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TD NINE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. INITIAL NHC FORECAST OF CAT 2 HURRICANE. LANDFALL ALL BUT CERTAIN.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 726 (Milton), US Major: 726 (Milton), FL Any: 726 (Milton), FL Major: 726 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 92L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #116307 - Tue Oct 06 2026 12:04 PM

This morning's DeepMind FNv3 1000-member ensemble mean coming in as a 56 KT Tropical Storm at landfall late Friday overnight/predawn Saturday


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 92L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #116308 - Tue Oct 06 2026 02:41 PM

Even though it missed a lot, this ASCAT is compelling


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 92L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #116309 - Tue Oct 06 2026 04:06 PM

Advisories likely coming at any moment.

Even without a recon mission, I'll share some initial best guesses as to future-Isaias's peak intensity. This is not necessarily intensity at landfall.

Invest-only (Currently): 0%
30-35 MPH TD: 1%
40-50 MPH Tropical Storm: 3%
60-70 MPH Tropical Storm: 11%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 13%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 20%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 23%
Cat 4 Hurricane: 22%
Cat 5 Hurricane: 7%


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 92L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #116311 - Tue Oct 06 2026 06:15 PM

HIgh end Tropical Storm, however, I could be wrong, follow the official advsiores. If it makes it to the forecast windspeed it would take a Milton like fall apart (weakening) to drop down. Increases tornado risk for well east of Landfall if that occurs though.

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