CFHC
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Posts: 164
Loc: East Central Florida
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The latest system is a goner, a victim of the Gulf's current state, whicih is the no Spin Zone.
It's just not going to happen, the last system had a fairly good chance of forming, but didn't to a variety of factors. Elsewhere, there isn't much going on. It is my guestimate date for first storm of the season (Predictions were made in this thread) of July 12th.
The upper level lows in the area have caused it to be an unhealthy environment for tropical systems. It could change later, so just because it is quiet now does not mean anything for the future of this season.
Anyone want to make updated guesses as to when the first storm of the season will be?
My new guess is August 8th, at 11AM.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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I will guess July 20th @ 5pm
I wonder if the storm got hit with dyno-gel????? 
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Anonymous-Doug
Unregistered
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much better on current PICS right now...have we killed this too soon?
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I'll say august 10th at 5am. Think we are going to have to wait a little while longer for first storm.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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well now everyone has given up on 96L it looks like it might finally be given one last attempt at making a go of itself. Satellite imagery shows convection across much of the NE GOM with a large cluster due south of the Mississippi Delta. The whole activity is heading to the northeast, but of interest is that large cluster mentioned just. This area has some outflow aloft, and there are some indications of a possible circulation. Remember yesterdays TWD stated that the broad low had many ill-defined circulations so i guess a reformation / relocation of the strongest circulation is possible. Although i dont really expect anything to happen it is interesting that the system looks healthier than it has done for days, and have dropped the pressure to 1010mb.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Kimmie
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Lousiana
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Looks like Florida is going to get some rain from this little system! At least it gave us something to talk about for the entire week! I was surprised to see the blow up south of La., so maybe there is a tad bit more to this system!
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Anonymous(Carl)
Unregistered
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I agree that we may have given up on this system too soon.
Cloud tops are now colder than at any time since its inception--and like rich said they seem to be concentrating south of the mouth of the Mississippi. What effect would a relocated center in that area have on forecast movement?
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Ruc 15z streamline analysis puts surface low near 29.5 N / 86 W. The upper low centered near 27 N / 86.5 W. The upper low is on top of the convection while surface low is about 40 nm from panhandle. So surface low should move onshore tonight, ending any chance for development.
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Alex k
Unregistered
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From what I see, there is still a chance,albeit feeble, for development. The convection is impressive, but I still believe it is associated with the upper level low. I could be wrong. Perhaps a new surface low is forming. Still it's in the gulf, so don't discount anything.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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It aint over till it's over. The Latest OSU Gulf weather depic/sat overlay shows a 3/4 closed circulation (every quandrant except NE), pressures falling at all points to the N and east of the convective cluster (all around 1012-1011, but bear in mind all the buoys are 50-150 miles from the "center"); and , most interestingly, the buoy about 125 miles se of the center (42003 I think) has w-wsw winds 25kts, gusts to 33kts.---at about 3pm.
Convection is buiding, appears a surface circ is forming---Earl? style hybrid transitioning to tropical?
IHS,
Bill
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well a look at 18Z streamline analysis shows the surface low has elongated. Pressure was 10.11 mb. Intresting mentioned in their 2 PM discussion that their is a possibility that a surface may develop further south. I'am not biting on that and feel it eventually be over taken by trough to north. Although I guess it's something to keep an eye on considering the rest of tropics are quiet.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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My guess is July 23 at 7:00pm.
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Kimmie
Registered User
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Posts: 5
Loc: Lousiana
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I am still sticking with my original guess of 7-27-02!
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I'll go with August 5th, 5 PM. Just a guess.
The tropics: It appears that our GOMEX system isn't quite done yet. The thunderstorm activity has become rather concentrated and intense today, but a true closed LLC remains to be found. I'm not giving up on it yet (I'm not giving up because the longwave hasn't sucked it north and east yet, plus the circ. could reform further south and west). It's not over until the fat lady signs.
There's also a wave near Puerto Rico, but further investigation indicates that all of the shower and limited thunderstorm activity is to the east of the wave, a sign of westerly sheer. I have noticed that these have been making it further west lately, and looking better and better while they're doing it. It may bear watching as it nears the western Caribbean, if it makes it there. It could also wind up out to sea because the trough to the north is semi-influencing it.
A poll...  
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Jeanine
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 36
Loc: Hollywood, FL
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Sticking with my original 7/23/02 8am 
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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An excerpt from the latest TWD:
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOWEST PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1011 MB NEAR 28.5N85.5W. IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER N AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NWD AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE ONE POSSIBLE CAVEAT IS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SW OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SHOULD THIS AREA PERSIST...A NEW LOW CENTER COULD FORM FURTHER SW.
The area of convection it is talking about continues to fire up, with new convection firing at the time i am making this post. Visible imagery also indicates some outflow aloft, and this area might bear watching!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
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Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I vote Aug 11th. It will develop and hit the Gulf Coast on the 16th @ around 11am. Because I wll be driving along the Gulf Coast at that time so that's how I know.
Unless something forms in the Atlantic and hits s. Florida on the 18th in the early morning.
Considering I have more time to drive along the Gulf, coast, I'd say that's the higher likelihood.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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completely useless, but why not:
monday, july 29th.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just for the fun of it: July 30th.
ED
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>June 4th, south of Bahamas at 11:00am. That will be a TD.
I hit the jackpot on that one. I must have been jonesing for the season  .
I kindasorta like the wave coming into 60 west. - pardon "The only card I need is the Ace of Spades, the Ace of Spades"" thanks -. A bit east of the southern end flared up pretty good today. That tells me there's a little punch down there. It's too far south, but if the northern end of the wave survives the graveyard - and it's gonna be tough, it might be the next thing to watch after the upper trof makes it down. Of course 96L could always emerge with some energy out in front of the trof and develop into something minor or subtropical in the Atlantic. So I don't want to miss out on being right if one of these ends up popping, but I guess I'll play it a little safer and say August 11, 2002 - one month from yesterday.
As to the here and now - youda thought we got 10" of rain by the IR on the Goes 8 today, but I don't think we got more than a 10th of an inch. But as promised, (and 2 days late) there were finally some 5-7" rainfall amounts on the northern Gulf today. Lower St. Mary Parish LA, parts of the county immediately north of Mobile County and the Natchez, MS/Tulullah, LA area all showed daily estimates above 5" before the NWS radars all went out this afternoon. There will be plenty more places picking up 6-7" tomorrow and Sunday.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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