caneman
Unregistered
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Gary, I'm confused. one post says disapated and other looks like real test. PLease interpet. Also, if indeed there is a system to watch, would you please provide a sat. link. Thanks
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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are they talking about the same system?? they seem to contradict each other for sure.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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cane man.. gary b is only posting MOS (model output statistics) for the different models on invest 97L. the one that says dissipated is , the others are tracking it.. while the intensity models have it strengthening. something to write home about, i guess. you guys arent kidding about the avn run on that wave that just came off africa.. there is a pretty good vortex with it at very low latitude. if it comes north a little and gets some thunderstomrs going on top.. it could be one of those instant storms. thats IF.. how often do these things hold together this time of year? not very.
for 97L things arent happening very quickly. convection seems to be trending up as time goes by, but still no well defined low. waters getting warmer, atmosphere getting a little less friendly. the trailer wave has less convection now, but the vortex with it is easier to pick out.. it isnt stuck in the . 97L keeps looking better though.. it cant improve much more without becoming a depression.
anyhow.. southeast atlantic looking perky, like it maybe will cough something up this week. sort of a drag if it does.. was expecting it to be less of a factor this year, with more close-in trouble. geez, its only late july.
HF aikenSC 1931z23july
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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One Model is from (GFDL)The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the test runs are models that range in complexity from simple statistical models to three-dimensional primitive equation models. The statistical and two-dimensional models are maintained by the Tropical Prediction Center (TPC). The three-dimensional models are maintained by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC).
Hope this helps Gary
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Caneman
Unregistered
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Thanks you guys.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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HAH, huge burst of convection with 97L in the last hour. TD coming. Cheers!! Steve H.
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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NOT ACCORDING TO STEVE LYONS ON THE WEATHER CHANNEL.. HE CIRCLED THE 2 WAVES AND MADE A STATEMENT THAT AS TIME GOES ON THIS AREA IS NOT LOOKING AS HEALTHY. WHAT IS GOING ON? SOUNDS LIKE A BUNCH OF CONFUSION. I HAVE FOLLOWED THE MODELS TODAY AND I KNOW THAT THEY ARE INTERESTED . WHY ARE WE BEING FEED THIS STUFF ON TV? 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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YA maybe TD woo hooo
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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IT SOUNDS MORE LIKE TV WOO HOOO TO ME !!!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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IT MUST BE WOO HOOO POWER OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT 
THIS HOUR THE THOUNDERSTORMS ARE BUILDING AND THE CONVECTION IS LOOKING BETTER.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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gee, they have the new eastpac system as a 45kt storm.. latest visibles are showing an eye. whoops. that sucker is revving up pretty fast. just looking at douglas too, i'd say their estimates were a little low. looked cat 3 to me yesterday, based on appearance.. not like i was looking at cloud wind vectors or anything.
97L is still sputtering along. convection o.k. but the system is still at only about 9N or 10N latitude, isnt going to really break out if its shell until the low becomes a bump on the as opposed to a max on a trough. slowly working its way just north of west it seems.
trailer wave skeletal. new east african low apparently ahead of its wave, not really together. the convection has already mostly blown off to the west and died, so it has to refire some or it will amount to nothing.
at this point i wouldnt be surprised if we have a depression by thursday.
HF aikenSC 2033z23july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Well after looking over tons of shear maps out 48 hrs, it appears that the is looking favorable with minor changes. So these next waves will need to be watched closely.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Sorry the above post was mine.
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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Yea Joe, looks as if the shear is going by the wayside , time to get this season started, AUGUST 1st .....hehee
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Just paid a visit to the TPC and was reading their marine weather discussion. Looks like the AVN has a fix on a wave that will be comming off the Africian coast tonight. AVN appears to be very agressive with this particular wave. Another bit of info. in their Tropical Cyclone Danger Areas has AVN followering a TC in 36 hrs. DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY MORE INFO. ON THIS?  T. Leap
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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the globals are all tracking 97L through the islands in a few days as a wave, all agreeing fairly well on the wave speed (with the mrf a little different, racing the new african low forward and merging them). for the sake of argument, say that 97L slowly develops. globals have it moving steadily wnw.. which teleconnects well with whats happening in the westpac (s.t. fengshen trucking WNW for over a week) in the 6-10 day period down the road. that would put a hypothetical system at the southeast coast around the end of the month. don't strongly support this solution, but at least some of the things are in place to let it happen.
HanKFranK 0207z24july
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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The wave axis is still inland over Africa and is associated with the impressive convection that just came off the coast.Your theory sounds fairly logical.Get a pattern started and off we go. T.Leap
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged:
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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ok, i am away for a few days and a lot happens!
looks like 97L is still holding its own with a reasonable signature on satellite imagery. Interesting to see how the invest has been maintained for a couple of days already too. It has also been assigned D-numbers of 1.0 and 1.0 early this morning. Yesterday although it was being monitored it was classed as 'TOO WEAK'. Satellite imagery does indicate some moderate convection associated with the wave, and also shows some shallow banding, both to the north and south of the main area of convective activity. I know it is still a low latitude system, but the motion to the WNW may lift it north enough to get kicking in time.
Anyway, i still think this bears watching.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Still looking pretty weak on early vis loop. Moving out of the slowly. Still evidence of a circulation though. Watch and wait. Other wave not looking too healthy as convection has died, and models do little with it that i've seen. Climatology affecting the east Atlanic stuff in July. But AVN seems to have backed off. Wait and see. Cheers! Steve H.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Hurricane Elida is the most powerful storm in the world as of right now. It has at least 110 mph, winds. In it's getting stornger by the the hour if not by the time, I'm done with this forecast. This almost has the chance to get as strong as Mitch of 1998 in the next few days. Thank god it's heading out to sea. Things to note with this hurricane very small eye, nice , cloud deck. Outflow all areas. Warm to hot SST and almost no shear. Forecasted to stay on a west to west north west track by many of the computer models. In to get to 130 knots by 48 hours. Than to move into cooler waters than after
Forecast
12 hours 105 knots
24 hours 115 knots
36 hours 120 knots
48 hours 125 knots
72 hours 100 knots or less !
Hurricane Douglas was once 90 knots or 110 mph wind speed, takin one minute winds. Now it's 80 mph winds in weaking fast, with the eyewal gone. The is ragged and cooler waters should kill douglas some what fast so tropical low in 48 hours. Bye Douglas
12 hours 70 mph
24 hours 55 mph
36 hours 40 mph
48 hours 25 mph
Atlantic is some what boring with just invest 97L. In the chance have want down greatly over night. With only a few thunderstorms near the closed low. Many computer models are opening this up to a tropical wave soon so this will be the last thing I post on 97L. But there still a slight chance.
The rest of the world 2 typoons in a poor on a invest.
Forecasted by Matthew
Morning poll
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