cieldumort
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A number of models are increasingly keen on the formation of a hybrid wet Nor'easter to fully tropical and potentially wet Sandy-like hurricane forming off the Mid Atlantic late in the coming week and/or into the coming weekend. While is not yet outlining this area, the signal is so significant and potentially serious (right now, lower odds but high ceiling on the impact scale) that we are opening up a Lounge on this forecast future cyclone, Invest TBD.
More to come.
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cieldumort
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ECMWF Forecast gusts for Friday Sep 25 at 8PM EDT
Credits: Weather.US and
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cieldumort
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Today's 18Z DeepMind WNv3 Ensembles out to 180 Hr mostly keeping offshore
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cieldumort
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The DeepMind FNv3 ensembles, which attempt to forecast the formation of warm-cored, tropical cyclones (as opposed to classic Nor'easters), most recently has increased implied chances of tropical cyclone formation in or around the Gulf Stream with this system to 27%, with a mean genesis time of 90 hours out from 18Z today.
Credit: TC-ATLAS
Credit: TC-ATLAS
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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DeepMind FNv3 ensembles continuing indicating about a 20-30% chance that this Nor'easter acquires tropical cyclone characteristics at some point during its approach towards the coast. While not highlighted by , most likely to prevent any confusion and mixing of public messaging, the internal structure of the forecast strong storm may affect future impacts in some subtle and potentially not so subtle ways.
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