ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I wonder if this site will have a bunch of activity on it starting tonight and through the weekend due to what may happen in the GOM next week?!?! Does anyone think that we could actually have something to watch or will this be just a bunch of hype? 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Shawn,
I dunno. I'm not much of a 'patern recognition' expert  . But the idea of a cold front sitting in the gulf for a day or two over very warm water could easily get something going. I didn't seen anything to be overly concerned in the models except in the European which puts a 1012 or lower low in the central gulf on Tuesday morning. Perhaps the 12Z runs (which should be run in the next few minutes) might offer more clues, but even the "Tropical Genesis Potential" site doesn't show anything at all.
I'm out of pocket on Mon. and Tuesday. I gotta do some recon around Southern LA, so hopefully nothing gets cooking until sometime Tuesday night so I can watch it.
What do you think?
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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A little comedy:
>>000
ABNT20 KNHC 010244
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2001
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE National Hurricane Center IS STILL ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES EAST OF
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF THE 2001 HURRICANE SEASON. THIS
PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...WILL RESUME ON JUNE 1 2002.
FORECASTER PASCH
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I'am not to concerned yet considering models are showing little in the way of development. I would rather wait and see what future model runs paint. But at least theres something to talk about.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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New EC shows low pressure (1000 mb) that moved due north from the Yucatan to the mouth of the Mississippi. Still is interesting if only because the EC shows it two runs in a row. It shows day 6 in the S. Central GOM and day 7 near New Orleans. Cheers!!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Thanks x and CHEERS!! to you as well. Unfortunately that's 6 DAYS instead of 6 HOURS. I don't know statistics for 6 days, but it's gotta be 700 miles if at all in 6 days.(?) But I'd love to see some early tropical action. Often in the transitional months of June and October, low pressure in the Gulf latitudes can be very slow moving even if not classified as tropical.
New Orleans and Jefferson Parish are pretty well prepared for a Cat-1, Cat-2 or fast moving Cat-3. But the one thing we can't handle is torrential rainfall often found in tropical storms and depressions (Frances (97 or 98) was the most recent flood event). If it deluges early, we get swamped.
I think the city's got the drainage pretty close to 1.5-2" in the first hour then almost an inch per hour thereafter (it used to be 1", .5"). Jefferson Parish (East Bank) has improved and is pretty close to New Orleans. As everyone knows, we're in a bowl that goes down to -5' sea level. So when the water starts filling up, you have to electronically pump it out. And if the Lake Pontchartrain is high at that particular time, the city becomes a giant wading pool.
My house is on the Metairie Ridge, so the property is about 3' above sea level. It is also raised about another 3.5', so I don't mind the streets flooding if I've got some cold beer to watch it.
2002 just might be the most interesting season in years. Talk to me Colleen
Peace,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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If the link works, here is the EC days 1-7
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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CaneMAn
Unregistered
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That area in the Gulf looks very suspicious this morning. Any thoughts this morning?
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Well the area off of the southern Texas Coast/Eastern Mexico looks really loaded with convection, but I don't see any real signs of a circulation yet. Atmosphere is quite moist, one ingredient needed to fire a TC up. The sheer values are what could stop this system from developing. Although I haven't looked at the sheer map yet this morning, I'll bet it's high. Persistence will also be needed (24-30 hours of sustained convection w/development of at least a mid-level circulation). I wonder if is even paying attention to this area?
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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The TCEP or one of those government acronyms mentioned it yesterday in a discussion/forecast. It's supposed to go out to Cuba in 48 hours or so. They said possible MCC. But I don't think this is the source for what the Euro is saying is going to hit me in 7 days. That's something coming out of the southern Gulf after the shear relaxes in 36-48 hours. It will be interesting to see if today's Euros are still locked onto the same thing.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Even though it's certainly possible soemthing could be triggered in the GOMEX in the next several days (not necessarily the system in it right now, either) but from another tail end of a front or a future area of disturbed weather in the western Carribbean. About what the Euro has progged over you in a whole week, well, don't count on it. That's like trying to forecast how many raindrops are going to fall out of a thunderstorm. It is becoming quite obvious, however, that the W. Carribbean/GOMEX will be early season "must watch" areas. 
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robertn
Unregistered
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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/deterministic/world/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!12!pop!od!oper!public_plots!latest!!step/
here is a more detailed look at thhat model run
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CocoaBeach Dave
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
It certainly looks like Florida will finally get some wet stuff.
Beautiful day here at the Beach, NO rain strong breeze out of the SW 
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I don't see anything out in the GOM that is even worth watching much less something that will develop.I think this could be the same as last year when the models were off on everything.All of the convection is gone and I don't see it coming back.Could there be something else that was suppose to cause a low to form out there?
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Joe
Storm Tracker
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Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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NWS Melbourne did mention in their discussion the possibility of a low pressure in western Caribbean. Although they say it would stay south as a building high pressure moves south. So don't think this will be a major problem.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Kevin,
That's pretty much what I said in my post. 6 or 7 days out is almost impossible to forecast.
Shawn,
Did you click that link to the or the more detailed link? If you watch it, none of the convection associated with the rain you got Thursday and what I got Friday is involved with the 'new system.' That stuff continues on toward Cuba and heads out to the ocean.
This one comes decidedly from far South as a response to the front over the warm gulf. If it ever develops, my money is on a hybrid type storm. I'm eager to see what tonight's European model has to say. If it shows the same thing again, things might get interesting for late week somewhere along the NC Gulf Coast. I'm pretty sure it was the that saw Allison and Barry and the early, unamed storm last year.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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The new runs are nothing like the old runs. There is now a low runing up the SE coast then heading out to sea. If anything, all that does it kick up some nice swells for the surfers on the East Coast of Florida. Enjoy.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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So the bottom line....NOTHING!! I hate it when you think there might be something and then there's nothing.Well, I guess we're not suppose to have anything anyway considering it's not even June 1 yet.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Anonymous. I'll leave you with this part of the Bastardi thread from today. It'll cheer you up a bit:
I am leaving on yesterdays discussion as the ideas outlined as to what questions will have to be answered about the possibility of tropical problems from the gulf are still be raised by the models and more importantly by the pattern we are in this morning. Again the MRF is later than the european, but it is of some interest that both go toward the idea outlined for possible early season mischief again this year, that was put forth before the modelling saw it. That does not mean it has to happen, it does mean in the general sense I may be on to something as where this pattern is going. This mornings MRF out at days 12-15 show the trof backing further and in the lakes and Ohio valley as the summer pattern slowly evolves. It is my contention at this time that is will pull back a bit further. than that for the core of the summer.
This means the spectre of drought from west and central Texas for the summer back into the southern and central Rockies, perhaps spreading into the northern plains. It also means that the southeast had better hope the next month is wet, and of course that would mean trying to get help out of the tropics, be it storm or return moisture, but that is talked about below.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Either this means we're in for a cool summer or if we don't get the rain we need early, something's going to supply it later.
Some food for thought.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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If the low was suppose to form off of the front that passed through here than I think that has gone by the boards.That front I think has already pretty much made it through the entire gulf;it doesn't look like it stalled like it was suppose to.I think that makes the models off already.
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