Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 275 (Zeta) , Major: 338 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1024 (Michael) Major: 1024 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: the Wave is there...
      #13268 - Mon Sep 22 2003 05:23 AM

Hey, I offically put the GOM on hold until you get back! Go TCB Coop an check in when you can.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)
      #13269 - Mon Sep 22 2003 08:11 AM

What will be left of Marty when (if) it reaches the SW US is going to be far from a "decent hurricane". The system will be dissipating and will just produce some rain (possibly some gusty winds)....but certainly nothing close to hurricane conditions.

Lou


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)
      #13270 - Mon Sep 22 2003 08:39 AM

Hey Domino,

I don't think that people don't care if AZ gets hit by a "decent" hurricane, but I don't think it will. By the time Marty travels that far north, it probably won't be Marty anymore. Most likely be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression.

Btw, I have never known a hurricane to enter AZ. Something to research. Have a good one.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Hurricane Marty ....dont think you guys get it here
      #13271 - Mon Sep 22 2003 08:53 AM

Maybe most of you have never lived in the deep SW as this is mostly an of Florida interest board but any amount of Tropical Rains in the ARIZONA area with any wind added in is going to cause some level of chaos. They don't need torrential rains with hurricane force winds for them to have flooding problems... small ravines or even dips in the desert that never flood given even a small amount of tropical moisture can create life threatening events and I imagine... a fun day for kids who rarely see that much moisture unless some wayward storm forgets to travel west into the Pacific.

Arizona..is NOT supposed to get Tropical moisture of any kind.. except in this situation..

Secondly, think its interesting that this is the second storm this year to insist on moving towards the East and not West (maybe more..Im not a big Pacific tracker) and anything that wreaks of a "trend" should be paid attention to by all of us over in this ocean... makes you wonder what is going on that is causing that...

I mean it caught my attention.

No... I thought it was very interesting, just didn't comment on it but I noticed and I wondered..

Just like to every season ... to every place they have their own weather and tropical moisture moving anywhere near Arizona should be watched by hobbiests of weather and they should be making you wonder.

As for that "Gale Center" ummmmnnnn sort of big, wish that thing down by PR would do "something" and if persistence is the key... load the long Orca loop I love and you will see what persists is the area in the gulf.. off tex/mex coast..hangs there and doesnt disappate... nice wave off of Africa

good luck cooper, bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
marty, dead atlantic
      #13272 - Mon Sep 22 2003 09:01 AM

very outside chance it will be a tropical storm when it gets there.. more likely a tropical depression or remnant low.
occasionally those eastpac systems take the forefront, but marty isn't going to have much left when it gets up into the southwest.
nothing on the horizon in the atlantic. big canadian highs descending may create that pattern that leads to development in the western caribbean before too much longer, but as of yet there are no model specifics. western gulf system is becoming frontally associated, atlantic waves sputtering and not developing.
september is stacking up to have been fairly inactive overall, in spite of the two large hurricanes that were active this month. granted it isn't over.. but if only two named storms end up having formed this month, it will have been the quietest september since 1996. usually though, slow here means active october.
HF 1301z22september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: marty, dead atlantic
      #13273 - Mon Sep 22 2003 09:03 AM

let me rephrase that: 1997. september 1997 featured only erika, it was about as dead as they come.
HF 1303z22september


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
1997 slow season
      #13274 - Mon Sep 22 2003 09:58 AM

Yeah... was slow but was a great summer online.. more posts on the old Hurricane History Board on AOL that summer than the most active years in history.

It was a breather... after 95/96 I suppose it was needed.

Read Bastardi.. suppose its very probable what he says re: next week being active in Atlantic/Carib.. hope he is right.

Where was Bastardi in 97, inquiring minds want to know

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 1997 slow season
      #13275 - Mon Sep 22 2003 10:07 AM

A question for those who pay more attention to history then I guess I do when it comes to Hurricane and climatology. It seems to me that after a large intense storm forms in the ATL, that a period of quiet follows where it relates to Tropical Storm formation. Was this true after Andrew? Hugo? Gilbert? I won't throw in Mitch because it was a late season storm anyway.

I agree with you Lois that there are features in both the ATL and GOM that have been persistent. A couple more days hanging there and you would think things would work to the surface with one of those features and I have been hearing that conditions are suppose to become more favorable for deveolpment by late this week to early next.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts!

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: 1997 slow season
      #13276 - Mon Sep 22 2003 11:08 AM

>>is about to hit Arizona we couldn't care less, as it formed in a different ocean.

Uhm. It DID form in a different ocean .

As to future threats, here are a few JB notes from today:

>>So the call here is more west a track than TPC through the Southwest and up into Nevada by Friday morning. Whether we get the rare event of a tropical storm into the desert of Arizona is still tough to call, but this has a shot at coming right up the Gulf of California and over water.

>>Tropics: The Gulf is where the unsettled weather will be over the next 10-15 days. The idea is the last high has the best chance to spawn a storm behind it as the trof lifts out, the flow flattens and pulls northward after the 1st, and a piece of the trof splits off. Perpetual low pressure will remain over the southern and central Gulf over the next 10 days, so it has to be watched. The development of the Atlantic ridge farther east over the central Atlantic will increase easterlies into the deep Tropics, which is the kiss of death for tropical cyclones in the early part of the year, but not now. Why? Because of pressure changes in the means over South America. The point is that the Atlantic is quiet now, but it may not be next weekend at this time (make that Atlantic or Caribbean.)

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4375
Loc: Orlando, FL
More Photos
      #13277 - Mon Sep 22 2003 02:22 PM





More Isabel Photos


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: More Photos
      #13278 - Mon Sep 22 2003 05:26 PM

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 26.7N 58.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 23.09.2003 26.7N 58.0W WEAK

00UTC 24.09.2003 27.5N 57.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.09.2003 27.8N 56.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.09.2003 28.0N 56.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 25.09.2003 28.1N 55.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.09.2003 28.1N 55.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.09.2003 28.9N 55.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.09.2003 29.7N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.09.2003 31.2N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 28.09.2003 32.0N 55.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.09.2003 32.7N 55.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

Got to get going now.. later!


--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
experimental forcast
      #13280 - Mon Sep 22 2003 05:45 PM

The upper level winds dont look to favorable there, but its as active as anwhere else in the basin right now

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: experimental forcast
      #13281 - Mon Sep 22 2003 06:55 PM

Aren't the Tropics amazing? We go from not a sniff of development to a possible TS (provided by experimental models I understand) within 24 hours.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: experimental forcast
      #13282 - Mon Sep 22 2003 08:37 PM

Still a lot of shear over that area, if it does develop it'll be a fish. Still waiting to see what happens in the GOM, some of our local mets down here are saying a surface low may develop and track ene over FL.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: More Photos
      #13283 - Mon Sep 22 2003 09:37 PM

love the photo of the ship Mike...thanks, beautiful

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)
      #13285 - Mon Sep 22 2003 10:22 PM

Your answer is in the Hurricane History forum. Tropical cyclones in the desert southwest are uncommon but they do occur. Two inches of rain in southern Arizona is like ten inches of rain in Florida. The dry arroyos fill up rapidly and flash flooding occurs. Arizona has had a couple of hurricanes (would you believe it - so has New Mexico).
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)
      #13286 - Tue Sep 23 2003 09:37 AM

There was a Steve out there years back who used to track hurricanes on the old Hurricane History board, cant remember his name but bet he would love it. Not sure the moisture will make it up there but its interesting that both storms went so far inland.

Wondering what comes next out there..neutral or El Nino?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Kimster
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)
      #13287 - Tue Sep 23 2003 09:54 AM

What Hurricanes Mike? I looked and could not find any evidence of any strikes on Arizona. Would be interesting reading.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)
      #13288 - Tue Sep 23 2003 12:49 PM

Arizona Tropical Storm Impacts - article:

http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/articles/tropical_Aug2002.pdf

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)
      #13289 - Tue Sep 23 2003 01:49 PM

Tropical Storms Affecting Arizona:
August, 1906 ... A tropical cyclone tracked north/northwestward across the Gulf of California into the southwestern states generating rainfall of up to five inches in the deserts and southern mountains of southern California on the 18th and 19th.
September, 1939... The remnants of a hurricane tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona generating rainfall of up to seven inches in the southern mountains and southern and eastern deserts of Southern California on the 4th through 7th with the heaviest rain on the 5th and 6th.
September, 1939…The remnants of a second tropical cyclone tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into southwest Arizona.
July, 1954... A northward moving hurricane made landfall in central Baja California with the remnants moving into Arizona.
October, 1972... Hurricane Joanne recurved making landfall in northern Baja California and maintaining tropical storm strength into Arizona.
September, 1976... North/northwestward moving Hurricane Kathleen made landfall in northern Baja California with the remnants moving into southern California. Hurricane Kathleen brought to the Southwest the highest sustained winds ever associated with an Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 57 mph at Yuma on the 10th.
October, 1977... Hurricane Heather recurved with the remnants tracking across northern Baja California into Arizona.
September, 1982… Remnants of Hurricane Norman tracked northeastward across northern Baja California into Arizona with scattered rainfall amounts up to one inch in the southern mountains and deserts of southern California on the 17th and 18th.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 4 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 65446

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center