cieldumort
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A robust tropical wave that has just rolled into the far eastern Atlantic from western Africa is being closely monitored by for development potential. Conditions for development in the Tropical Atlantic extending out to western Africa are less hostile than they had been over the prior days during the month of August, and it seems like this one has a better chance. Model support is pretty warm overall, but there has been some back and forth, and it is not yet entirely clear that the low several runs want to develop are in fact this exact disturbance.
Considering that this wave is expected to track further west under high pressure to its north, could perhaps impact some land in the very extended range, and is more likely than not to become a named storm, we are starting a Lounge on it at this time. There is not yet an Invest tag, but this should be assigned any day now. odds are 60% within 5 days for tropical cyclogenesis.
The robust wave we have been monitoring has been Invest-tagged this afternoon, 96L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
2026-08-24 18:00 11.0N 18.5W 20 KTS
Ciel
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cieldumort
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There is still quite a lot of dry, dusty air out there today. Some forecasts suggest that this wave should be tracking west while cocooned from most of it and/or that the amount of dry, dusty air will subside basin-wide this week.
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cieldumort
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The most recent full 1,000 member run of Google's DeepMind FNV3 advertises only a 15% chance of becoming a named storm, and if it does, it would favor recurving prior to a direct hit on land.
Image/graphic credit: TC-ATLAS
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cieldumort
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18z FNV3 out to 180 hours - Only a handful of members ramp up to at least 34 knots
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Google's deep mind is less enthusiastic about 96L this morning, but it's looking decent on satellite and the vorticity charts, so it may develop into something (70%) is pretty good right now.
The is the most agressive, the deep mind is one of the weaker ones (only a few even develop it),
Euro doesn't develop 96L at all, some ofthe ensembles do, but not the majority.
Overall if it develops strongly, it'll likely turn out to east of Bermuda, if it stays weaker it may/may not develop later, Bermuda needs to watch. It's extremely Unlikely to get to the Caribbean or US, but not impossible.
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cieldumort
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The most recent (Google) FNV3 ensembles advertise about a 4% chance 96L becomes a TD and close to 0% chance of getting a name over the next five days.
96L appeared to have a tight LLC overnight that has since fall apart. Convection never really organized around the fleeting well-defined surface circulation center and convection has been displaced even further to the south-southwest. Dry, stable air abounds to its north.
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cieldumort
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The most recent old-school models (Classic EURO, Classic , NAV, UKM) develop 96L into at least a depression. This experimental genesis product assigns an 89% chance for that.
It is worth highlighting that these models are becoming antiquated, and the , in particular, has performed astonishingly poor when it comes to TC formation, strength and track over the past year or so.
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cieldumort
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Looking at some of the conditions ahead for 96L, vertical instability in the Tropical Atlantic is starting to head up with climatology, but remains well below normal.
Area-wide sea level pressures remain above normal.
However, area-wide, shear is starting to approach normally climatologically favorable levels
In addition, thus far the cocoon of less dry to even moist air is holding. The system has a window of perhaps two or three days to pull it together, but after that, conditions for genesis may prove too difficult. Overnight tonight through tomorrow night may be the best window, tho genesis could occur as soon as later today. I think FNV3 is being far too bearish on its prospects, whereas is far too bullish. Probably give this one close to a coin toss of forming, personally. If it develops and stays weak enough to travel further west, those in the Antilles may be at some risk later this weekend and/or into next week.
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cieldumort
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Last frame of the most recent Visible loop of 96L clearly shows the elongated low level swirl once again losing its tenuous grip on the deep convection displaced by shear to the south and south-southwest. The disturbance still has some work to do, but all in all, maybe slightly better than a coin toss to get a name.
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MikeC
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Overnight operational models have given up on 96L, and don't develop it (although canadian attempts to, but fails late in the run). A few ensembles (not many) still get it going later. Worth noting, that if the system remains this weak it could drift into the bahamas and potentially try to form there (even then conditions may not be great for it to do so then) right before Labor Day weekend. However, odds still favor it staying weak/disorganized and recurve then. So it'll remain something worth checking up on, but there's really nothing concerning about it at the moment.
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cieldumort
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Scatterometer passes do show that 96L has been producing winds of up to tropical storm force. While the circulation has been elongated, there appears to be an attempt to re-consolidate further south and underneath the deeper convection. has eased up a little, now down to 60%, which seems reasonable. 96L's window to get classified is limited this week. If the system pulls it out in the next few hours, it could go straight to being named.
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cieldumort
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Convection is being challenged by the abundant dry air to its north and northwest, but shear is moderate to low and the low level vorticity seems to be a little stronger now. Additionally, subtle banding features are forming. Looks right on the cusp of being classifiable.
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cieldumort
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The most recent scatt pass indeed shows that the surface circulation is now relatively well-defined and has reformed south of where the center was prior (noted here with a red I for Invest).
There is still a little entanglement with the monsoon trof. If it breaks free, most likely straight to name.
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cieldumort
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Today's 12Z FNV3 is starting to cook on 96L again.
This time, a handful of the primary 50 members develop 96L within the next 48 hours, with all of those finding the system falling apart near the eastern Greater Antilles. However, after a pause, several members appear to pick the open wave of Dolly up and redevelop it near or over Cuba to the Bahamas, or in the Gulf. Those solutions advertise a direct threat to land in the extended range.
Very similar ensemble output from today's 12Z EURO AI
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cieldumort
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DeepMind FNV3 1000-member now up to a 33% chance of becoming a named storm. This is much higher than before.
330/1000 members develop into a 34+ knot tropical cyclone, median genesis time is tonight.
Credit: TC-ATLAS
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MikeC
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Looks a little better on satellite, but the circulation is still not great (elongated and not a real circulation), highly doubt this develops. It's similar to the systems last year that had some sign of potential development, but couldn't close off a low and never did. It is trying though.
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cieldumort
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I reckon that 96L is resulting in some debates inside tonight, as well.
My own read of the state of the system is that it is now more likely than not a tropical cyclone or soon will be. Being that 96L is so far out in the Atlantic, we are seriously lacking data. No recon, some quality-flagged if not very incomplete scat passes, etc.
This most recent OSCAT3 pass suggests that it is has a fairly well-defined surface circulation with just remnant troffing extending out towards the northeast. This pass also shows several pockets of tropical storm force wind.
On conventional satellite imagery (visible, IR and pseudo-daylight), the central convection is deep and becoming more concentrated, while there are also spiral banding features extending outward to a significant distance.
I'd place its odds at 90% of becoming Dolly within 48 hours, but I've certainly been wrong before.
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cieldumort
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Another significant increase in the percentage of DeepMind FNV3 ensembles that develop 96L into Dolly, now with 512 out of the 1,000 members in the most recent run (18z Thursday Aug 26)
Credit: TC-ATLAS
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