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Remnants of Dolly in the Tropical Atlantic tracking west towards the Antilles as a very robust open wave. Flash flooding possible. 97L now being tracked in N Gulf.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 689 (Milton), US Major: 689 (Milton), FL Any: 689 (Milton), FL Major: 689 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest 97L
      #116181 - Sat Aug 29 2026 09:35 PM



A fairly well-defined low pressure area has formed in the northern Gulf, presently about 125 miles south of Pensacola, Fl as of this update. Conditions are not especially favorable for further development at the moment, but are gradually improving, and given how close to land 97L is already, we are starting a Lounge on this Invest at this time. NHC odds have just increased from 10% to 20% for development within 7 days (and realistically could be as soon as very early next week).


ECMWF analyzed area-average shear across the northern gulf has been around 12 knots today, with 300-850mb RH of 57%.


However, net effective shear over the Low itself has been much higher, as can be seen in this 200-850mb shear analysis below:




As 97L tracks further west or west-northwest, conditions for development may significantly improve.
The latest ECMWF forecast for 18Z Monday calling for just 6 knots of area-averaged shear and a moist 64% RH in the 300-850mb layer.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Invest 97L [Re: cieldumort]
      #116182 - Sat Aug 29 2026 10:21 PM

8-29-26 18Z FNV3 ensemble run out to 120 hours


Worth keeping in mind, these plots of are of members to actually develop 97L. Most do not.



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