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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Late Sept/early October hurricane (major?) in the GOMEX
      #116253 - Thu Sep 17 2026 11:09 AM

I keep noticing some modeling suggesting a spin up a low in the central Gulf toward the end of the month, with the last run of the AIGFS intensifying the system into a Major meandering around for days in early October. With seasonal near max Gulf water temps and weak steering currents, quite possible. An El Nino year Milton-like hurricane tracking west to east toward Florida?

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Late Sept/early October hurricane (major?) in the GOMEX [Re: IsoFlame]
      #116255 - Thu Sep 17 2026 10:35 PM

Neither NHC or CPC are biting yet.

I find the entire GFS family of models, including the AI version, to hallucinate an awful lot of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin, especially in the longer ranges, and even more so in the western Atlantic.




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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Late Sept/early October hurricane (major?) in the GOMEX [Re: IsoFlame]
      #116256 - Thu Sep 17 2026 11:59 PM

Today's "Happy Hour" GFS ensembles


Today's "Happy Hour" DeepMind WNv3 Ensembles


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Late Sept/early October hurricane (major?) in the GOMEX [Re: IsoFlame]
      #116270 - Thu Sep 24 2026 10:47 PM


Credit: TC-ATLAS

Today's Happy Hour WNv3 64-member ensemble (Most recent DeepMind version) : 19% chance of tropical storm formation. Median genesis time about 10 days out from today.

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