it. I no there alot of wet and the upper air but not enough to keep a powerful storm from weaking
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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has anyone noticed the increasing area of deep convection very near to the circulation centre? could this be the start of a possible feature? I am thinking that although it is still poorly organised, 96L might actually become the first system of the season now!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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