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June 1st is the official start of the Hurricane Season, but the NHC starts issuing outlooks today. Nothing in the Atlantic right now.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 201 (Zeta) , Major: 263 (Laura) Florida - Any: 950 (Michael) Major: 950 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Northward Bound
      #13379 - Fri Sep 26 2003 08:54 PM

Update - Saturday Evening

Hurricane Juan continues to look more impressive and I would think that the sustained winds are now approaching 80 knots. The 21Z advisory will probably nudge the forecast track a little to the west, which as Steve has noted, would create a significant problem for the city of Halifax, Nova Scotia. A strong storm surge up the Bay would create a serious flooding problem in that city tomorrow evening.

The westerly shear over TD 16 has relaxed a little and convection has built back over the center - which had been exposed earlier today. The 21Z NHC advisory will classify the system as Tropical Storm Kate with no significant changes in the forecast track - at least NHC was willing to make a quick adjustment to their intensity outlook for this system.

Invest 90L is still disorganized, but the pressure in the area has been falling at about one millibar every 6 hours. The tropical models have been very consistent in developing this tropical wave, with a slight westward adjustment on each run over the past 24 hours. If TD 17 develops near Cozumel, the folks in central and southern Florida need to really monitor what will likely become Tropical Storm Larry. Assuming development, it looks like landfall would be early Wednesday. If the Depression forms, I'll post more on this one in the Storm Forum.
ED

Original Post

Lots of areas of activity in the basin and its all heading north - or soon will be. Hurricane Juan is well east northeast of Bermuda and is heading north at 8-10 knots. Juan looks more tropical this evening than it has in the past couple of days. TD 15/Juan had a lot of subtropical characteristics when it started, but a separate and distinct core of convection has developed around the center this afternoon. Slight intensification in the next 18 hours as he heads north toward Nova Scotia with a gradual increase in forward speed.

TD 16 has been slow to evolve, but it is getting there and should become Tropical Storm Kate on Saturday. Movement is to the northwest, maybe even north northwest and a more northerly and eventually northeasterly trend is likely for this system.

Invest 90L in the Caribbean Sea with a mid-level circulation near 17.5N 83W at 27/00Z. Convection has been on the wane this evening, but the structure of the system has actually slowly improved. The mid-level center has been drifting to the north - perhaps just west of due north. If the system develops over the weekend (and it has a good chance - could be a future Larry), a slow curve NW-N-NE seems likely - possible problem for Florida, but it still has a long way to go in terms of development.

Weak non-tropical low off the Florida east coast could eventually do something, but the chances are rather low. GOM development seems less likely if the Caribbean system starts to get its act together. Lots of activity to watch and track this weekend.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 27 2003 04:46 PM)


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jlauderdal
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Larry Bud
      #13380 - Fri Sep 26 2003 09:08 PM

Convection was waning as should be expected with developing systems..we have seen it millions of times with W. Atl. systems. Convection coming and more importantly is the structure..outflow developing in all quads as almost nil shear on top...takes 24-36 for a cyclone to build oin top but i think this is a good bet..TD no later than 5 pm and probably sooner..NHC sounded very confident earlier with the old conditions are favorable. Recon is 90% bet for tomorrow as system is close in and not much time to to do their public service if they think it will develop and come to FL. Typical sheared state coming in from the W since it will be weak so no big problems for Florida.

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Tropics Guy
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Re: Larry Bud
      #13381 - Sat Sep 27 2003 12:31 AM

90L model runs take it over Central or S. Fla, interesting to see at what strength will it be at when it crosses the peninsula.
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html

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HanKFranK
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tropical depressions galore
      #13382 - Sat Sep 27 2003 02:21 AM

when the season is over, there is going to be a flurry of tropical depression tracks, from systems that never matured past this stage (or did and without direct observation conservative NHC play kept them as such). TD 16 is the next candidate for that distinction, as the NHC kept it a depression in spite of satelite classifications indicating a higher strength (convection removal makes the cloud pattern correlation iffy). still, we're currently at six as the number of depressions that have never made t.s. strength this season.. t.d. 16 could easily make it seven if it shears out.
so, anyway... juan on its merry way to the canadian maritimes.. joy.
90L in the western caribbean long forecast to begin organizing.. playing convective peek-a-boo. as good as it currently looks, expect it to be a classified system by sunday, and be up near south florida around tuesday. system east of florida is under a lot of shear and won't be of tropical origin if it tries anything.
so, thats the basin.
HF 0622z27september


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Domino
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Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13383 - Sat Sep 27 2003 02:55 AM

90L's circulation is evident on water vapor this evening. Just nothing in the way of convection so far... I am kinda crossing my fingers on this one as my Bahama cruise leaves on Monday. Could be a very interesting place to watch a storm from...

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57497479
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Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13384 - Sat Sep 27 2003 07:15 AM

Yeah Donino, been watching for any convective flair up again. Have to say that the area is starting to show more signs of life this morning. If it continues, I'm willing to bet that they will send the plane in today to check it out. Hope all goes well with your cruise, would be a bummer if they canceled.


Mary, in a response to your last post about systems comming our way, have to say that if it was earlier in the season and our area was the first on the models list I would not be too concerned either, usually first pick is in the clear, however as we get into September and into the rest of the season I become a little more concerned as the Florida Pen. suddenly becomes a favored target area. Look even now how everything is set up and the flow we have over our area. Looking back a few years you can see that we have seen our share of systems in September. The systems that we have had during this time has been kind to us, so no one can really say that they have experienced a cane from this area. Looking back we had Josephine in '96, Harvey in '99, he was headed straight for central Florida and on the 11th hour decided to take a dip to our south. There was Hurricane Gordon in 2000, but I think pinellas had very limited hurricane force winds when he came thru. I think that Gabrielle is the TS that you are thinking about in '01. So as you can see Sept. seems to have our name written on the calandar. 90L is looking a bit better will need to keep a close eye on this one, but have to say that I feel that it will come in south of central Florida, at this point it is really a too little early to say that, but I said it and we'll see.


Hey Justme good to see your post! I was wondering where you've been....


--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Sat Sep 27 2003 07:18 AM)


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stormchazer
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Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13385 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:01 AM

They were giving our little invest a T-Number at 2am hour:

27/0615 UTC 18.5N 84.3W T1.0/1.0 92

With that in mind, I can't see them not sending a recon especially with its close location to land. Thin convection but an obvious mid-level spin. A good recon might tell if that mid-level is nearing the surface. They will send it, unless it just disappears.

p.s. If they don't then please delete this message.

--------------------
Jara

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57497479
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Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13386 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:33 AM

SC, think your safe with the disappearance act! Didn't know that it had been given T's. Have you noticed that there is a lot of convection to the East of the system? I noticed last night that there was convection flairing around Jamaica and then this morning it is even further East to Haiti. Didn't mention it last night, but then it was brought up on another board this AM so I thought that it was worth pointing out. Could that eventually wrap into the system or is there something else goin on there? Hope the rain holds off for a while here, have outside plans for the day. Most likely will see rain toward the end of the day... Everybody have a good one!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Tropics Guy
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Re: tropical depressions galore
      #13387 - Sat Sep 27 2003 09:45 AM

Believe that convection around Haiti is a tropical wave that's flaring up. 90L's convection is much better than last night, though I still think it's got a way's to go before being classified as a TD, we'll see what recon finds out today.

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HanKFranK
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carib
      #13388 - Sat Sep 27 2003 11:25 AM

been watching that too, tropicsguy. yesterday it was south of p.r./d.r. with an evident turning in the low level wind field.. crowding will be taking place if it's trying the same route as 90L... situation in the western caribbean may become very complex in the next couple of days.
juan headed for a sunday night/monday morning crossing of nova scotia. should be on the wane as it crosses those sub 20C isotherms.. dependent on how fast it's moving and what happens ahead of the trough to the west. there is that one little disturbance east of georgia heading up off the east coast.. still some modeling wants to deepen it. if it does become a baroclinic hybrid system.. that would act to pull juan further west if anything.
t.d. 16.. another sad case. it was probably a tropical storm yesterday while the NHC was pointing to a confused cloud pattern (becoming sheared). it was probably a tropical storm last night when the d-ratings were higher (convective pattern was sheared but well developed). now it's got an exposed, convection-bursting center that is probably generating spot gale force winds.. but NHC is going to keep playing it as a depression. no strengthening forecast through 72hrs. assuming it can hang on that long, window may open up the road. globals are all over with what it does (nogaps has a westward moving hurricane next week, ukmet squashes it, GFS sort of between the two). point is, no kate. from this point its future is highly uncertain.. may be around next week, may shear out and be the seventh nonstrengthening depression of the season.
HF 1525z27september


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stormchazer
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Re: carib
      #13389 - Sat Sep 27 2003 12:57 PM

Despite 90L still warranting a T number, recon has been cancelled today. I guess I should delete my earlier post.

27/1145 UTC 18.7N 84.6W T1.0/1.0

--------------------
Jara

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Edited by stormchazer (Sat Sep 27 2003 12:58 PM)


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Steve
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Re: carib
      #13390 - Sat Sep 27 2003 03:22 PM

FWIW, NRL has "Kate" out there for their advisories. Anyways, here's JB's take from a Special Saturday column update and the Saturday column. The keys worth noting are the evolution of the wave/Caribbean low interaction and then down the road with the trof split, front and wave south of Kate/16. That's the shot at something really strong for the Gulf of Mexico which would have to be watched in Louisiana and especially Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. If we're loosely following some of analog 1995's season (Opal in particular), a southern Gulf Development would not be out of the question for the period 11-14 days out.
------------------enjoy------------------------------
SPECIAL EDITIONS OF THE LONG RANGER AND THE TROPICAL OUTLOOK SHOULD BE ON LINE AROUND 3 PM
SATURDAY MIDDAY: TPC SHIFTS WEST.

A very significant change has occurred in TPC's track, and I dont know by reading their discussion whether they understand the implications. The discussion makes no mention of the fact that the west shift has implications for a major canadian port, Halifax.

Now look, I dont expect them to do what I do when I come around to their ideas, which is say, well I am adjusting the track toward TPC as fabian and Isabel. Obviously input from the private sector is something they chose to ignore. However, I would think they would say that this increases the threat to this city, as the track is no longer east, but over or west of them, and is a shift quite a bit toward the idea we have been spouting on the site. Now whether it happens or not can still be argued, but what cant be argued is the new forecast is bringing a hurricane west of Halifax, as opposed to the earlier idea which had it going east, or left room to do it. The threat of a hurricane hit, with a storm surge into a bay shaped to funnel water is I guess now forecasted by them also.

Ciao for now. *****




Saturday: ZONES BELOW FRIDAY OVERVIEW.! COMMENTS: COLD SHOT AND PATTERN FLIP: I have no big changes here. This is one of the strongest, longest cold periods ever seen to end September. its one thing to have an in and out one day affair, quite the other to see a 5 day mean of 10 or greater below normal in lets say Chicago, which this may do. The good news is that the ideas of this trof pulling out and the westerlies coming back look good. This "trof" split means that the western ridge flattens and extends east through the lakes in the means ( creates higher than average mid level heights there) and we see the leaving behind of the southern piece of the trof in the means. I need to try to get clear here, because alot of you dont understand. What happens is this: Where the jet stream is most strongly buckled ( temps coldest aloft in a rough manner of speaking, we will see very strong warming aloft from Friday through next Monday, so the buckling completely pulls up and the flow goes zonal. To the south though, no such warming in the means takes place, and we are left with a trof, relative to the averages over the gulf. An old front is laying in there ( next weekend) and high pressure is to the north. The tropical wave near 10 and 35 is the one to watch on its way west, cause it should be in the area in about 10 days, so we are talking the southern gulf 7-10 days down the road as an area to watch.

However before that, we have the gathering and piling up area that we have been talking about trying to develop for this weekend since Tuesday, now over the western caribbean and here we go again, same kind of thing we saw with Bill and Claudette. Existing mid level disturbance is drifting slowly northwest, and the low level tropical wave is coming from the southeast. What should happen is competition today may disrupt the whole process and lead to a downtick but come later tomorrow or Monday, they should combine. With the big 200mb ridge right in there, this looks like a case for development.

I would like to point out, from earlier week posts and the videos, that whether this develops or not, so far it is going according to plan. The increase in convection started yesterday. The system should be over the northwest tip of Cuba later tomorrow. The crucial influx of low level energy is with the wave near 75. The westward shift with this is quicker than the westward shift with the pre-existing disturbance, so it closes the distance, competes, then combines.

The idea then is that it will head slowly northeast and use the alley in advance of the fronts coming out to head toward Florida. At the very least, the rainmaking potential from a front pressing down, and low pressure moving along the front should concern folks in the rainsoaked southern part of the sunshine state. At the worst, it develops and we have Tuesday into Wednesday trouble. I am concerned and I think the latter is a good possibility. However until the players get closer on the field, its tough to say. it does fit the pattern both long range idea on the seasons end game, and the current state of affairs. I may note that the one of the analog season with very similar water temperatures off the east coast, though not in the Pacific is 1999, the year of Irene in southeast florida, which evolved out of the Caribbean.

I have always been 1-2 degrees west of TPC on Juan and I still think this is going in at Halifax or west. The storm will have hurricane conditions at landfall on its eastern side, but once 100 miles to the west, rain is about the only thing that would be a problem. I dont think this will come all the way back to hit down east Maine, but its certainly not a 0% chance. The ridge is not angled though enough for a west of north movement past 42 north, so unless its over to 67 or 68 by then, I see no reason to change the idea. However like Georges in 1998 where a 80 mile error meant everything to New Orleans, though against a skill score was not a bad forecast, 80 miles here means a whole heck of alot to Halifax. Quite bluntly, my track would imply a hurricane hitting the city with a tidal surge, the TPC track is an escape to the east as they would have an offshore wind. The moral of the story for our Canadian friends is that I am more bullish on the city getting hit or being EAST of where the center crosses, exposing them to the full surge from the ocean and the uninhibited transfer of the strong winds down to the surface that occurs east of the center of these kind of storms.

16 is a goner, at least from the recurved point of view, but we knew that. We have to watch what is trying to come underneath though, not for quick development, but for what it could do, but over a week away.


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AlexK
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NRL info
      #13391 - Sat Sep 27 2003 03:48 PM

I noticed on the 90 invest, the NRL shows the "winds" up to 35 mph. It doesnt really look like its getting better organized

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: NRL info
      #13392 - Sat Sep 27 2003 03:58 PM

Here are some quality links for Hurricane Juan out of Environment Canada that you may or may not have bookmarked. This is most likely going to be a major storm for the Halifax metro. I watched JB's video and he put up a map of the area from one of the online map companies. He's particularly concerned about the funnel shaped bay and the chance of some major flooding. This storm really is winding up pretty nice if you ask me. The Labats, Mooseheads and Molsons are gonna be going down smooth up there tomorrow.

EC Hurricane Page

EC Sat Links

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Northward Bound
      #13393 - Sat Sep 27 2003 04:48 PM

Just a note to let you know that the Main News Article has been updated. Also, NASA MSFC is back on-line.
Cheers,
ED


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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: Northward Bound
      #13394 - Sat Sep 27 2003 07:06 PM

Thanks Ed for your up-date. Our W. caribbean disturbance looks like it is taking its sweet old time to develop (that is if it ever does) I wonder what the convection problem is? But with a continued pressure drop one would think that it is trying to get it's act together. Seems to me that we have had a lot of systems struggle with convection problems this season or am I wrong? Oh yeah, do you have a link to the buoys in that area?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
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Re: Northward Bound
      #13395 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:03 PM

I am reading on other sites right now that the disturbance in the Western Caribbean is going to run into a great deal of sheer if it decides to form into an entity bearing a name and will most likely not make it to more than rain for the Florida area. I am wondering if there are any further speculations on how that will change, if it will change and is it worth betting on time and place it will become an entity( TD, TS, Hur, tropical or substropical) and finally who will it impact. this could be a poll but I don't know how to set one up and I am not sure any one cares at this point on a Saturday night with football and many other things to do.

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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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stormchazer
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Re: Northward Bound
      #13396 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:15 PM

Looking at some of the shear models, I do not see serious shear, bar the far northwest GOM and some in the Strait of FL. Here is the link to the shear models.

shear models

I'm not paticularly good at reading these models so one of the more knowledgable folk could tell you more.

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Jara

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Steve
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Re: Northward Bound
      #13397 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:35 PM

Hey Toni,

Don't buy the hype. It's all laid out in Bastardi's column I quoted. It won't be until tomorrow that the battle between the MLC and entraining wave will be over to see what we will be dealing with. We likely won't see development until Monday sometime if ever. Gut call would be a minimum-medium grade tropical storm coming in somewhere south of Tampa Bay on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. In any event, another 2 to locally 6" of rain is possible in south Florida mid-week.

As for shear, the front is probably going to barrel into the mid-Gulf, so the shear will be over the northern half of the Gulf. The flow in front of the front would be SW meaning a NNE-ENE movement thereafter. However, the front & jet will be a good entrance region for the system and would provide a degree of ventilation if it gets going. I don't see any reason why it shouldn't given the pattern that spawned 4 other TD's+ this year.

Steve

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jlauderdal
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Re: Northward Bound
      #13398 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:36 PM

why does anyone think there is shear..its not there...incredible. NHC has been saying for 48 hours upper level winds are favorable..they wouldnt say that if there was shear in excess of 10..ok. Every TWO and discussion says winds are favorable...its not going to be a cat 3 but it isnt going to get shredded by shear for now.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Northward Bound
      #13399 - Sat Sep 27 2003 08:43 PM

jl,

It'll be there behind the front, but it's not going to impinge on 90L. Here's the shear map:

12Z AVN 48 Hour Shear Map

Steve

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57497479
Weather Master


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Re: Northward Bound
      #13400 - Sat Sep 27 2003 09:12 PM

Yeah Steve I know, I know! Can't see it either.... I agree that shear should not be a problem for this system as long as it stays on the South side. Agree with landfall south of my area, think I mentioned that in an earlier post today. Pressures are falling, just need some convection that wants to hang out for a while! Mary, best scenario here is.... go with no shear!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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jlauderdal
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Re: Northward Bound
      #13401 - Sat Sep 27 2003 09:18 PM

right..there will be plenty of shear in a few days as the trough digs but it isnt there now..mary saw others posting about shear and it sure isnt there now...the system will get sheared to death but not for a few days.

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stormchazer
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Re: Northward Bound
      #13402 - Sat Sep 27 2003 09:52 PM

I'm not sure on that. Models and WX-Storm updates do not depict the coming front digging into the mid-gulf or deep off the East Coast. Shear models depict moderate shear just off the LA-MS-AL coast. It could change of course, after all, it is the weather.

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Jara

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HanKFranK
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systems go
      #13403 - Sun Sep 28 2003 12:16 AM

kate formed. how nice, it's probably been there a full day. should poke around the central atlantic for a few days if the models have a clue.. think they do. have to wonder what that deep layer low to the north is going to do to it.. probably get some kind of double entrainment as the cold upper low is decoupling from its lower level reflection and troughing out over time.
closer to home, juan is 24 hrs give or take from a nova scotia hit. NHC has kept saying GFDL is verifying well.. if that continues to hold true.. some of those runs have been keeping it at the same (cat2 or so) intensity at landfall, well defined over colder water due to some kind of barotropic effect. michael in 2000 did something like this.. might be quite a wallop for the canadian maritimes.
low off the east coast is under too much shear and should become frontally associated. still may act to draw juan over just a tad.. but just a tad. probably no threat for maine... and this low shouldn't do much else.
90L, the deal. convection trending back up at this hour.. not any kind of core.. but the turning is becoming apparent even on IR.. think we will finally get a system tomorrow. not a great deal of certainty.. these things sometimes develop when there isn't a lot going for them.. and other times linger for days in optimal conditions as broad, diffuse systems. no telling.
talk of an Opal.. been noticing globals taking it over to the BOC/yucatan.. as Opal did. that would be days in evolution. premature. simpler, easier outcome would probably be the storm sliding up ahead of the next trough middle of next week.. as whatever it is.. into florida.
bastardi is on that wave out near kate, as steve's excerpt alludes.. not looking that far down the road yet, but with the heads up i'll definitely be looking for it.
mjo, MJO, MJO. it does the trick.

HF 0417z28september

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 28 2003 07:38 AM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: systems go
      #13404 - Sun Sep 28 2003 01:37 AM

Couple things:

1) Sorry Toni. It was Mary K who mentioned the shear, but it's always nice to talk to you anyway .

2) HF - I see the NW Caribbean blob as a south FL threat. Opal 2003 (Larry or Mindy) would come via the southern Gulf and would likely be after the SOI induced flip back to negative takes hold early week after next (8-13 day timeframe).

3) A buddy of mine over on SR.com (a Halifax resident via Norway and member of the Canadian Navy) told me he'd send some updates to me tomorrow. He goes by "Blue" and I'll post whatever he sends in.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 28 2003 07:55 AM)


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Steve
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Re: systems go
      #13405 - Sun Sep 28 2003 02:36 AM

This is one of those file away and store its, but check out the water temperature profile (Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies) just off the Canadian maritimes:

SSTA's

I'm not saying this argues for tropical energy to necessarily be heading that way, but doesn't it seem to make sense that the current most intense storm on the map is heading that way?

Sometimes things just work out like that. Nowhere in the entire basin is anything else close to +5 or +6.

Steve

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Rich B
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Re: systems go
      #13406 - Sun Sep 28 2003 07:13 AM

Hey guys,
i'm back after a two week absence that saw Isabel slam into NC. Why do these things happen when i cant get to a PC??

Any way, looks like there are a few areas to watch at the moment. The first, and most significant is Juan, about 450 miles south of Halifax. A well developed and pretty tight little system, but packing 105 mph winds. Looks like the metro area of Halifax is set for a bit of a pounding later as this thing makes landfall as a (probable) minimal Hurricane. Could cause some minor damage due to the high winds and dangerous surf and surge conditions.

Kate is still going along quite nicely, but no threat to land. Latest visible imagery shows improving outflow to the north of the system, and although the official forecast does not show here making it to Hurricane intensity, i think she has a chance to do so today.

The third area of interest is the disturbance off the coast of Cozumel. This system is still being given a TNImber of 1.0/1.0 and i think it could be classified just before it moves onto the Yucatan Peninsula. Will probably have to wait til recon get out to it though, to see it classified.

Anyway, thats my thoughts


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57497479
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Re: systems go
      #13407 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:07 AM

Hey Rich, seems like it is either feast or famine as far as the tropics are concerned. Anyway 90L looks better this morning and hopefully the invest plane will not be cancelled for today. Convection is on the up swing for now, key is if it continues or not.

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All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Storm Cooper
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Re: systems go
      #13408 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:09 AM

Looks like I possibly made it just in time

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57497479
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Re: systems go
      #13409 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:29 AM

Hey there Buddy! Hope all went well for you and your family. The GOM can now be offically back in business Time to get Cooper up and running again!! 90L is looking better, looks like Florida is going to get some rain again.....

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TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Steve
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Re: systems go
      #13410 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:42 AM

Noted that some of the globals now wanting to move 90L toward the Yucatan, certainly not something I saw coming the last few days. I'm'a have to research later.

Steve

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57497479
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Re: systems go
      #13411 - Sun Sep 28 2003 09:55 AM

Yeah Steve, the NHC has mentioned that a few times now. I still think the end result will be south of me. Does anyone have a link to the buoys or reporting stations in the caribbean? Thought I had something but can't find it.

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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HanKFranK
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ten a.m.
      #13412 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:15 AM

juan is accelerating north and looks slightly less organized. stage is set for it to come in between yarmouth and halifax later this evening, probably as a 70-75kt hurricane.
to the southwest of juan, ssd has a d-rating out on that system that tracked up from florida late last week. it's rated at ST1.5, meaning that if NHC tries to do anything with it, it'll be called subtropical. it's about to run out of support SSTs, they will be sub 25C very shortly.. but above sub 20C for at least another 24hrs. in a baroclinic environment.. as long as it doesn't merge with the advancing front it stands a chance at some kind of development. considering that most models are tracking its energy near cape cod and maine, NHC may choose to call it something. that's the weird system for the day.
kate is near hurricane strength. visibles this morning are showing an intermittent eyespot. non-intensifying depression they said, not 24hrs ago. this is the first time in recent memory i can think of that shear was under-forecast. power of MJO, baby.
90L.. the big ticket item? it may be moving onto the yucatan, and into the BOC slowly over the following days. right now it appears to be south of cozumel.. if i could place an estimated center.. not too far east of the chetumal area. models variously lose it and stall it over the BOC.. not seeing much in the way of those earlier solutions that took its energy up ahead of the current ampification and over south florida this week. whole different ballgame, so now we get to hear maybe a week of Opal-esque predicitons. hell, maybe it will stop over the yucatan for a couple of days. since convection is going totally berserk down there this morning, NHC shouldn't be cancelling any recon.. so we get the picture later i reckon.
in the bay of campeche right now is some convection.. with the advancing return N/NE flow behind it surely to advance and smear this feature out of the picture. if it somehow doesn't and it manages to persist, it would make for a very complex interaction with the developing system to the east.. but i doubt this will happen.
active basin.. possible gulf system next week. board has been quiet by post-isabel exhaustion and college football, no doubt.. but early october may be another period of fifteen pages of posts per article.
HF 1415z28september


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HanKFranK
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Re: ten a.m.
      #13413 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:17 AM

for the BOC.. advancing flow behind the front that should make a minor intrusion into the gulf (probably not knock the SSTs below threshhold from corpus to the panhandle or anything, though.. not that big.
HF 1418z28september


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Storm Cooper
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Re: systems go
      #13414 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:30 AM

Yep, all is OK for now. Nice mid 40's at night but good to be home! Had to hear that "herkin" crap again! 90L... like Steve I have to do some homework... globals are slow and I think a server is down so hopefully more info later.

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HanKFranK
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major correction
      #13415 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:50 AM

let me fix something.. forecast highs along the gulf coast this week are mostly 75-80 from houston over to the big bend of florida.. with overnight lows generally 50-60. this means that the immediate coastal waters.. especially from say new orleans over to near tallahassee.. are going to cool off below support threshhold during the upcoming week. this is insurance for any possible gulf landfalls down the road.. almost guaranteed anything that comes will be past peak at landfall. no such guarantees from central LA back along the texas coast.. and from cedar key down peninsular florida.
on the upside, nice early fall weather along the gulf coast this week.. maybe summer will reassert itself later in the month.. but october will start out like a new season.
HF 1450z28september


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Storm Cooper
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Re: major correction
      #13416 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:00 AM

Good point and oh yes... summer will return.. at least one more time. I think the front will take 90L in what ever form across central FL.. then who knows. Seems the FSU Super starts to see it off the east coast of FL.

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57497479
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Re: systems go
      #13417 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:05 AM

Good to hear that Coop, 40 degrees sounds good for a change. HF, read your post twice, sounds like good food for thought there, and a real possibility to consider. Just when you think that you have something figured out, you get a curve ball... anyway that is the world of the tropics if it wasn't that way,watching and tracking could get boring. When is recon scheduled to fly? Looks like some interesting times ahead, love it!!

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TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
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Re: major correction
      #13418 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:11 AM

That fall -like weather portends a tropical development. It is a signal that is as good as firing a blank pistol at a horse race.
However, we Floridians have to remember, that hurricanes do not come to Florida. Even Opal did not go to Florida, she was on her way to Alabama and just got a lay over in Pensacola. Hurricanes go to North Carolina, Canada, Nova Scotia and England for that matter. They go to Texas and Lousianna, sometimes they go to Mississippi, But anytime Florida is effected especially the Peninsula its a layover to one of the above mentioned.( Just some weak humor on this bright sunny morning. Disclaimer: Errors in forecast could be deadly)

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Storm Cooper
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Re: systems go
      #13419 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:24 AM

Guess what??? Flight cancelled

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Mary K.
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Re: systems go
      #13420 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:38 AM

I am not surprised in that anything they need to know at this point about the storm they can get from ground observations. It will probably have to get past Cuba or become a threat to Cuba before the aircraft are allowed in the area. Probably some kind of political boundary issues going on with this.

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57497479
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Re: systems go
      #13421 - Sun Sep 28 2003 12:07 PM

Geezie Pete!! If they keep this up, I'm goin to have to have a little talk with Castro.....

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TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

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AlexK
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90L
      #13422 - Sun Sep 28 2003 12:31 PM

It seems that the better 90L looks, the less organized the NHC says it is. I seriously doubt they cant fly a plane in because of national airspace regulations. I sure wish they would!

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jlauderdal
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Re: 90L
      #13423 - Sun Sep 28 2003 12:38 PM

who says they arent flying due to natioanl airspace regulations..the only place they cant fly is over cuban airspace but thats it. the reason they arent going is because there isnt a center..plain and simple.

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HanKFranK
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Re: 90L
      #13424 - Sun Sep 28 2003 01:39 PM

let me add a little uncertainty to your statement, jl. been checking the SFC obs in the yucatan, belize, cayman, eastern cuba... honduras. reporting calm winds in the eastern yucatan, gusty se winds near cozumel, weak westerly winds in belize and honduras. sure sounds like a broad circulation to me.. with convection going in the middle.
if anything gets in the way of 90L going, its going to be that the low starts trying to tighten over land. if you look at old tracks (opal and agnes for example), systems can/do maintain organization in this area if the conditions are right. no telling.
the ssd rating on '93' off the mid-atlantic coast earlier probably represents the peak of this system.. it's elongating some, and has all its convection on the NE side. there have been buoy reports suggesting pressure near 1004mb, winds as high as 25kt. reminiscent track and behavior to that low in mid-august 2000 that produced gale force winds, but the NHC never named... probably will be treated with similar disregard. with the proximity to juan and the advancing front, the squeeze is on... its just a hybrid low racing in behind juan. probably frontally associate up near the gulf of maine and amount to nothing more than another shot of rain in juan's wake.
kate.. should be interacting with that complex cutoff low to the north. one should entrain the other.. or something. it might be ambling back westward as ridging in the atlantic shifts to block its escape.. this time of year those central atlantic storms get whipped around on odd tracks that suggest great confusion. maybe kate will give us one of those... join the likes of ginny '63, inga '69, ginger '71, kyle '02.
or maybe it will shear out and get gobbled up by the low to the north.
HF 1740z28september


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Mary K.
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Re: 90L
      #13425 - Sun Sep 28 2003 01:45 PM

There may be no center of circulation and I will grant that up front, but how many records do we have since the 60's of our American Hurricane Hunters flying in to the area around western Cuba. My rememberance is that they always wait until the center gets in to Mexian airspace or into the edge of the Florida straits before investigation takes place. On the Guantanamo base side of Cuba we may be flying into that airspace for weather recon. We also may fly over Jamica but not to my remberance do we fly into Cuban airspace and acknowledge we did it.

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jlauderdal
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Re: 90L
      #13426 - Sun Sep 28 2003 02:07 PM

ok, LLC is a small possibility and i am not saying it will develop because it looks like a player to me but the airspace thing was out there as far as mars..i should have qualified it more. I certainly don't see anythin gettin North of about 27 based the winds so we will see..enjoy your dating and your football today.

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HanKFranK
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airspace
      #13427 - Sun Sep 28 2003 02:28 PM

mary, i believe that the international airspace convention is 12 miles off the coast of said country. it's a lot closer than you'd guess. remember that ep-3 recon plane that had a midair with a chinese fighter a couple years back? that was something like 25 miles off the chinese coast, if i recall. i've also heard stuff about cuba granting overflight for weather recon.. since they have vested interest in not dying by the thousands in hurricanes. castro may be a jackass dictator, but he isn't that clueless.
so, i'm pretty sure that a system centered 200-250 miles south of cuba isn't going to be an airspace problem.
anyhow, the NHC forecast graphics have a merge low in the southeast bay of campeche tomorrow.. makes me think it's going to be over land for a while.
kate looking good, by the way.
HF 1829z28september


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HanKFranK
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weather master?
      #13428 - Sun Sep 28 2003 02:33 PM

heh, weather master my @$$.
i was hanging out with a 20 y/o chick well on her way to a met. degree, who wants to chase tornadoes for a living, last night. cute as can be, too, surprised she isn't looking in to doing TV. plenty of real weather masters around this place.. i'll stick with amateur weather enthusiast for now.


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57497479
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Re: weather master?
      #13429 - Sun Sep 28 2003 06:58 PM

Well you are one whether you want to be or not, look at it this way it comes free with the site! Ok I need you guys to look at this loop and tell me what direction 90L is moving. Could be wrong or maybe its not a good loop to look at but NHC says W-NW. Having a hard time with that direction... click here

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Mary K.
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Re: Loops
      #13430 - Sun Sep 28 2003 07:14 PM

Toni,
I have been watching the loop which is 20 items long all day, will give address at the end. I can see over time where the convection has popped up and subsided several times but the area that "appears" to be a center if there were one, is drifting north-north west in my opinion. This only means that either it is pulling heat and moisture in from the Yucatan, or it is a circulation of the storm that is making that curving rotation and is an optical illusion. This loop I have looks very good and keeps it in perspective because you can see Juan and Kate too. It is a very very slow load if you only have dial up like me.
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html



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stormchazer
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Re: weather master?
      #13431 - Sun Sep 28 2003 07:23 PM

Looks North to me but, Its hard to discern where the center of whatever circulation is.

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Jara

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Mary K.
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Re: wrel BAMMD
      #13432 - Sun Sep 28 2003 07:37 PM

The Wrel page is showing a dominant model depicting 90L crossing Florida at approximately Apalachicola and heading to Charleston. See what I mean, storms DO NOT go to Florida, they just pass through on their way to other places.

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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: wrel BAMMD
      #13433 - Sun Sep 28 2003 07:47 PM

Don't know what NHC is talking about on there 5pm outlook about the Carribean disturbance. Moving wnw at 10 mph? Must of smoked a good one this afternoon because there is no wnw movement. Hard to say if it will become Larry. Takes time down there and things change in time. Guess just keep an eye on it....

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57497479
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Re: Loops
      #13434 - Sun Sep 28 2003 07:52 PM

Thanks Mary and SC, nice loop btw. Had that link at one time, but lost a lot of my favorites that I had bookmarked. Could just be an illusion with the blow off to the East, but it looks to me like it is going N. with a N-NE component. Would make it a lot easier if we had a center to track, maybe later tomorrow!

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TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Motion of 90L
      #13435 - Sun Sep 28 2003 07:56 PM

Actually, depending on when you looked at it, you all may be right. Earlier this afternoon, NASA close-up imagery showed a nicely defined mid to low level circulation moving to the north. Later, that motion became northwest for about an hour or so and for the past couple of hours the movement has been to the west northwest at 5 knots. At 21Z the center was at 19.7N 86.4W while at 23Z it was located at 19.8N 86.6W.

Steering currents are very weak in the area (and forecasted to remain that way) and there is a possibility that the small center is beginning a tight cyclonic loop just southeast of Cozumel - it will take a few more hours before we can tell, and we may have to wait until first visibles tomorrow morning to find out for sure.

Some weak banding was evident on the last-light visible images and a small area of convection was starting to fire up just to the east of the center. Pressure is down to 1005mb or about 4mb lower than yesterday evening.

System hasn't done much all weekend...but its still there and the pressure is lower. Models are all over the place with this one. At 120 hours there is a variance of 14 degrees of latitude and 42 degrees of longitude, i.e., future track if it develops is very uncertain.
Cheers,
ED


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Motion of 90L
      #13436 - Sun Sep 28 2003 08:06 PM

Thanks Ed ,well regardless of the motion of 90L, looks like the lower FL Keys about to be slammed by a band of heavy T-storms moving north from Cuba.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml

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57497479
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Re: Motion of 90L
      #13437 - Sun Sep 28 2003 08:15 PM

Thanks Ed for your thoughts and insight. Maybe the new convection to the East that you are refering to is what I am seeing that is throwing my direction off to the NE a tad.

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TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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AlexK
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90L, again
      #13438 - Sun Sep 28 2003 08:23 PM

I still have a hunch this thing is going to amount to something. The pressure in Cozumel is 29.70 inches\, or 1006 mb. I think once some convection fires over the center, it will get its act together

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Steve
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Re: 90L, again
      #13439 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:08 PM

From Saints (!) Report dat cam (if you're in buffalo):

Things are picking up. The wind is strengthening and it's raining pretty hard. Apparently the nasty part of the storm is about an hour away. As far as missing the game goes, losing power might be an attractive alternative to what I'm seeing so far!!!

Halifax Radar

Steve

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MF'n Super Bowl Champions

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 28 2003 10:46 PM)


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Storm Cooper
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Re: Motion of 90L
      #13440 - Sun Sep 28 2003 10:29 PM

Ed said it...all over the place! I can't find a good global to plot. I think Mary is speaking of LBAR that comes south of Aplach. Morning will bring more info. Who do you think has it made on this board? Hands down.... HankFrank! Enjoy my man...enjoy!

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Motion of 90L
      #13441 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:08 PM

Just a late update. At 0230Z the center of Invest 90L was at 19.8N 86.7W and, for the moment, the system is stationary with small areas of convection building toward the center.

Link for Halifax, Nova Scotia

Halifax International Airport

Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Sep 28 2003 11:19 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Re: Motion of 90L etc
      #13442 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:19 PM

i don't know what to make of it. looks like it's drifting north, for what it's worth. unless it runs much further north or sits still of the yucatan.. such a feature moving slowly over water under those atmospheric conditions should be a go.
of course, the bay of campeche has some interesting convection going as well. there ought to be a system out of this, but still far too diffuse to make any solid predictions.
juan landfalling near halifax, kate losing ground to shear. bastardi's culprit wave for the week following the upcoming one is low in latitude and looking nifty near 45w.
HF 0318z29september


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HanKFranK
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Re: Motion of 90L etc
      #13443 - Sun Sep 28 2003 11:19 PM

system out of this.. that is.. source region. has a lot going for it.

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LoisCane
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Re: Motion of 90L and Juan
      #13444 - Mon Sep 29 2003 12:01 AM

Thanks Ed

Just wanted to add that its really amazing how Juan retained the look of a tropical cyclone..a real hurricane for so long up north...at such a high lat.. rarely do you see a system look so tropical...so much a hurricane when at same lat as Long Island.

And.............as for the Carib...well has anyone waited so long for anything to happen or anything to appear?

Just wondering..Bobbi

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HanKFranK
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Re: Motion of 90L and Juan
      #13445 - Mon Sep 29 2003 01:32 AM

huh? juan's look isn't that rare at that latitude. sometimes they go by newfoundland still looking tropical. alberto about three years ago was a good example of that.. it still looked tropical at 50N.
90L seems to be drifting nnw.. or at least an mlc is. surface obs are hard to interpret, they suggest a low at any given time, but a very confused one. whatever is there seems to be near cozumel now. or something. movement is slow, very slow. just like the evolution.
HF 0532z29september


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Hurric
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Re: Motion of 90L etc
      #13446 - Mon Sep 29 2003 08:24 AM

90L still not wanting to do much. It seems to have drifted a bit north overnite and looks to have a weak center pretty much over cozumel. Pressure at 1006 there and winds ESE. Maybe the proximaty to land is slowing development.

A lot of rain coming up from the tropics into Florida and here on the Treasure Coast we have a flood watch.

The area in Bay of Campeche looks better this morning. I wonder if it is helping to keep 90L from spinning up.

Hurric


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rmbjoe1954
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Re: Motion of 90L etc
      #13447 - Mon Sep 29 2003 08:34 AM

There is no spin with 90L that I can observe; just a large blotch on the satellite image.

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Mary K.
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Re: Motion of 90L etc
      #13448 - Mon Sep 29 2003 08:47 AM

We are getting on of those slow drenching rains here in Central Florida that are reminiscent of those warm lows that hang around for days and days. There does not appear to be a speck of breeze with the rain here in the center of Florida Peninsula. HF thanks for the correction on the model. I tend to not do too well without my glasses on. Who ever heard of wearing glasses while you read???

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LoisCane
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Will something form?
      #13449 - Mon Sep 29 2003 09:43 AM

Not sure... I think so.

Think its more likely than not for something to form a closed center at some point down the road.

There seems to be an area hovering on the coast around Cozumel that continues to spin and blow up intense convection. Looks stronger on all loops now than it did the last few days.

The area is broad and I can't decide whether upper level winds are stopping it from congealing or if there are two areas within the broad area of low pressure that inhibit the other from exploding.

But, exploding it might do..down the line.

I'm not into the shear charts and SOI sio star war form of meterology that some of you more professional types are into.. more detailed oriented than me ... it all distracts me from my basic love of just watching the darn thing loop.

Enjoy reading your thoughts and will see what happens but right now going with climo and tenacity and synoptics and think its more than a 50/50 chance that something will form some sort of low. Note pressures in Cozumel are low though don't see any strong winds. Imagine a system like this could be very "Irene-like" in that flooding rains could be far east of the actual low pressure center that develops.

Par for the tropical course in the month of October and we are almost in October.

Bobbi

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Mary K.
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Re: Will something form?
      #13450 - Mon Sep 29 2003 10:04 AM

The weather and atmosphere here is getting darker and heavier at 10:00 Am EDT. I have a lot of critters here such as 4 cats, 2 squirrels, 4 birds, and two tanks of fish. All of them are in their something is gonna happen mode. I wish they could tell me what they think. But, weatherwise, It is spooky.

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HanKFranK
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Re: Will something form?
      #13451 - Mon Sep 29 2003 10:42 AM

hard to pick a center out from SFC obs other than to say the lowest reported pressure has been near cozumel.. but those obs are only updating intermittently. upper ridging has been suppressed to the north by some impressive shear over the gulf... SFC N/NE winds have dived down into the bay of campeche/central gulf in a frontal wake (with all the upper energy shifting east with the leading shortwave).
the low near cozumel is in a naturally comfy place.. or at least should be if neither the NE flow or tropical flow from the east infringe on its weak circulation. otherwise this bottleneck should act to tighten it.
the convective pattern is lopsided NE and bursting convection near the assumed center.. over land. over water it would be a shoe-in.. over land and nudging the periphery of the upper support its slightly questionable.. but there should still be a system forming down there, in spite of models failing to register much.
kate still moving NE, banding-type eyespot flashing as it did yesterday. really way the hell out in the middle of nowhere. juan gone, the subtropical low behind it gone, both to canada.
bay of campeche system looking less defined than yesterday afternoon.. probably nothing at the surface, just a mid level disturbance.
HF 1442z29september


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jlauderdal
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Reply TO HF
      #13452 - Mon Sep 29 2003 11:39 AM

I suggest we get the 20 year old met student to assist us in finding that LLC.Let her know its a little rainy today in sofla but I would be happy to study the maps with her.

jlauderdal


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Steve
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Re: Reply TO HF
      #13453 - Mon Sep 29 2003 12:14 PM

LOL jl (and hang onto that action HF).
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I watched JB's tropical update this morning and I'll give you what I got from the discussion. He sees a center somewhere between Cancun and Cozumel. He disagrees with almost all the models. UKMET/GFS rush it off into Mexico. The European moves it north to the UT coast. His problem wtih the European is that he believes the high over the western caribbean will pulse west then back east and there won't be a mechanism for 90L to keep moving west. He likes the idea of something in the south central Gulf vs. something near Mexico/Texas. They he offered divergent forecast problems and just said that this is a situation that the Gulf Coast should be on alert for. He hasn't come out and said "major hurricane threat" but you can see that he's leaning that way utilizing the assumption that it doesn't just head off into Mexico. He thinks it sits in the BOC/Southern Gulf for 4 or 5 days south of the NE flow and cranks. He drew a parallel to Opal but hasn't suggested this will be an Opal. Of note, his hurricane intensity/landfall forecast still needs a hit in the Al/MS and SFL zones to score a coup de'grace for him.
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My take now makes sense to me. Much of the energy will in fact be moving in on FL south of Tampa. It's just that the system as a whole will not be.
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For the SIO SOI Star Wars crew, the SOI remains negative for the 11th day. Flattening/zonal flow should follow the 15 day lag period begun 9/19/03. That means amplification should be more or less busted by Sunday or Monday with the set of tropical problems that goes along with it.

Steve

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HanKFranK
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Re: Reply TO HF
      #13454 - Mon Sep 29 2003 12:56 PM

heh... not my action man. don't believe in cutting in on anyone. do unto others as.. ya know. i'm not exactly hurting for options, as college campuses these days have that higher ratio of females. fine by me guys, go to tech school, leave me here in the castle anthrax.
think that whatever low pressure is near cozumel will probably jump the yucatan over into the lower BOC. just like the NHC official yesterday evening.. think it will refocus over there. just needs a big spot of convection to get it happening over that way. the upper high 'shelter' seems to be shifting over that way, and though there may be a max on the low near cancun, it's still a broad area of turning that can skip its focal point around as needed.
of course this is a very complex problem.. there are plenty of potential outcomes. one that needs not be forgotten is that it could never get organized.. but i don't think that will be the case this time around.
dang, better get to work.
HF 1656z29september


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HanKFranK
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Re: Reply TO HF
      #13455 - Mon Sep 29 2003 12:58 PM

ack. reread my post.. sounds like.. bueller, bueller. i need coffee, or just sleep at night.

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LI Phil
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Juan: Gone; Kate: Loopy; Hello Larry?
      #13462 - Mon Sep 29 2003 04:48 PM

Well, Juan is finally gone, having done some damage to Halifax; Kate is forecasted to begin a loop-de-loop and could be hanging around for some time; 90L will be investigated tomorrow...right now, two models are showing west coast strikes: LBAR just south of Panama City & BAMD between Sarasota & Tampa/St. Pete...will need to be watched.

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/90LTRP.html

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