Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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We got hit pretty good here in St.Pete with one inch of rain this morning and more scattered showers in eastern gulf are heading this way.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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well the 0600Z run on 96L has again changed from the previous runs. The 0000z run did not really develop the system until it was close to emerging of the NC coast in about 4 days. However, the 0600z run keeps the disturbance poorly organised and 'open' for the first 30 hours (1200z Friday) but then deepens it to a Tropical Storm by 36 hrs (18z Friday). The then takes it inland near Apalachicola as a 50 - 55 kt storm around midday on Saturday. The centre is still shown as moving off the NC coast near Cape Hatteras at the 102 hr period, but is not deepened so much.
Rich B
GFDL Animation of 96L Forecast
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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i'm not sure what everybody is seeing. yes there are general pressure falls but pressures are falling everywhere because the surface high is out and the surface trough is nearing. visibles dont look that good, e.g., the low level center is elongated NE-SW and still located north of the convection. that upper low is moving in tandem with the surface low and keeping all the convection to the south. the SFC low is about a degree further north than yesterday, but still looks to be drifting west... maybe northwest. anyway i dont see it intensifying unless that dopey surface center refocuses elsewhere, like maybe under the convection.
i'm sort of a believer in systems getting choked for convection because it forms elsewhere away from the core, robs inflow. whatever surface low there is can continue, but never intensify... a zombie in the world of tropical systems. so basically i dont think it has a chance today. the convection will continue to brew in place, the low will drift around exposed, then by night the convection will die off and start again tomorrow. this process will either result in a tropical system tomorrow, if convection and low ever meet, or nothing as the low isnt staying out over the gulf for too much longer.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1641z11july
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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We have something brewing close to west florida and it would seem like all of the people over there would be jumping on it, but its realativialy quiet. Where are you colleen??? 
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Hey Gary, I'm over here near Clearwater Beach. Been getting lots of rain, water spouts it seems like every other day. Couple day ago we had 5 in one day. We complained forever about drought and now we're a Tropical rainforest. Been watching this system like the one in Texas before but to be honest with you it's getting old. Seems like every time a system crops up it has insurmontable obstacles to get past. Remember Steve Lyons saying he's never seem so many ULL in the gulf during summertime. Not a very good pattern.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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> Remember Steve Lyons saying he's never seem so many >Ull in the gulf during summertime. Not a very good pattern.
Was he saying that the gulf is going to be more active this year than was previously forecasted?
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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babycat upper lows in the gulf mean nothing good for tropical systems. the current one, for instance, is the reason 96L isnt arthur. ULLs only hang around for a few days, the fact that the gulf is full of them now means nothing for the season as a whole.
well anyhow i've got a hunch. if the center of 96L reforms today, it will do so about 100 miles SW of where it currently is (about 28,87). if it happens, fireworks begin at dusk.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1736z11july
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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HEy BabyCat. Yeah ULL's aren't good for development but I think the one out there now is far enough South that it may actually aid in rapid growth if the LLC gets going. I think it will if it doesn't run out of time, i.e. land. .
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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A look at surface streamlines still indicates its broad in nature and needs wrap up some more. Don't expect any TD/TS for at least couple days when the environment should improve.
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Anonymous-(Doug)
Unregistered
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Just looked at the storm floater loops..and it looks like things are focusing around 26/86...the surface low, if that is where it is, still has not moved to much in the last two days...about 100 miles since Monday...the influence of the upper low is almost invisible on the WV loop...like HF said this could go...I like the beginnings of an outflow that i see beginning over the Fla. Peninsula...this was stifiled for the last couple of days by the ULL that fell NE-SW, and now seems of no influence... the has said the upper air features would become more favorable as time went by...stay tuned.
EDS.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Thanks, Caneman!
I just would like to add in this topic that the Gulf waters may not be warm enough yet?!?
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Stormfan
Registered User
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Posts: 1
Loc: Orlando,Florida
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Looks like it's beginning to wrap up a little. Definately better upper support on the east side today and improving as the upper level lows retrograde sw. Tough time trying to guess where the LLC and upper support will merge, but the way the convection is increasing they are probably in the process of "coming together" now. I agree with HankF probably re-locate the LLC s to sw of current position. First post, I have enjoyed watching the banter for the last couple of seasons and am glad to interact with some fellow stormfans. Orlando: light shower, wind ssw/10 b 
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Hi Babycat try this link I think it will clear things up. Gary
http://grads.iges.org/pix/hurpot.html
Edited by garyb (Thu Jul 11 2002 03:38 PM)
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Thanks! Help is always appreciated!
I've been only watching tropical weather for a little while, maybe 5 years. The more your learn, the more you want to learn. I love this site and the people on it. I've been using the site for about 3 years but this is the first year I've actually spoke!
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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system has a confused look to it. more twist to the clouds further south where the convection has been going all day, but that is weakening. pressures have dropped some this afternoon, but they have also fallen through the entire region with daytime heating/cold front approach. the nice circular surface windfield earlier today is also distorted now, elongated, more connected to the convection.
so heres what i think.. convection is/was supporting a center reformation on the southern side of the low, somewhere, and now the convection is weakening as it seems to every evening. so what may happen is the center doesnt reform, but remains that dopey low level swirl until tomorrow. or maybe a low will form in a better spot, say within 100 miles of 26/89, and take over. or maybe it will form back southeast towards the fla keys. i really dont know what will happen, this is a sloppy system now trying to transition into something besides an LLC with displaced convection. the theme last year was low latitude systems that outrun their convection, then come together as they recurve out to nowhere. this year it seems to be systems that never come together for days in spite of opportunity.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2132z11july
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Dropping my chance it's going to develop. For one I'am thinking it's going to run out of time because trough is likely to begin pulling it north and shooting northeast. I'am not dropping the chance of development altogether but thinks it's really slim now.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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TWD says that the whole system has several small circulations besides the one we have seen all day on visible imagery. Perhaps the centre may therefore relocate / reform near the convection. Also, as the ULL moves out of the way it may give the disturbance a window to develop. I must admit that i dont expect to see much any time soon. GDFL now develops it rapidly as it moves of the NC coast in a few days again, taking it to nearly 100 kts by 120 hrs.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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In reply to:
We have something brewing close to west florida and it would seem like all of the people over there would be jumping on it, but its realativialy quiet
Hey Gary, We are here trust me brother !!!! We have had our share of serious weather here on the " Suncoast " I have been watching it for the past 3 days . Personally I am getting Prepped for the mighty month of SEPTEMBER !!!! LATER !!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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oh no, the convection is all gone again. worry not, it goes away every evening, it will all come back tomorrow, for a fourth day of *EEK* suspense. har har. the new twist for friday will be an elongated low that will more easily recenter itself. otherwise looks like july 12 will just be a rehash of 95.. 96.. whatever the invest number is.. theyre all the same. july 12 will be ssdd, if you know what i mean. or who knows, maybe this annoying system will finally stop toying with us and either go away or develop.
HanKFranK aikenSC 0311z12july
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Looks as if the morning visible has it "Drifting south" If we could get some persistance here, and some max noc convection we could be in for another Gabby. Looks like another rain band, squally, type of day here on the Suncoast. ........LATER !!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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