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TD 18 is next up to bat as Peter and Rose just are not making the big leagues this season. Odette may take another swing at it soon, however
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Nicholas) , Major: 24 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1078 (Michael) Major: 1078 (Michael)
22.1N 67.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nnw at 5 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
25.2N 41.6W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Moving:
Nw at 10 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
10.5N 36.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
W at 15 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
It Must Be September
      #13247 - Sat Sep 20 2003 11:35 PM

At least a couple of active areas to remind us that the season is far from over. In the western Gulf of Mexico a strong area of upper divergence has sparked a large area of convection. Although the area is now in a diurnal decline, it has persisted for a couple of days and it has acquired some cyclonic curvature. The area is currently (21/03Z) focused at 22N 95.5W and has a general motion to the east northeast at 15 knots. The models keep trying to do something with this area and move it along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days.

A strong wave near 19.5N 53W has been moving to the west northwest at 15 knots and continues to support heavy convection. It is also in a downward diurnal cycle at the moment and has the potential for slow development over the next couple of days.

A third wave in the far eastern Atlantic is rather weak and only has limited thunderstorm activity associated with it. It faces an environment that will not promote much development for awhile.

The Atlantic ridge has been weakened and split by a large upper level low in the central north Atlantic. The western segment of the ridge has been displaced somewhat to the south. Northerly shear is in place between 85W and 70W while westerly shear exists between 70W and 60W along and south of 20N. Below 15N there is very little shear from 60W to the African coast.

The basin may currently be inactive in terms of named storms but I don't see that condition lasting for too much longer.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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lorio
Registered User


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
Loc: Putnam Co. FL
Re: It Must Be September
      #13248 - Sun Sep 21 2003 09:18 AM

TPC's Tropical Discussion indicates a very large anti-cyclone over GOM and surrounding areas. The sat images appears to show cyclonic circulation at low levels. Is there something really developing, and if so would it not be massive?
I'd love to hear from someone with expertise.


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: It Must Be September
      #13249 - Sun Sep 21 2003 09:40 AM

Expertise, I have little.... but the pressures are still on the high side and rising, a little wind but it is the tail end of a front. Got to get organized yet

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: It Must Be September
      #13250 - Sun Sep 21 2003 10:36 AM

Looks like the models are taking a little tour around the gulf now. Guess we get to pick and choose where we want a low to form. Lot's of disorganized weather in the GOM but nothing a sure thing. Watch mode again I guess. Hopefully the URL worked this time, if not I will keep trying... click here

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: It Must Be September
      #13251 - Sun Sep 21 2003 11:12 AM

You got it

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: It Must Be September
      #13252 - Sun Sep 21 2003 11:56 AM



--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
September Remember
      #13253 - Sun Sep 21 2003 01:18 PM

Never forget to remember ..

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
gulf bouy observations
      #13254 - Sun Sep 21 2003 02:55 PM

The highest wind gust I found was around 30 mph, and the lowest current pressure around 29.85 It doesnt look like anything is happening quickly


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Gulf stuff
      #13255 - Sun Sep 21 2003 05:34 PM

Pressures seem to be falling, but the lowest I've found is around 1009. Highest sustained wind around 32. Still pretty disorganized

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: It Must Be September
      #13256 - Sun Sep 21 2003 06:24 PM

I'm putting together a special section on Isabel, and am looking for any photos or digital video clips you may have. I've got my own photos I took, but a larger story will be made from it.

email me at mike@flhurricane.com with the photos, stories, or anything of that nature.

I still am without power so It'll be a while. Thanks all.


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: That GOM disturbed weather
      #13257 - Sun Sep 21 2003 06:40 PM

Looks really wild. I have rarely seen a formation like that. I guess the wind blowing it around makes it look sort of like Halloweenish.
The pressures that were referred to in the earlier posts, was that in reference to the GOM or to Isabel remnants or the storm out around P.R.?

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Pressures and wind
      #13258 - Sun Sep 21 2003 07:00 PM

They were for the gulf

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
clouds in the gulf
      #13259 - Sun Sep 21 2003 08:05 PM

look like a curtain of "nasty"

cant say anything looks too favorable...suppose give it a few days to make proper transition from effects on air flow from Isabel

noticed in the past sometimes is like it all has to settle back down a bit out there after a big Cane

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: clouds in the gulf
      #13260 - Sun Sep 21 2003 08:20 PM

Agree with your thoughts there Bobbi, after a Cat2,3,4,and 5 has terrorized the Atlantic, I would say that the basin could use a little chill time to get itself back together again! She was for sure a wicked woman!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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AlexK
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
new tropical wave
      #13261 - Sun Sep 21 2003 09:59 PM

It looks like the first decent wave since TD14 is coming off Africa tonight

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
gonna look Alex but
      #13262 - Sun Sep 21 2003 10:28 PM

you better not be teasing us here or I'll be very upset...imagine is the same nice looking wave that was over Africa the other day

... looking...hope its there

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
the Wave is there...
      #13263 - Sun Sep 21 2003 10:56 PM

but where is its center..seems to have two centers of deep reds...one high, and one low

which is it?

looks nice tho
thanks

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: the Wave is there...
      #13264 - Sun Sep 21 2003 11:04 PM

The next two weeks will be a perfect time for the tropics to take a rest. My Cruise to the Bahamas is just a week away and I'd like to be able to go

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: the Wave is there...
      #13266 - Sun Sep 21 2003 11:37 PM

Hey all, have a family member fallen ill so we have to get on the road north. Since I have to leave the GOM will probably bust wide open! Anyway keep it covered and I will check in when we return.

Coop

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Hurricane Marty (in the Pacific)
      #13267 - Mon Sep 22 2003 02:53 AM

Anyone notice Arizona is about to get hit with Hurricane Marty? Looks like it should still have some decent winds when it comes up from Mexico. I'm assuming Arizona isn't use to getting that amount of water. It's very strange how if a tropical depression is about to hit Honduras we're all interested in it...but when a decent hurricane is about to hit Arizona we couldn't care less, as it formed in a different ocean

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