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News Talkback >> 2003 Storm Forum

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
isabel challenge 2
      #11566 - Thu Sep 11 2003 12:46 AM

on september 6th, ed dunham gave us the isabel challenge.. the challenge was to use your amateur forecasting skill and place the center of the storm to within two degrees and intensity to within 10kt on 12Z september 13th... on at the time a lowly tropical storm in the eastern atlantic. right now it looks like storm cooper will come closest, as his position isn't far removed from the NHC's forecast. if the intensity isn't signicantly lower by then, everybody busts, as no one guessed higher than 110kt.
but, here's another opportunity to place isabel a week out:
where will isabel be to within 2 degrees, and how strong will the storm be to within 10kt, at 00Z on 18 september (thats 8pm eastern wed. september 17th)? post any time tomorrow.
HF 0445z11september


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11569 - Thu Sep 11 2003 01:00 AM

i'll go first.
isabel 00Z18september
29N 77W
120kt
i'm obviously reasoning isabel will make landfall, and think it will be a major hurricane. in this case i'm picking the odd zone between daytona and charleston for landfall, which is a rare area for a big storm to go. but i'll chance it.
HF 0501z11september


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11570 - Thu Sep 11 2003 01:12 AM

I'm gonna go with a fish spinner and send the storm out to sea as it approached the Bahamas.

30N 74W 95K

My first instinct was that it wasn't even going to make it that far west and we'd be looking at 71W....


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11573 - Thu Sep 11 2003 01:33 AM

27N 78W, 95knots

(First inclination was 28.6N/79.4W)

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11580 - Thu Sep 11 2003 06:29 AM

Isabel September 18, 2003 @ 00Z

23.7 / 71.6 100 knots

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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FlaRebel
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 59
Loc: Tallahassee, FL
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11583 - Thu Sep 11 2003 07:28 AM

28.2 N 78.7 W
120 MPH


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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11592 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:38 AM

27.5N
77.5W
115 kts


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11594 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:43 AM

27.5N
76.1W
110 knots


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troy
Unregistered




Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11613 - Thu Sep 11 2003 10:16 AM

74.2W
28.3N
115knots
heading just a tad north of wnw
trending slightly downward in intensity



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Mindbomb
Unregistered




Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11619 - Thu Sep 11 2003 10:37 AM

My answer for the challenge: 28.5 N, 78.5 W at 112 Kts (off the coast of the Georgia-Florida border). Prediction sidenote: I am up here in VA Beach, getting married on Sept 20....outside. So, of course, my prediction stalls Isabel for a day or 2 off the coast, then she heads north, aided by that slowly moving advancing front. Isabel makes landfall near the SC/NC Border on Sept 21 -Sunday and curls out to sea over eastern VA on Monday-Sept 22. Naturally, this assessment is based on my past experiences with emily, fran and other she storms not on my bad luck of planning a wedding during mid Sept.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11622 - Thu Sep 11 2003 10:49 AM

27N 79W NoGap,GFS show hole thier on day 7 on 500hpa there almost all models are keeping Izzy low with slight been N at 120hrs.110knts

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Jim M
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11696 - Thu Sep 11 2003 04:18 PM

29.8N 78.9W 95kts

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Clark
Meteorologist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc:
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11748 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:12 PM

This is tough....many, many possibilities.

I don't think Isabel will have made landfall at that point in time. I do think it'll be near the Gulf Stream, and I don't buy a substantial weakening trend between now and then.

My best guess? A WNW trend for the first few days, with a slow forward speed, followed by some jogs both NW and W. As for a position and intensity estimate?

28N, 76W, 120kt.

My best guess for beyond that places the greatest threat between Wilmington and Daytona Beach...my eventual track thinking is not far off from HF, in calling for a possible uncharacteristic landfall region.

But with this kind of forecast, I'm probably way off!

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11751 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:19 PM

In reality, mine anyway...I still hold to a position @ 9/13 12Z of 22.8 / 63.2 @ 95knots. I see I may come close on track but may blow the kt/mb. I would like to see a turn north and it still may happen but as of this am I see it as I posted this am at 23.7 / 71.6 9-18 00Z. Maybe the factors will be very different then and let her spin fish

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11754 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:21 PM

Here's what I think....

26.4N
74.1W

Max winds..... 110K
Direction WNW at 9K with a forecast to shift to a more NW direction... potential impact to SC and/or NC...


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11757 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:37 PM

23.5n 69.9w 115 knots

Hope I'm wrong and its farther North and East.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11758 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:42 PM

Well its time to sign in. Did this at work so I'll probably go down in flames with it because of the recent slowdown (but I'll have lots of good company). 18/12Z 28.5N 76.9W 115kts
Moving NNW at 14kts.
Guess it would help if I forecasted for the correct time:
18/00Z 27.5N 75.5W 115kts
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Sep 11 2003 08:47 PM)


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11762 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:54 PM

Yep! Some of us be burning, that is the way it goes I guess. I feel pretty good about it right now but..time...time...time!

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11763 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:58 PM

Wow. There are a lot of similar predictions (relatively similar on a global/oceanic scale). It seems as though everyone has it south of the GA/FL border - a bit East of C-N FL, some further south. Everyone's got it at least as a Cat 2 - mine may be underdone @ 95knots.

As for the ultimate landfall, I've already put mine out in the last news article. I'm calling for landfall between Charleston and Wrightsville Beach next weekend (Sunday - no way to tell). As noted in that thread, Super Typhoon Maemi offers a shot at some real clues 6-10 days downstream in the US. It doesn't often happen this close, but you might recall both of the storms originally were bottom heavy, and both developed into classic, intense storms.

I guess we'll see.

Awesome indeed.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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joepub1a
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
Re: isabel challenge 2
      #11765 - Thu Sep 11 2003 08:59 PM

27.2N 78.5 W 105 kts.

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