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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 84 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11526 - Wed Sep 10 2003 10:47 PM

Thursday Noon Update:
Models trended a bit northward this morning, making it somewhat less likely for Florida, still too far to say. Henri may want to make a small comeback as a depression before raining again on Southern Virginia. It may be a wildcard with Isabel too. Interesting setup.

Keep watching.

Thursday AM Update:
Looks as if Isabel has strengthened a bit more this morning, Dvorak numbers at 7.0 make it very close to a Category 5 storm. It's still moving west, the GFDL model has trended northward overnight, but its still too soon to tell.



Keep Watching folks.

Original Update:

Persistence... Models, ridge, and upper level low. Forward Speed, intensity.

All of these are on the mind as we look at Isabel, the story tonight. Last night I made the quick prediction that it would turn out to sea, but I now believe I am wrong on that, or at least the chance of it recurving isn't nearly as great as I believed.

Isabel is a very strong Category 4 storm, it may fluctuate in intensity, but I expect it to remain a major for a while. This could change next week as it gets closer, but all along the Southest East coast (florida to the carolinas) and Bahamas need to be watching this through next week. Will it go here or there? I can't answer that.

The ridge to the north as well as the low to the west of it are directing the storm as of now. It's moving westward and it'll keep that motion for the next couple of days. After that I think it will start to move northward, and the old "when will it turn" dilemma will show up. Will it make it to Florida? Will it head toward the carolinas, will it go out to sea? We don't know yet.

I don't think it will go into the gulf, if that makes any difference to all. I do think it will weaken some and then regain strength as it gets closer to land. I do expect the unexpected, so all of it could be wrong.

Persistance...
Models have been flip flopping, earlier it was more south, now its more to the north. I expect tomorrow it will be further south again. When Recon gets into the storm friday afternoon we may see changes for models Saturday. Watch it then. The shape of the storm is also important to watch, if it gets stretched more north-south then a turn is more likely.

Models...
Look at the links below for models, they are all fairly closely clustered, so its farily persistant. Minor variations aren't important the trend they take is more. Use them but don"t abuse them.

Ridge
The ridge above the storm is keeping it moving westward now. It could weaken as it gets closer to the west and move it more north-northwestward. The other is that the ridge holds and keeps it moving further west toward florida. Both can happen, I'm leaning toward somewhere in the middle. The weather channel favors keeping it moving west, I think it'll turn toward the end. Verdict: Hung jury, wait until the weekend.

Upper Low
Watch the upper low to the west of the storm, Isabel is likely to follow mainly in its wake, and it also will have some sort of effect on the ridge as well. Remnants of Henri also will mess with things.

More importantly ignore the forecasts for now and watch, see where it goes, take what you can find and take the word of the NHC over any of us. Anything referencing next week is just a guess until we get closer. It is important to note that I do think the chance of a US landfall is highly likely with Isabel.



For Isabel I'll be attending the site much more than normal over the next few days. And updating articles as needed and making new ones.

Think I'm wrong? See something I'm missing? You are probably right. Add a comment and we'll discuss.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 13 2003 09:45 AM)


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11528 - Wed Sep 10 2003 10:54 PM

Nice discussion by Franklin of the NHC tonight. The forecast track was shifted slightly north, but he emphasizes (sp?) alternatives. It's going to be a long weekend of watching way too many satellite loops and reading every post for this floridian...

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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Hey Clark
      #11530 - Wed Sep 10 2003 11:01 PM

LOL so for you to be chatting in here must mean something eh? What do you know that we don't? just kidding...thanks for the insights.

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Hey Clark
      #11533 - Wed Sep 10 2003 11:07 PM

This may be a close call but I wonder if this track will pivot around the 9-13-2003 12Z position

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11534 - Wed Sep 10 2003 11:08 PM

Your last sentence is the one I agree with most, "The chance of a U.S. landfall is highly likely." Winds now 145 mph with gusts to 180 mph according to the Weather Underground. Storm has also slowed and pressure down to Hugo level when it hit S.C.(935 mb). NHC even mentioning people on the entire east coast to review their preparedness plans. Local news reporting that Lake Okeechobee and local canals are being opened to drain excess water to more reasonable levels.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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hurricon
Unregistered




Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11537 - Wed Sep 10 2003 11:32 PM

you people are very busy guesing where this beast is going while every one of you have back tracked so many times. Before you say where you think it may go say there is a chance then all of you wont have to say rediculious things like where is my fork to eat my crow...duh huh this thing is to far out for anyone to say .



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11540 - Wed Sep 10 2003 11:38 PM

1. Site is designed for discussion and commentary.
2. We are probably wrong and i admit that all the time, and read the second to bottom line on every page on this site to emphasize what I think.
3. Don't insult folks, disagree, but don't insult please.

Balance between hype and awarenes is a fine line. Scaring folks is not the goal. Informating people to watch the system is. Title says "Isabel is a Week Away but still must be watched" fits that nicely. I hate media hype as well.

I try to keep this place pretty open to anyone, no registration requirements, just basically the honor system. On threads that go awry I usually move everything related to them off (it takes time to get rid of everything).

I tend to err toward being conservative, but If enough indications are there, not saying something is just as bad. People usually come to sites like this to read everyones opinions and help form there own. if they use any one of us as a decision maker, then they are foolish. Become informed, make up your own mind and then read the NHC advisories again. About the only real thing you can do right now is suggest that people along the coast go over plans if it may have to be put in use, but that really goes for any system.




Edited by MikeC (Wed Sep 10 2003 11:55 PM)


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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11543 - Wed Sep 10 2003 11:45 PM

I was waiting for that bit of info....where did you find that info? I figured they would have to begin draining excess water soon in time for the possibility. They learned their lesson with Irene in 1999. The next clues are up at NASA and how they will prepare. Doesn't mean much beyond that they believe there is a decent chance a threat exists next week.

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hurricon
Unregistered




Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11544 - Wed Sep 10 2003 11:45 PM

keep up the good postings storm cooper!
your not acting like an idiot trying to scare people the media does this enough.


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Questions
      #11547 - Wed Sep 10 2003 11:52 PM

A few questions for those more knowledgeable. In your opinion, how many days out do you put credence in the models? Why is there a magic number of 4-5 days where things seem to become "impossible" to predict? Why is the EMCWF so far south of the other models? At what point would you tune in to get realistic idea of a potential landfall? Are any of the models all that reliable without specific data from recon?

Sorry for the questions, and I know its not an exact science by any means, but reading these boards has made my head spin. I understand wishcasting, and I understand speculation. What I am looking for is the closest thing to a bottom line that you can give me, in terms of preparation.

I know the ultimate bottom line has to be "wait and see," to a certain extent. But if you had to make your best guess right now, based on history, intensity, and atmospheric conditions, what would it be?

Thanks in advance.

Brett

--------------------
South Florida


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11552 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:01 AM

I haven't erased anything, I've moved it elsewhere where the general public cannot see it. Anyone who wants to see what he wrote, email me and I'll send it in its entirety to you.

I'm doing what I need to do to keep it from becoming a shouting match. If you want it to be then I can give you information on how to get a host and set up your own hurricane site if you wish, and i'll even link it here for you.

Thanks.


Edited by MikeC (Thu Sep 11 2003 12:06 AM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11555 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:06 AM


Just for kicks, you don't see a windspeed probability table that looks like this too often:

Wind Speed Probability Forecast

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

Edited by MikeC (Thu Sep 11 2003 12:12 AM)


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Prediction
      #11561 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:14 AM

I suppose after posting all those questions I should at least stick my neck out like the rest of you and make an early call myself. I see Isabel following the ULL to its west on a west or slightly north of west track to just east of the southern-central Bahamas in the next five days. Reacting to the north-westward recession of the "remnants" of Henri, I see a slight weakness in the ridge at that point, allowing Isabel to turn more wnw to nw for a short period, while the advancing weak trough in the central U.S. slows Isabel's forward speed. This is where I see the crux of the problem. Does the exit of the trough that slowed Isabel just east of the Bahamas allow a weak or strong high pressure ridge to build in in its place? Strong high pressure building in to the west after the exit of the weak trough takes Isabel on a west track again, making landfall just north of Palm Beach County. A weaker ridge allows Isabel to move more north-westward, with landfall on the SC-NC border. Intensity? High Cat 2, maybe Cat 3.

I'll eat crow if it goes through the Florida Straits, or heads out as a fish.

Thoughts?

Brett

--------------------
South Florida

Edited by Brett (Thu Sep 11 2003 12:20 AM)


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11562 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:19 AM

Looks like their saying a better chance of maintaining current wind speed over say cat 2 in 3 days right?

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FloridaNative
Unregistered




Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      #11563 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:28 AM

In Orlando the TV Meteorologists are being quite responsible, not scaring anyone, but just making them aware of the storm. One channel did show (via their Future Track Program) the ridge that is holding Isabel in a westward track extending into Florida, but did give a disclaimer to say that its still a little early but wanted people to know that there is a possibility.

I am not sure if it is just me, but the TV Folks seem pretty jittery tonight. Normally they seem optimistic (oh this is gonna miss us, etc..) tonight they really did not give any optimism.. Havent seen them behave like that in awhile.

Of all people I am hoping this stays out at sea, this is not a storm we want anywhere.. I have been through, and had my house destroyed in Andrew (92) as I lived in So Florida at the time (I am Florida Native..) I do not want to live in devistation again.. Riding out the storm was an adreneline rush for sure, but living with no water, electricity, air condition, windows, roof, working toilets, as well as food and water ( I was prepared but my food and 5 gallon water containers must have also flown away with the rest of my house)shortages for months after the storm sucked .. So in my humble opinion, looking at it on the satellites is enough for me... This storm definitely is not something you want in your backyard as your life for the rest of 2003 and way into 2004 could turn into living hell..

Regardless, I am prepared if something does happen. They way it looks now, its gonna be close.. Kind of a dejavu, though we could all get lucky and this storm dies suddenly (we have all seen some strange things happen to storms, as if aliens are protecting us (oh not that again)..




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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
looking for an escape
      #11564 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:31 AM

the NHC is leaning on the northward models now.. net difference isnt all that great. takes the movement vector towards central florida.. but as time goes by the five day position just gets closer. if that SOI indicator plays in, i'd interpret the movement to be this: ridge weakens on september 15-16.. then builds back in. so maybe more NW movement early next week, then bending back westward. speculative, as the globals still haven't shown any kind of real ridge weakness.. just that shortwave for mon-tue. i'd expect that by the end of next week the storm will have hit somewhere.. large area of possibilities.. florida to the carolinas. that's based upon the forecast longwave pattern that doesn't show much of an escape route for isabel that doesn't involve hammering somebody. anyhow, to follow up ed's isabel forecast for 12Z saturday, i'm going to add another similar forum post.. another guesscast in a situation that is potentially more grave. say what you like about scare-mongering, but those 5-day official forecast tracks aren't making the southeastern u.s. very comfortable either.
HF 0431z11september


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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
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Re: Questions
      #11565 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:39 AM

Brett, I'll try to give you my personal feelings on the topic.

I tend to only put confidence in the models in the 1-2 day time span, sometimes looking out to 3 days if there doesn't appear (in an actual analysis, not a model forecast) to be a major pattern change or weather system in the region at that time. The errors just add up - maybe not linearly, maybe not exponentially, but they do add up.

Why do the errors add up? Well, models (due to computing power) use a defined grid of points layed out on a map, oftentimes between 40 and 130 km apart, depending on the region of the model. Mesoscale models, such as the MM5, can have resolutions as low as 5km, but you won't get the full picture there. Thus, if models can only accurate resolve features on these types of scales, it may miss something in the mesoscale (i.e. 0-40km) that is important to the overall weather pattern. It sounds insignificant, but it really isn't.

Another thing affecting the models: the vast majority of the models are initialized off of the GFS output, whether current or up to 6hrs old. These include the ETA, the GFDL, the BAM_ series, and most of the statistical/limited area models. NOGAPS, UKMET, and the MRF do not use the GFS for initialization, I don't believe, though the GFS is really just the aviation run of the MRF (unless they've modified it from the initial purpose of the model). Thus, if there is some error in the GFS initialization, a good number of the models may pick it up as well and expound upon it in their output.

On smaller time scales, these errors aren't as significant - +/- 100mi, though that's still not particularly good - but on larger time scales, you can have errors over the range of the Florida coast. Truthfully, the way the models performed with Fabian may have been their best performance overall with a tropical cyclone to date, and may be considered an abberation until further detail may be available.

The models may not be as accurate over the ocean due to the lack of data. All that's out there are some occasional buoys providing surface data and some ships providing the same (along with the occasional upper-air report). Compare that, for instance, to the network base over the United States at both the surface and upper levels. Lack of data produces poorer initialization - and the cycle above takes effect.

Finally, some of these models are designed to perform better with particular types of weather events. The global models tend to perform better with mid-latitude systems and/or tropical cyclones affected by such systems, while the dynamical, statistical, climatological, and specially-designed tropical models tend to do better in the tropics but not do as well when a mid-latitude system comes into play.

If I had to make my best guess right now, I'd say the entire East Coast needs to be prepared. My feelings are that the high will build west with Isabel, but only to a point. The flow will become much more complicated, though I think the trough assoc. w/ the remnants of Henri (where there are actually two circulation centers now) will not be a major player. Isabel will respond to the flow by slowing its forward speed - though not stalling - and moving more poleward. Remember, these systems (due to the Coriolis effect) want to tend to the north anyway. That's partially why the old SW movement predictions weren't reasonable. I'd place the areas +/- 50mi of Miami as well as from Daytona Beach to Wilmington in the greatest watch region - but that's as close as I'm willing to say. Intensity? Short-term, we might see further strengthening. Cat 5? Probably not, though. The storm should level off, maybe weaken slightly, then perhaps intensify as it reaches the Gulf Stream. Future intensities depend on the eventual path of the storm...it could weaken, or hold its own, or even strengthen slightly. Regardless, Cat 3-4 is not out of the realm of possibility.

Then again, at this time, nothing is...not recurvature, not stalling in the Bahamas, not moving through the Fl. Straits, nothing. Well, except for moving east or something like that, but I think you get the idea.

Hope this helps, and isn't just a diatribe on the models.

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Brett
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: Questions
      #11567 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:52 AM

Not a diatribe at all, Clark. Actually, very informative for someone unfamilair with the models in general, other than being able to see the result. It helps tremendously to recognize that most of them are based upon the initialization of the GFS...or rather, that most could be starting from an inaccurate vision of what is currently out there. I follow what you are saying re: the future path of Isabel at this point. One more question though. Given your knowledge, at this point, or from now to Sunday, what is it that you will be looking for in terms of developments that will fine tune your forecast? What do you think are some of the signs in the atmosphere that we can look to to draw closer to figuring out where she will go?

Thanks for the help Clark.

Brett

--------------------
South Florida


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Questions
      #11568 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:55 AM

clark, guess you're one of the people trying to hack it over at the met. dept. good to see a fellow nole on the board. sophomore year calculus had my number, hopefully you've gotten through that to the fun stuff. you may not have noticed it, but your posts are gold.. you just took a bunch of information scattered on the net and condensed it into an easily understandable synopsis. kinda wish they were in one of the topic forums as info.
anyhow, i just posted 'isabel challenge 2' on the forum.. which will require a more ballsy guesscast than the first, as i'd imagine most of the positions will be very close to a landfall. i failed to note this, but anyone who chances a forecast, feel welcome to add your reasoning.. discussion is what this site is all about.
gotta sleep some, y'all take it easy.
HF 0455z11september


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Random Thoughts
      #11572 - Thu Sep 11 2003 01:27 AM

I'll keep this short - its late and I've had a couple of long days. The lack of sleep will probably become SOP for the next week for most of us. Most of you know that I have a low tolerance when someone attacks the individual rather than the message. Until Isabel has done her thing, whatever that is, Mike, John and I intend to enforce that philosophy. Please remember that if a post is removed, it will also remove any responses to that post - even innocent ones - so just be understanding if you happen to have a post thats caught in the middle.

After two days away from the site, I had a lot of reading to catch up on, and until the incident this evening, there was a lot of great dialogue with some good humor sprinkled in - great reading!

It looks like a serving of crow is certainly in order next week - just don't know who gets the meal yet. Is it John and myself, or is it Bill and Mike ?

Justin in Miami: Oh what an understatement - busy indeed!

Clark: Welcome aboard - great material.

Mary K: Wednesday NASA Emergency Management gave a heads-up to all their folks - and it was a real eye opener. I don't even work for NASA and I got the chills!

On the Models: Run-to-run variations occur based on the quality of model initialization data. Not just the storm data, but the position/strength/motion of other Lows and Highs and troughs and ridges. A poor initialization on any one factor can lead to a different model solution and the error gets magnified as you move ahead each day in the forecast. So 5 days is about the limit before minor errors grow to big adjustments in the forecast.

Forecasts beyond about 4 days are entering the realm of best-guess speculation - even for supercomputers. Use them Cum Grano Salis (my Latin teacher would almost be proud).

Isabel: Thursday - more details tomorrow night (make that much later today). Suffice to say that weather folks all over the state of Florida are getting very nervous about the potential. This is one time that the hype that you'll hear won't really bother me because it'll get people to at least pay attention... and if you haven't already figured it out, I don't expect any significant turn to the north.

The Melbourne-Titusville area has never suffered a direct hit from a major hurricane in 152 years and I look forward with great hope that the record can extend to 153 (and don't read any landfalling speculation into that - much too early yet, but long range atmospheric patterns would suggest that the east coast of Florida is under an increasing risk).

Stay cool and get your rest - we are all going to need it (so much for 'short').
Cheers,
ED


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