MikeC
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Just showing some model runs here, general idea is it's the only one with a really decent chance to develop on the outlook, no invest yet but could be tagged today or tomorrow.
GFS Ensembles, show the first wave remaining weak, second wave mostly going north, but a few ne runners. Takeaway is that it'll probably move north of the Caribbean, and wind up somewhat near Bermuda.
Euro is less likely to develop the western wave, but the eastern one does develop, more than likely staying east of the Caribbean islands, and getting relatively close to Bermuda.
Deep mind shows more impacts to the Eastern Caribbean, although weaker, if the storm remains weak the more of chance it has to become less, still odds favor it staying east of the US and relatively close to Bermuda here also.
0z Primary Euro has it missing the Caribbean and getting close enough to Bermuda to feel the western edge.
6z keeps it away from the Caribbean and comfortably east of Bermuda.
0z Canadian gets it into the Caribbean and curves it over the turks and caicos islands and out to sea, but it could get close to Bermuda there also.
Right now it's observe phase to watch for settling with model trends, and also awaiting invest tagging for later to help improve the overall forecast. Nothing concerning yet, other than saying hey Caribbean, watch this and see what happens. There's still quite a bit of shear ahead and most of the ensembles don't get too strong with the system.
The Area of Interest we have been monitoring (low pressure in the eastern Atlantic ~ Disturbance 15), has been Invest tagged this afternoon, 92L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 11 2026 03:20 PM)
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CFHC
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Newer deep mind is a bit mixed. 12Z moves it into the Caribbean islands and it falls apart.
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cieldumort
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E ATL AOI presently centered about 10N 30W per as of 1AM EDT today, as seen above as a red x.
8/11/26/0z run of the Google DeepMind FNV3 ensembles shows only a handful of the primary 50 members developing a TC in the tropical Atlantic at all, and it is actually not clear if what these ensemble runs are developing is even this particular area of low pressure (Disturbance 15).
No development at 48 hours out (8/13/26/0z)
A handful of ensemble members kick off development well east of the red x,
all the way out to south of the Cabo Verde Islands, roughly near 10.5 to 11N, 24 to 26W.
By 120 hours out (five full days), a few more members generate a TC around 38W. The image
below includes both those that developed sooner and south of the Cabo Verdes and those that
developed later, near 38W, making it look as if there is some overwhelming consensus of models
forming a tropical storm, when really it is still just a modest percent of members.
Going out a full ten days (240 hours), a still modest percentage of these ensemble members did develop a tropical cyclone in the central Atlantic.
Of those that did, a healthy percentage do find the survivor candidates mostly strong or even intense tropical cyclones by this time,
most with a tendency to begin gaining a lot more latitude.
Going all the way out to the end of this run (360 hours), a small handful of these surviving candidates are left, only the strongest, most of which have recurved. Three threaten the US.
TC-ATLAS' FNV3 50-member overview of Disturbance 15
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MikeC
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the atlantic systems are still all fairly elongated, so there may not be any invest tags today. Generally it likely will stay more west if it remains weak/disorganized, anything that actively develops it much takes it north. So odds favor the system remaining disorganized or relatively weak unless it slips through a hole. General conditions in the Atlantic are not favorable for development this year, so it's usually best to be concentrate on finding for the cases that would keep it from developing, and finding the lack of those is when the concern goes up. Right now there's enough factors keeping it weak that its little concern.
Western wave was dropped to 0.
Edited by CFHC (Tue Aug 11 2026 09:31 AM)
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cieldumort
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Big jump up among the FNV3 ensembles this afternoon, now assigning an implied 53% chance of development, which looks reasonable if not maybe even a little conservative. still at 70%. Environmental conditions for TC genesis are not ideal, but far from prohibitive, and the low pressure is already fairly well defined.
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cieldumort
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Challenging environment at the moment and still yet ahead for 92L, which is closing in on depression status, nonetheless. Most intensity guidance keeps the tropical cyclone, assuming it does form, from getting very strong (low to maybe mid-range Tropical Storm, and even that could be difficult with a giant wall of shear to climb). OTOH, if it pulls off a trick and intensifies boldly, sooner, it could recurve, avoid the worst of the shear wall, and exceed those modeled expectations.
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cieldumort
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It is now becoming clear that the disturbance Google's DeepMind FNV3 ensembles have been ramping up in fact is not Invest 92L, but rather the wave behind it (Not yet Invest-tagged, but which we also have opened up a Lounge on).
18z FNV3 ensemble members largely wash out 92L either just before or soon after entrance into the Caribbean.
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cieldumort
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Brutish conditions 92L is running into tonight. The system's center is roughly in the middle of the drawn-in black circle below. The wave is already starting to encounter shear on the
order of 15 to upwards of 35 knots. Along with nearby dry air that occasionally gets drawn in, it's tough going for an MDR wave in August, 2026.
A glance of the 0z globals+hurricane models tonight (image credit: Tropical Tidbits), does showcase that in general,
there seems to be increasing confidence that at least some semblance of a tropical cyclone makes it into and/or even through the Caribbean
Intensity-wise, most guidance keeps this at best a low-end Tropical Storm throughout
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cieldumort
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Water Vapor imagery paints a picture of both 92L and 94L behind it just squeaking through the harshness that is the Tropical Atlantic in August, 2026.
Image credit: Weathernerds.org
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cieldumort
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8/13/0z DeepMind FNV3 ensemble suite has dramatically backed off development potential for 92L, now at just 12%, with all but one member falling apart before ever reaching the Caribbean
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