IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Given the pattern of fronts pushing into Florida on a weekly basis (but not yet scouring out moisture for more than a day or two), followed by high pressure setting up strong onshore flow across the peninsula, it would not be an "October surprise" to see models start to lock in on a hybrid system spinning up in the Atlantic east of Florida and north of the Abacos later in October. Several recent model runs hint at this.
Regardless of cyclogenesis, multi-day episodes of strong onshore winds, especially during the last week of the month when King tides peak, could be very impactful along Florida's east coast.
I was 26 living on a sailboat working at a county park just north of Sebastian Inlet... the analog storm still etched in my memory: Nov_1984_storm.pdf
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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The most recent ICON run (15/0z) which this model sometimes sniffs out future development where other models miss earlier on, is definitely on board with the general idea, albeit perhaps a bit further north.
So, remarkably, despite the headwinds coming out of the eastern Pacific, the overall state of the Atlantic basin is one I wouldn't write off the rest of this month. Gulf stream probably bears some monitoring.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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This appears to be the feature hinted at by some long-range runs mentioned in the original post. FNv3 has caught on to it now, although with not very good odds of development, as of yet.
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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More Globals are picking up on this now. Conditions for development in the Atlantic basin are, on a relative basis, favorable this month, despite the very strong El Niño, and this potential Area of Interest deserves to be watched.
0z Canadian
0z AI
0z being spawns three. General idea of genesis remains.
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 419
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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None of the models have the elongated trough of low pressure stretching from eastern tip of Cuba N/NE through the Bahamas closing off until well out in the Atlantic. Given dry air in place over the Fla peninsula and the distance of the trough/potential low well east of Florida, precip will be limited to a spattering of fast-moving coastal showers. Still, the NE gradient will be tight over the weekend into the middle of next week as the king tides peak, so saltwater flooding along low-lying portions of Florida's east coast and significant beach erosion/overwash will be the greatest threats.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Fri Oct 23 2026 09:59 AM)
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