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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Zeta) , Major: 337 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1024 (Michael) Major: 1024 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropical Depression 15 Forms South of Bermuda
      #13337 - Thu Sep 25 2003 11:27 AM

Tropcial Depression 15 has formed south of Bermuda, it could be considered subtropical as well. Its forecast to move northward and eventually make landfall in Canada.

More to come later.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


- [jc]


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LoisCane
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had the look ...thats for sure
      #13338 - Thu Sep 25 2003 11:56 AM

First visibles of the day came up and there were those long spidery bands and it was twisting.

Canada, huh?

Think its only time til we have a second system out there.

--------------------
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LI Phil
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Re: had the look ...thats for sure
      #13339 - Thu Sep 25 2003 12:44 PM

Agreed Lois. I think we'll have the potential long tracker from the CV, and possibly something in the GOM in the next couple of days. As HF noted on the last board, the GOM needs to be watched carefully as anything that develops could affect landmasses quickly.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Beach
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Re: Tropical Depression 15 Forms South of Bermuda
      #13340 - Thu Sep 25 2003 01:26 PM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

It looks like to me that the system is curving, more to the NW, than the NE.
Thoughts?


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LI Phil
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Re: Tropical Depression 15 Forms South of Bermuda
      #13341 - Thu Sep 25 2003 01:32 PM

I thought so too earlier...even better image with the IR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html

--------------------
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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Depression 15 Forms South of Bermuda
      #13342 - Thu Sep 25 2003 02:08 PM

TD15 should make it up to TS status within the next 24 hours but shouldnt be more then that and will merge with a frontal trough over the weekend and become subtropical-extratropical down the road. Current status has this tropical but with midlevel nontropical charactoristics.
Wave over the central Atlantic could become a TD over the next day or 2. This system if any will move NW then N and be no threat to the islands.
Canadian model was the 1st to pick up on a system in the NW carribean 2 days back. Generally the Candian model overdoes nonexisting systems into 1. Most models though do pick up on something though forming there but slowly. Overall pattern shows more energy coming into the NW carribean from the east and south. I expect a circulation to form in concenses with the ETA on saturday evening or night. A slow n motion will happen. Too far out to give exact and timely turns but eventually whatever is there by weds a movement NE across florida due to #2 through will bring whatever weather with the system NE. scottsvb


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Next TD?
      #13343 - Thu Sep 25 2003 02:29 PM

From the NHC/TPC afternoon discussion:

STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E ATLC ALONG 36W S OF 18N MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE/LOW HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE AND
IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST ABOUT 15 MPH.


--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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LI Phil
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Re: Tropical Depression 15 Forms South of Bermuda
      #13344 - Thu Sep 25 2003 02:48 PM

If you are to believe the SHIPS model forecast, we already have Juan (TD15). 48 hours out, he is forecast to be near hurricane strength. I think the 5:00 update will give us TS Juan.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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SunNFun
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Central Eastern Gulf Of Mexico
      #13345 - Thu Sep 25 2003 03:21 PM

Just a note to all.. very tropical weather on the beach here today.. at 3:00 pm we are seeing high convection which is early for us but mostly forming 5 miles inland because of the seabreeze. The gulls are acting funny though as they have started migrating early today on bird island which is a sure sign of some rough weather to come..

everyone feel the little blob in the Gulf is just a rain maker that is heading directly for Tampa? I am starting to even see some twist to the mass on the northern side but maybe it is nothing but cumulous clouds?


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Next TD?
      #13346 - Thu Sep 25 2003 03:39 PM

Nrlmry.navy.mil tropical cyclone site just upgraded 98L to 16L No Name., so I think we'll see an upgrade to TD status at 5p.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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garyb
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16 is Born
      #13347 - Thu Sep 25 2003 03:54 PM


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (AL162003) ON 20030925 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

030925 1800 030926 0600 030926 1800 030927 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.5N 37.7W 12.7N 40.1W 14.2N 42.0W 15.6N 43.4W

BAMM 11.5N 37.7W 12.5N 40.2W 13.9N 42.4W 15.0N 44.0W

A98E 11.5N 37.7W 11.7N 40.8W 12.1N 43.7W 12.8N 46.3W

LBAR 11.5N 37.7W 12.4N 40.6W 13.9N 43.3W 15.2N 45.8W

SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 58KTS

DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 49KTS 58KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

030927 1800 030928 1800 030929 1800 030930 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.0N 44.5W 19.7N 45.4W 22.0N 43.5W 21.3N 37.6W

BAMM 16.0N 45.4W 17.4N 47.6W 19.1N 50.2W 20.1N 51.8W

A98E 13.5N 48.5W 15.0N 52.4W 16.9N 55.9W 19.2N 58.4W

LBAR 16.4N 48.1W 19.0N 51.4W 22.4N 52.4W 24.4N 49.9W

SHIP 65KTS 73KTS 67KTS 58KTS

DSHP 65KTS 73KTS 67KTS 58KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 37.7W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 35.1W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 18KT

LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 31.5W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


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LI Phil
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Re: 16 is Born
      #13348 - Thu Sep 25 2003 04:59 PM

As of 5:00 we have Tropical Storm Juan and TD 16. Things are starting to pick up.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Tropics Guy
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Re:Juan & TD 16
      #13349 - Thu Sep 25 2003 05:11 PM

Juan may brush Bermuda then go northward to the Canadian Maritimes & TD16 looks like it'll be a fish spinner.

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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LI Phil
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Re:Juan & TD 16 (Kate)
      #13350 - Thu Sep 25 2003 05:28 PM

Hopefully soon-to-be Kate is a fish spinner. The early models take her to close to hurricane strength in 48 hrs., then leveling off. Most trend her north, away from the Leewards -- heading towards....yep...Bermuda. Those poor people don't need anymore anguish. They have already posted TS Warnings in Bermuda for a close brush with Juan; lets hope Kate makes the big turn. If anyone looks at the Weather Underground (or any other site) that lists the historical tracks of Sept. TDs within a couple hundred miles of TD 16, Florida has been hit TWICE directly (one was a CAT 2 and the other a CAT 3 near Jacksonville), and once brushed...so this will need to be watched until any northward turn begins. Hoping Kate just spins the fishes...

Historical tracks link:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200316_climo.html

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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HanKFranK
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Re:Juan & TD 16 (Kate)
      #13351 - Thu Sep 25 2003 05:46 PM

both deepening. think juan may reach hurricane strength tomorrow, come within 100-150 miles of bermuda. dependent on how it phases, could still have something to it when it hits the canadian maritimes late in the weekend or early next week. as for t.d. 16.. should be a t.s., but doesn't have a subtropical ridge to push it across.. it will most likely get strong enough so it gets turned up near 50w, then get sheared away to where it begins to meander.. very unlikely a storm forming that far east so late in the season will make it acorss.
modeling has all kinds of stuff developing elsewhere, so we may not be done. there are model runs bringing a system out of the gulf ahead of the next amplification, model runs developing a storm in the western caribbean, NOGAPS keeping disturbed weather east of the islands and suggesting another system trying a go near 55w next week, and that deep layer low in the subtropics between bermuda and the azores which will retrograde under the ridge (sometimes these things will develop). note that of the listed possibilities, the best is the western caribbean.. though the exact evolution of those types of systems tend to happen slowly and out of pace with whatever modeling suggests. scottsvb has as good an idea as anyone there.
once we have kate, we've made gray's september quota (at least on the total numbers).
isn't MJO amazing?
HF 2146z25september


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57497479
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Re:Juan & TD 16 (Kate)
      #13352 - Thu Sep 25 2003 08:05 PM

Also amazing how a few hours can make such a difference. Tropics have been busy today I see! Hopefully Juan will not have too much of an impact on Bermuda, and if kate goes fishing early enough then the islands will be spared again. The gulf sure is feeding a lot of moisture into central florida today. We had severe storms and some really wicked lightening . As far as the GOM is concerned think that it still has a few suprises left this season. Have to admit that I felt that the Gulf would be active this year but really think it will supersede even what I thought. Steve, I orginally thought that your numbers for the GOM was high but I think you have a good chance here of nailing it fairly close.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
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quiet here
      #13353 - Thu Sep 25 2003 08:43 PM

more going on in the tropics tho in miami...lots of rain

rain tropical rains, humid...very humid

watching and waiting

Tomorrow should be a little busier so I wanted to take the time to wish everyone round here a Happy Jewish New Year and think... will be a newly named storm as well.

Something about the tropics and the "high holidays" and can't think of too many when someone was not wondering somewhere about some possible depression.

Old timers down in Miami used to talk about the 26 Hurricane that took place on Yom Kippur.. which shifts around depending on the calendar but was peak of the season that year. Lunar calendar not solar.

So...here we are, at the very end of September... a few days left and we have an Atlantic System.. a CV wave that developed and everyone is watching to see if something in the Carib develops.

About par for the course as we go into October..wouldn't you say?

Love to hear some discussion on whether the mess in the Carib develops or just pumps heavy rain towards Florida.

Personally... I think IF something does develop at this rate it would come in further south than northern Florida. I know earlier models showed North and West Florida as possible targets but... seems to me... with the rain hanging over the southern half of the state...if it did develop...would have a chance of a more southern florida hit than the big bend area.

My thoughts...what are yours?

Bobbi

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re:Juan & TD 16 (Kate)
      #13354 - Thu Sep 25 2003 09:15 PM

Hey Bobbi, good possibility of that. The NWS Tampa/Ruskin mentioned that the we should start to dry out a little in my area as we approach the extended forcast period (Sun - Wed) Guess we will have to see how it pans out, but have a feeling that overall most of the state my be in for some wet weather as the remainder of the season plays out.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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LoisCane
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TD 16 (Kate)
      #13355 - Fri Sep 26 2003 06:34 AM

This is from Wxamerica, good guy... good writing, some thoughts...always give sources..either way looked at wv long time last night and dont think its a done deal with that beautiful TD going NW ... wouldn't count it out esp as situation with juan is evolving still...His FIRST scenario btw...was it going NW towards fishland but had this scenario too...

"Another possibility is a track beneath the 500MB weakness toward the Leeward Islands in about three or four days. This latter speculation may well carry with it threat of rapid intensification, as many of the numerical models suggest that a lateral heat ridge will form over the Sargasso Sea. That anticyclone, in turn, would position the depression over warmer waters and could even threaten the major islands within a week'

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: TD 16 (Kate)
      #13356 - Fri Sep 26 2003 06:43 AM

Well...... suppose that is another option, will think about that one. Can't just totally dismiss it for sure,as anything is possible. Catch ya later Bobbi,have a good one!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Cycloneye
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Re: TD 16 (Kate)
      #13357 - Fri Sep 26 2003 06:52 AM

Until a well defined center is found it is not good to say that TD#16/Kate will be a fish because if the center is further south of past estimates then it may slide by the shear and get more favorable conditions and get more close to the leewards so from here in the islands we are watching.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: TD 16 (Kate)
      #13358 - Fri Sep 26 2003 07:22 AM

Gotya Cyc, just wishing the best for the Islands. If I were in PR I would also be watching this one real close! At this point can't rule anything out. Have to consider all the what if's, why nots and maybe's.....

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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JustMe
Weather Guru


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Re: TD 16 (Kate)
      #13359 - Fri Sep 26 2003 07:59 AM

Wondering what TD16 has in mind ....

Could be another interesting time.

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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HanKFranK
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stuff
      #13360 - Fri Sep 26 2003 09:00 AM

i'll throw my hat in with the recurvature camp for t.d. 16. don't see it coming west. still slowly organizing, satelite signature doesn't suggest it being a tropical storm yet.. but expect it to be by later today.
juan.. ragged looking. doesn't look to be all subsidence.. it does have subtropical characteristics.. but they don't seem to be driving the train. think hurricane later today.. have to watch for baroclinic intensification that may counter the forecast shear as it moves north.
two other areas of note. western caribbean trending toward slow development.. no huge pressure falls, but visibles today will probably start showing some cyclonic turning in the windfield. dependent on the initial motion.. this may have time to organize in the caribbean, or move up fairly quickly as a weak system.. assuming it does organize.
the other area is over florida.. with the upper westerlies overhead it looks sort of frontal. amplification digging down should lift it up the east coast.. pumped ridging from juan should help hold whatever surface low it has in place. what this does varies by school of model.. some develop it almost baroclinically, some mostly ignore it. without a clear cut low the latter looks more likely at this point. time will tell.
HF 1300z26september


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stormchazer
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Re: stuff
      #13361 - Fri Sep 26 2003 09:18 AM

Recurvature is the safe call on TD 16. TWC did discuss the possibility that the LLC is further south and if so could cause it to move west under the weak ridge south of the oncoming front. This should shake out in next 24 hours. TD16 is going fishin if anyone wants my opinion, but who would.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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LI Phil
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Re: stuff
      #13362 - Fri Sep 26 2003 10:05 AM

I'm gonna go with Jara & HF on Kate (TD 16). She will become a hurricane (might even get named by 5:00 if not 11:00 am), only to spin the fishes. As for Juan, I'll bet on Hurricane status today...but barely...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
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updates
      #13363 - Fri Sep 26 2003 10:36 AM

from NRL postings, looks like TD 16 is still a t.d., though getting better organized... and that juan is nearing hurricane strength.
twd isnt out yet, but i'd bet they'll have interesting comments on both other potential systems. early visible shots have me thinking a low is developing off the north coast of honduras.. and the trough over florida has a pressure min. and a sharpening look off the east coast of the state. should either develop a closed low, we could have t.d. 17 on our hands as well as juan and future kate.
HF 1437z26september


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
HURRICANE JUAN
      #13364 - Fri Sep 26 2003 10:41 AM

Juan is now a Hurricane. Kate hasn't yet been named...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Tropics Guy
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Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: TD 16 & NW Carib
      #13365 - Fri Sep 26 2003 11:26 AM

Yep, TD 16 soon to be Kate is definetly headed for the fish, already close to 16 latitude and heading NW, will be a concern to ships only. Of more concern is the area in the NW Carib off of Honduras, looks like a LLC may be trying to form and looking at the steering winds it could be drawn NW then N. Fla. should keep a eye on this system., interesting times ahead?
TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


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Re: TD 16 & NW Carib
      #13366 - Fri Sep 26 2003 11:52 AM

FRom the 11am:

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND...IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SATURDAY.

Looks like the models were on to something. With favorable conditions in the West Carribean and little tropical activity to churn the warm waters (mid to high 80s). I wonder if this may develop quickly once and if a LLC develops.

This discussion also reaffirms that TD16 is swimming with the fish. Noticed NRL has TD16 listed as 16L.noname but no upgrade at 11am.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


Edited by stormchazer (Fri Sep 26 2003 11:55 AM)


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Tropics Guy
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Re: 90L Invest
      #13367 - Fri Sep 26 2003 02:07 PM

New 90L Invest for the NW Carib.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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garyb
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Test On 90L
      #13368 - Fri Sep 26 2003 02:10 PM

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....


National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR


TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902003) ON 20030926 1800 UTC


...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

030926 1800 030927 0600 030927 1800 030928 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.0N 84.2W 19.5N 85.2W 21.2N 85.8W 22.9N 85.7W

BAMM 18.0N 84.2W 19.3N 85.4W 20.7N 86.2W 21.9N 86.8W

A98E 18.0N 84.2W 19.1N 84.7W 20.3N 85.0W 21.5N 84.9W

LBAR 18.0N 84.2W 19.4N 84.5W 21.2N 84.8W 23.6N 84.7W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

030928 1800 030929 1800 030930 1800 031001 1800


LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 24.6N 84.8W 28.8N 78.3W 31.3N 67.1W 28.4N 63.2W

BAMM 22.7N 87.4W 24.1N 88.6W 25.3N 89.7W 25.7N 90.1W

A98E 22.3N 84.7W 23.3N 84.3W 23.8N 84.2W 24.0N 83.9W

LBAR 25.8N 83.6W 31.4N 76.7W 33.8N 67.9W 33.2N 62.7W

SHIP 47KTS 52KTS 42KTS 22KTS

DSHP 47KTS 52KTS 42KTS 22KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 84.2W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 83.7W DIRM12 = 335DEG SPDM12 = 8KT

LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 82.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: TD 16 & NW Carib
      #13369 - Fri Sep 26 2003 02:15 PM

well my 2nd miss of the season is Juan. I never expected him to become a hurricane and some data suggest he isnt but Ill go with the miss from the NHC. I didnt expect Juan to be more then 60mph and looking at sat data it only shows winds near that , but pressures are near 985mb supporting a 75-80mph hurricane. I expect weakning during the next couple days as he becomes slowly extratropical and moves to Nova scotia as previously forcasted. Everything else right on target, TD16 having some tuff times but should make it up to T.S. strength in next 24 hours or so, but will move in trackwith the avn model and be no threat to the carribean Islands.
Possible TD17 is on schedule for tomorrow and the NHC might dispatch a plane out to investiage the area. Canadian model totally backed off (as i thought) from the 989mb low. But not to say it might take off and be that eventually. Hard to pinpoint on this what it might do. Should miss the 1st trough and move slowly, but with turns N-W-NE in time crossing Fla with the timing of the 2nd trough. Too early to tell on strength or movement really. scottsvb


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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
Re: 90L
      #13370 - Fri Sep 26 2003 04:16 PM

Part of Florida Keys area discussion from this afternoon:

MEANWHILE...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS BY MONDAY.

TG

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
5:00
      #13372 - Fri Sep 26 2003 04:39 PM

Juan forecasted to strengthen slightly, looks like Halifax better start preparing....TD 16 still a TD, but forecast to become TS Kate by Saturday...she will spin fishes...Gulf needs to be watched closely...pressures falling.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: 5:00
      #13373 - Fri Sep 26 2003 04:47 PM

Looking at the loops, trailing and just southeast of TD16 there appears to be a twist of loose convection. I seem to recall some models developing a second Low after TD16.

The Carribean is started to show some signs of outflow though the convection may be waning a bit.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Looks Like a WET WEEKEND for Fla...
      #13374 - Fri Sep 26 2003 05:02 PM

This from Accuweather:

"A large area of disturbed weather remains in the western Caribbean Friday. Moisture has already been drawn up across Florida; yesterday, some reporting stations had over 2.00 inches of rain. Whether or not any kind of tropical low comes out of this remains to be seen, but it will be the source of wet weather for the southeastern United States, Florida in particular, over the next several days. There is also an area of low pressure forming east of Florida Friday afternoon that bears watching. Although it probably will not become a tropical cyclone, it should spread showers and thunderstorms over the Carolina coastline over the next 24 hours."

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Test On 90L
      #13375 - Fri Sep 26 2003 05:03 PM

Hey Coop, if your out there Cooper needs your in-put.....Can't hold the GOM off much longer. Things are starting to heat up around here don't ya know!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
west caribbean spin
      #13376 - Fri Sep 26 2003 06:07 PM

Latest IR and Vis GOES sat loop sure hints of a circulation center at ~18.0N and 83.9W in the western caribbean. Circulation appears to be in the mid levels and perhaps the surface as well... system is moving slowing off to the NW.... best guess would be 10 mph. With all the fronts expected during the next several days across the northern Gulf Coast, one would expect this system to be an impact to the central florida area.... at what intensity remains to be seen....

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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: west caribbean spin
      #13377 - Fri Sep 26 2003 08:16 PM

Hey Frank,the overall area in the W. Carib. has expanded but the deeper convection is decreasing, at least for now. Seems to be the norm with our systems this season at this time of the day. No doubt the spin is there and looks like a real possibility for development. Will be interested to see how it makes it thru the night and what it looks like on vis. tomorrow. Was hoping not to hear Central Florida but sure looks possible. Bobbi mentioned the possibility of S. Florida this morning, looks like they might get a piece of the pie here also. As far as intensity goes can only personally go on what I have seen from this area, those systems that head toward Florida Pen. usually have a somwhat lopsided appearance. Will be watching to see what this one looks like if it indeed does develop future.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: west caribbean spin
      #13378 - Fri Sep 26 2003 08:48 PM

I have noticed that if Central Florida is mentioned as a concern early on she is not usually on the destination. However, the few times Central Florida has been the on the intinerary, it has been a last minute surprise. For instance Erin, and the Storm in October 2001 that I can never remember the name of. She popped up on our door step over night and most everyone was surprised and by the Time she got to mouse land she was not very impressive but, there was a little wind and rain. We got the feel of what an impressive storm would be like....

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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