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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Northward Bound
      #13399 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:43 PM

jl,

It'll be there behind the front, but it's not going to impinge on 90L. Here's the shear map:

12Z AVN 48 Hour Shear Map

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Northward Bound
      #13400 - Sat Sep 27 2003 09:12 PM

Yeah Steve I know, I know! Can't see it either.... I agree that shear should not be a problem for this system as long as it stays on the South side. Agree with landfall south of my area, think I mentioned that in an earlier post today. Pressures are falling, just need some convection that wants to hang out for a while! Mary, best scenario here is.... go with no shear!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
Re: Northward Bound
      #13401 - Sat Sep 27 2003 09:18 PM

right..there will be plenty of shear in a few days as the trough digs but it isnt there now..mary saw others posting about shear and it sure isnt there now...the system will get sheared to death but not for a few days.

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Northward Bound
      #13402 - Sat Sep 27 2003 09:52 PM

I'm not sure on that. Models and WX-Storm updates do not depict the coming front digging into the mid-gulf or deep off the East Coast. Shear models depict moderate shear just off the LA-MS-AL coast. It could change of course, after all, it is the weather.

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Jara

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
systems go
      #13403 - Sun Sep 28 2003 12:16 AM

kate formed. how nice, it's probably been there a full day. should poke around the central atlantic for a few days if the models have a clue.. think they do. have to wonder what that deep layer low to the north is going to do to it.. probably get some kind of double entrainment as the cold upper low is decoupling from its lower level reflection and troughing out over time.
closer to home, juan is 24 hrs give or take from a nova scotia hit. NHC has kept saying GFDL is verifying well.. if that continues to hold true.. some of those runs have been keeping it at the same (cat2 or so) intensity at landfall, well defined over colder water due to some kind of barotropic effect. michael in 2000 did something like this.. might be quite a wallop for the canadian maritimes.
low off the east coast is under too much shear and should become frontally associated. still may act to draw juan over just a tad.. but just a tad. probably no threat for maine... and this low shouldn't do much else.
90L, the deal. convection trending back up at this hour.. not any kind of core.. but the turning is becoming apparent even on IR.. think we will finally get a system tomorrow. not a great deal of certainty.. these things sometimes develop when there isn't a lot going for them.. and other times linger for days in optimal conditions as broad, diffuse systems. no telling.
talk of an Opal.. been noticing globals taking it over to the BOC/yucatan.. as Opal did. that would be days in evolution. premature. simpler, easier outcome would probably be the storm sliding up ahead of the next trough middle of next week.. as whatever it is.. into florida.
bastardi is on that wave out near kate, as steve's excerpt alludes.. not looking that far down the road yet, but with the heads up i'll definitely be looking for it.
mjo, MJO, MJO. it does the trick.

HF 0417z28september

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 28 2003 07:38 AM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: systems go
      #13404 - Sun Sep 28 2003 01:37 AM

Couple things:

1) Sorry Toni. It was Mary K who mentioned the shear, but it's always nice to talk to you anyway .

2) HF - I see the NW Caribbean blob as a south FL threat. Opal 2003 (Larry or Mindy) would come via the southern Gulf and would likely be after the SOI induced flip back to negative takes hold early week after next (8-13 day timeframe).

3) A buddy of mine over on SR.com (a Halifax resident via Norway and member of the Canadian Navy) told me he'd send some updates to me tomorrow. He goes by "Blue" and I'll post whatever he sends in.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 28 2003 07:55 AM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: systems go
      #13405 - Sun Sep 28 2003 02:36 AM

This is one of those file away and store its, but check out the water temperature profile (Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies) just off the Canadian maritimes:

SSTA's

I'm not saying this argues for tropical energy to necessarily be heading that way, but doesn't it seem to make sense that the current most intense storm on the map is heading that way?

Sometimes things just work out like that. Nowhere in the entire basin is anything else close to +5 or +6.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: systems go
      #13406 - Sun Sep 28 2003 07:13 AM

Hey guys,
i'm back after a two week absence that saw Isabel slam into NC. Why do these things happen when i cant get to a PC??

Any way, looks like there are a few areas to watch at the moment. The first, and most significant is Juan, about 450 miles south of Halifax. A well developed and pretty tight little system, but packing 105 mph winds. Looks like the metro area of Halifax is set for a bit of a pounding later as this thing makes landfall as a (probable) minimal Hurricane. Could cause some minor damage due to the high winds and dangerous surf and surge conditions.

Kate is still going along quite nicely, but no threat to land. Latest visible imagery shows improving outflow to the north of the system, and although the official forecast does not show here making it to Hurricane intensity, i think she has a chance to do so today.

The third area of interest is the disturbance off the coast of Cozumel. This system is still being given a TNImber of 1.0/1.0 and i think it could be classified just before it moves onto the Yucatan Peninsula. Will probably have to wait til recon get out to it though, to see it classified.

Anyway, thats my thoughts


--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: systems go
      #13407 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:07 AM

Hey Rich, seems like it is either feast or famine as far as the tropics are concerned. Anyway 90L looks better this morning and hopefully the invest plane will not be cancelled for today. Convection is on the up swing for now, key is if it continues or not.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: systems go
      #13408 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:09 AM

Looks like I possibly made it just in time

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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: systems go
      #13409 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:29 AM

Hey there Buddy! Hope all went well for you and your family. The GOM can now be offically back in business Time to get Cooper up and running again!! 90L is looking better, looks like Florida is going to get some rain again.....

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: systems go
      #13410 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:42 AM

Noted that some of the globals now wanting to move 90L toward the Yucatan, certainly not something I saw coming the last few days. I'm'a have to research later.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: systems go
      #13411 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:55 AM

Yeah Steve, the NHC has mentioned that a few times now. I still think the end result will be south of me. Does anyone have a link to the buoys or reporting stations in the caribbean? Thought I had something but can't find it.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
ten a.m.
      #13412 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:15 AM

juan is accelerating north and looks slightly less organized. stage is set for it to come in between yarmouth and halifax later this evening, probably as a 70-75kt hurricane.
to the southwest of juan, ssd has a d-rating out on that system that tracked up from florida late last week. it's rated at ST1.5, meaning that if NHC tries to do anything with it, it'll be called subtropical. it's about to run out of support SSTs, they will be sub 25C very shortly.. but above sub 20C for at least another 24hrs. in a baroclinic environment.. as long as it doesn't merge with the advancing front it stands a chance at some kind of development. considering that most models are tracking its energy near cape cod and maine, NHC may choose to call it something. that's the weird system for the day.
kate is near hurricane strength. visibles this morning are showing an intermittent eyespot. non-intensifying depression they said, not 24hrs ago. this is the first time in recent memory i can think of that shear was under-forecast. power of MJO, baby.
90L.. the big ticket item? it may be moving onto the yucatan, and into the BOC slowly over the following days. right now it appears to be south of cozumel.. if i could place an estimated center.. not too far east of the chetumal area. models variously lose it and stall it over the BOC.. not seeing much in the way of those earlier solutions that took its energy up ahead of the current ampification and over south florida this week. whole different ballgame, so now we get to hear maybe a week of Opal-esque predicitons. hell, maybe it will stop over the yucatan for a couple of days. since convection is going totally berserk down there this morning, NHC shouldn't be cancelling any recon.. so we get the picture later i reckon.
in the bay of campeche right now is some convection.. with the advancing return N/NE flow behind it surely to advance and smear this feature out of the picture. if it somehow doesn't and it manages to persist, it would make for a very complex interaction with the developing system to the east.. but i doubt this will happen.
active basin.. possible gulf system next week. board has been quiet by post-isabel exhaustion and college football, no doubt.. but early october may be another period of fifteen pages of posts per article.
HF 1415z28september


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: ten a.m.
      #13413 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:17 AM

for the BOC.. advancing flow behind the front that should make a minor intrusion into the gulf (probably not knock the SSTs below threshhold from corpus to the panhandle or anything, though.. not that big.
HF 1418z28september


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: systems go
      #13414 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:30 AM

Yep, all is OK for now. Nice mid 40's at night but good to be home! Had to hear that "herkin" crap again! 90L... like Steve I have to do some homework... globals are slow and I think a server is down so hopefully more info later.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
major correction
      #13415 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:50 AM

let me fix something.. forecast highs along the gulf coast this week are mostly 75-80 from houston over to the big bend of florida.. with overnight lows generally 50-60. this means that the immediate coastal waters.. especially from say new orleans over to near tallahassee.. are going to cool off below support threshhold during the upcoming week. this is insurance for any possible gulf landfalls down the road.. almost guaranteed anything that comes will be past peak at landfall. no such guarantees from central LA back along the texas coast.. and from cedar key down peninsular florida.
on the upside, nice early fall weather along the gulf coast this week.. maybe summer will reassert itself later in the month.. but october will start out like a new season.
HF 1450z28september


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: major correction
      #13416 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:00 AM

Good point and oh yes... summer will return.. at least one more time. I think the front will take 90L in what ever form across central FL.. then who knows. Seems the FSU Super starts to see it off the east coast of FL.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: systems go
      #13417 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:05 AM

Good to hear that Coop, 40 degrees sounds good for a change. HF, read your post twice, sounds like good food for thought there, and a real possibility to consider. Just when you think that you have something figured out, you get a curve ball... anyway that is the world of the tropics if it wasn't that way,watching and tracking could get boring. When is recon scheduled to fly? Looks like some interesting times ahead, love it!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: major correction
      #13418 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:11 AM

That fall -like weather portends a tropical development. It is a signal that is as good as firing a blank pistol at a horse race.
However, we Floridians have to remember, that hurricanes do not come to Florida. Even Opal did not go to Florida, she was on her way to Alabama and just got a lay over in Pensacola. Hurricanes go to North Carolina, Canada, Nova Scotia and England for that matter. They go to Texas and Lousianna, sometimes they go to Mississippi, But anytime Florida is effected especially the Peninsula its a layover to one of the above mentioned.( Just some weak humor on this bright sunny morning. Disclaimer: Errors in forecast could be deadly)

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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