MikeC
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Models generally not enthusiastic still for next week, exception being the 18Z ensembles from google's deep mind model
 
Generally still fairly unlikely anything develops.
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MikeC
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There's nothing too concerning on the long range. Remote possibility something forms after leaving the Carolina coast around June 29th, then looping back over Florida around July 1st and into the Gulf, but currently unlikely. (GFS keeps it weak). Google's deep mind has a few ensembles that develop it, however.
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MikeC
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0z Showed it in the west Gulf, 6z backed off, the google deep mind still has something trying to form off Florida then moving over Florida (some into the Gulf)
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CFHC
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12z Deep mind
 1
12z Euro ensembles
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CFHC
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The system offshore of NC is still around 10%, which seems accurate, the deep mind still shows 1/2 members developing it, but plenty aren't. It's setting up to be probably a fairly small area of rain, which won't help the heat wave all that much this week.
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cieldumort
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There are two very slim chance areas worth keeping an eye out on, the first simply because it is so close to home, the second for a very slim and outside chance of a long-tracker ~ that could be nothing more than a fish spinner even if it does get lucky and develops ~ but may become something to watch, at any rate.
1) Homegrown type feature as troughing digs into the eastern Gulf
2) Stout early season tropical wave presently in the far eastern Atlantic
No bid from on either area, yet, and there may never be. Slim odds, but worthy of general lounge mentions.
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vpbob21
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GFS and try to develop a system south of Bermuda in about a week. It tracks west to a couple hundred miles off the Outer Banks, then recurves out to sea. Looks like no real threat, although the gets it fairly close to SE Canada.
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MikeC
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Back, nothing really going on in the Atlantic this week or next it seems. El Nino, Shear, etc, are still dominant, although this is the time of year to watch the waves to see if anything slips through.
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CFHC
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Longer range has a bit of MDR activity, and there's a wave north (likely too hostile for development there)
The modeling does suggest something later though. Euro ai, also shows something in the MDR, bottom line, nothing concerning me yet.
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cieldumort
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Hawaii could be closely watching another approach by this time next week.
These AI runs are out to 10 days (240 hours) from 06Z today.
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cieldumort
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Now to 180 hours out from 8/9/0z. Approaches to the south of the islands are often of particular concern in case they track just enough to the right (to the north) as to place more of the Hawaiian islands within what is often the more potent side of a tropical cyclone, while also maintaining a track that tends to keep the system fueled over much warmer waters.
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cieldumort
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Conditions for development aren't looking particularly favorable for the two waves out in the far eastern Atlantic to central Atlantic over the coming week. Model support does exist for TC genesis, however, with only a short-lived and weaker cyclone/s that avoids most land the more likely outcome/s even among runs that develop one or both of them.
Classic strong El Niño outcomes
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MikeC
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Wave out in the Atlantic is the next one up for potential development, but the overall state is pretty hostile to development, a lot depends on if it finds a hole in the shear, with a split between the and Euro. IT has to actually survive the el nino induced , to make it here, but if it does it's likely to recurve, with Bermuda a potential area of concern. The Caribbean just needs to monitor to see if anything happens. Overall, again, it's unlikely anything significant develops, but it is something to watch.
 
euro ensemble
Deep mind:
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cieldumort
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VP200 outlook for October (image credit: Ben Noll). This would be a record-setting Walker cell anomaly that could shoot central and east Pac thunderstorm and tropical cyclone activity to the moon, while simultaneously shutting the door just about completely in the western Pacific, as well as giving the Atlantic MDR even more anomalously high levels of air subsidence. While this suggests air will be rising healthily across the Gulf, much of this region could often find itself under higher-than-normal shear. Nonetheless, the potential for development close to home in October still looks to be on the table, if for no other reasons than Central American Gyre and/or spill-over activity.
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cieldumort
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August 20th is generally regarded as the unofficial "real" start date of hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, when tropical waves typically find themselves crossing the Main Development Region of the Atlantic to become long-track cyclones.
Presenting: August 20, 2026 7-Day Outlook
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