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TD12 barely sustaining but Invest 91L causing serious flooding already and likely to become a named storm this week in W Carib
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Ian) , Major: 8 (Ian) Florida - Any: 8 (Ian) Major: 8 (Ian)
18.6N 36.8W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1010mb
Wnw at 17 mph
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12.3N 71.9W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1004mb
W at 15 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 Storm Forum

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Area of Interest - Invest 91L - NE Caribbean
      #13682 - Thu Oct 09 2003 09:46 PM

Strong tropical wave with a developing mid-level circulation centered in the vicinity of 16.5N 65.5W at 10/00Z moving to the northwest at 10 knots. Conditions are favorable for slow development over the next two or three days and the system could reach Tropical Storm status by late Saturday. It is now the time in the season when I start to consider the global models more than the tropical models as the best guide for future movement of a tropical system. Shear should remain on the light side through Saturday.

It is also the time in the season when things which look promising today may evaporate by tomorrow, but this system has shown good persistence. I don't anticipate a U.S. landfall with this developing system, but with the global upper-air projections in mind, it may get somewhat closer than what some of the models are indicating. Right now it seems like a strong tropical storm is about all that you could reasonably expect out of this future system - assuming, of course, that it actually develops.

It is also worth noting that the central and eastern Atlantic from about 10N to 25N has actually become more favorable for system development that it had been during the past week. A fairly good wave in the far eastern Atlantic could become better organized over the holiday weekend. Rather uncommon for a system with Cape Verde origins this late in the season, but it has happened before - so we've got two areas to watch in the days ahead.

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