Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Very quiet now as shear and dry Saharan air cover much of the Atlantic
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 294 (Nicholas) , Major: 309 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1363 (Michael) Major: 1363 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Nicholas Revisited
      #13864 - Fri Oct 31 2003 08:18 PM

The stubborn swirl that just wouldn't go away! After taking a slow grand tour of a good portion of the mid Atlantic real estate over the past couple of weeks, the remnants of Nicholas are still hanging on - and perhaps heading toward south Florida. The remnant low is quite weak but it persists - other more significant swirls have withered quickly...but not Nicholas.

Models, both tropical and global, have been remarkably consistent over the past few days in maintaining this system and moving it southwestward in the short term and westward in the mid term toward Florida - anywhere from the mid peninsula south to the Straits. Over the past 24 hours the Nicholas low level swirl has been in a rather tight anticyclonic loop. The low seems to have completed the loop and is now moving slowly southwestward. Some of the models keep a slow movement for yet another 24 hours before moving it rapidly toward south Florida.

Upper-level southwesterly shear has kept the convection well removed to the northeast of the center. Building high pressure to the north of the low should relax the shear by Saturday evening. The system will be heading into warmer waters so the intensification factor cannot be ignored. SHIPS has varied between 45 and 55 knots for the past couple of days. If the convection does not build back into the core, the low will remain a hybrid system, but a hybrid subtropical storm is not out of the question. Even if it is not reclassified, the pressure gradient will continue gusty northeast to east winds over the Florida east coast late Sunday through Monday. Regarding reclassification, if it does regain Depression status, I think that the name will again be Nicholas, especially since NRL Monterey has it on their board again as Nicholas.

What a long and interesting season this has been - I think that everyone (myself included) was worn out a few weeks ago. But we've had some rest and now we've got something old to re-watch this weekend.
ED


NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13865 - Fri Oct 31 2003 08:48 PM

At a minimum, we have something to watch this weekend.......should be quite interesting........

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13866 - Sat Nov 01 2003 06:57 AM

The area doesn't look all that chipper this morning, but never the less there is a certain amount of excitement with this system as we wait to see how all the potientals pan out!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13867 - Sat Nov 01 2003 09:34 AM

The cloud cover seems though as if it is tring to wrap around this morning.The LLC still visible but a healthy spin.The overall movement looks to the W though with a slight jog N maybe hard to discern.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Nicholas Again?
      #13868 - Sat Nov 01 2003 06:27 PM

I was going to post this in the Storm Forum but decided that the Main Page would be a better place. Sometimes the tenacity of Cape Verde systems just amazes me. After looking rather poorly this morning, the remnant circulation of Nicholas is looking quite healthy this evening.

The circulation moved northward during the morning and has since taken a turn to the west this afternoon. Convection is rapidly refiring to the north of the center - and close to it - and a Tropical Depression seems likely in another 12 hours or less if the convection can hold. The southwesterly shear is rapidly on the decline, with less impact as the storm moves to the west. Estimated central pressure has dropped 3mb during the day and is now at 1005mb.

Movement should continue to the west or west southwest with a continual increase in forward speed. Of all of the models, the CMC seems to be doing rather well with this system. With consideration for todays northward jog, a forecast track over south Florida, rather than the Straits of Florida, seems likely. Landfall likely on Monday morning - perhaps as a strong Tropical Storm.

With a deepening storm and a high to the north, a healthy pressure gradient could give the Florida east coast strong winds from the landfall point northward to at least Daytona Beach. Rain squalls likely on Monday across the southern half of the peninsula with strong and gusty east to southeasterly winds.

The storm crosses the peninsula on Monday and heads for the Mississippi/Alabama coastal area on Wednesday. All of the above assumes continued development tonight and Sunday. The potential certainly exists for a highly uncommon Tropical Storm from the east in November. Another unusual chapter in a very unusual season.
Cheers,
ED


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Nicholas Again?
      #13869 - Sat Nov 01 2003 07:07 PM

Hey guys,
Ed, i agree with your thoughts on this one! Certainly has been persistent, and i think that is the key to its future. I reckon we will see this become either a Subtropical or Tropical Storm on Sunday, heading west-southwest. A brush with the Northern Bahamas seems on the cards, before landfall on Monday afternoon along the Florida east coast, probably as a 50 or 55 mph storm. It should stay intact as it crosses the peninsula to arrive over the Gulf of Mexico in the small hours of Tuesday morning, probably weakening to Depression or minimal Storm status by that time. Thereafter, i have no idea on where it will go!

This has indeed been the most odd season i can remember, and this cyclone is yet another example of that.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve H.
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: Nicholas Again?
      #13870 - Sat Nov 01 2003 08:00 PM

Seems to be moving west at the moment. Hey Ed do you think this circulation is taking on warm core characteristics. The thunderstorm buildup would make one believe so. Like you said, lets see if it continues. Trying to discern the location of the center. Looking at the Dvorak loop, seems the center is just south of the convection, but hard to tell. The southern extent seems completely void of convection, and probably has only scattered low clouds. This thing could come in near Stuart unless it veers quite strongly to the SW. Hard to tell if this convection is passing or catching fire. Seems like the spark is in the circulation center though, as you can see the rotation within the convection. May have to bring in loose items from outside tomorrow if this keeps up! Cheers!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
A storm for Florida?
      #13871 - Sat Nov 01 2003 08:11 PM

Where is everyone? Wake up people!!! We may have a storm bearing down on Florida in 24 hours. We have had a few squalls pass through this evening coming in off the Atlantic from the NE. Winds have peaked at 29 mph at my house.

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13872 - Sat Nov 01 2003 09:49 PM

Give it at least 48 hrs. We still have some action left....after this I will let it go until next season

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
We're watching
      #13873 - Sat Nov 01 2003 10:28 PM

I'm watching.... Actually watching some show called Devils Winds... lots of storm talk.

Love the weather, can't take it seriously in ways. Odd, I mean hard to beleive a named storm might be out there in 24 hours or a bit more and no one is really talking about it, except the rain and strong winds which everyone says is the pressure gradient, people were talking about the pressure gradient all day round here.

Reading all of you and enjoying your posts, thanks for keeping us informed.

I'm just watching this one... do we call this one Nicholas Sr. or Nicholas Jr.??

nice to see you all back richie, steve and ed

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13874 - Sat Nov 01 2003 11:09 PM

Hey Coop, what a difference a few hours make. Just got home so I have not looked at the sat loops, just read everyones post. Sounds like the tropics will treat us with a little action before it shuts down for a while. Let's see what it's got in store for us!! This season should go out with a bang, just doesn't seem right if it doesn't. Hey Bobbi, looks like you get some more rain again!!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SunNFun
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Redington Beach, FL
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13875 - Sat Nov 01 2003 11:33 PM

GFS loops suggest little more than a some rain and winds less than 25 knots for us on the west coast of FL.. looks like most models want to keep it south of the Tampa area.. I might be wrong but it looks like it will speed across into the warmer Gulf and head NW towards TX or LA..

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13876 - Sat Nov 01 2003 11:37 PM

It is hard to get very excited about that feature in the Atlantic. We had a storm come through Central Florida last week that had a few tornado warnings with it. It looked more threatening on Satellite than this one does at this time. Does any one here think that this feature( Ole Nick) will get more convection than it has now?

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13877 - Sun Nov 02 2003 12:31 AM

Hey SunNFun, agree that it should stay south of Tampa Bay area. And Mary had a taste of the storm that came thru last week, stayed mostly north of me though. Looked at the sat loops and the system does look better. Now will he/she become pure tropical comming across Florida or wait until it reaches the gulf? Still may not happen even then. What's ya guys think...!!

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13878 - Sun Nov 02 2003 02:34 AM

Give it up for a November storm whether it amounts to much or not. I'm hoping to see some effects up here, but I doubt they'd be much. I don't care though even if I only get some tropical clouds to look at, it's better than nothing. South Florida ought to get some decent downpours and breezes the next couple of days. After that, I'm not sure where it goes. I was thinking east from the Wed. models and JB which was SC LA. A couple of the globals have been moving toward my thinking. If for nothing else, we don't see storms out of the SE or ESE in November. Neitherdoes Mississippi or Alabama. But obviously, the further east you go, the better the odds a storm COULD be there.

The thing that threw me off a little was when the low pressure center hedged a little north of west earlier today. Had the south component kicked in earlier, it might have been a FL Straits storm. Now I'm not sure. And since I can't tell where it's going to hit Florida, I don't know where the 2nd landfall is going to be. But in the interest of fun, early call will be hitting between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami sometime tomorrow night or early Monday (appears the forward movment has picked up FWIW). After that, I'll go with a Plaquemines Parish, LA to Mobile County, AL landfall. Gut call would be a unnamed system (maybe a TD?/STD? ) in South FL with winds around 30-40 and perhaps a 45-50mph TS at northern Gulf landfall (and weakening) maybe Wed. morning.

One of many alternative scenarios would be for a very weak system moving fast E/W across the GOM and not becoming anything.

Should be a fun couple of days. If I see anything up here, you know I'll take some photos.

Oh yeah, GO SAINTS!

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13879 - Sun Nov 02 2003 06:51 AM

Well all the models seem to like the FL/GA line now.If this should be the case I would not expect a whole lot out of this then seeing that the water temps are marginal at best out there to sustain tropical development.Have to seee how the system behaves today looks to be moving W now.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 427
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13880 - Sun Nov 02 2003 06:55 AM

Well it seems Steve Lyons has called for remnants of Nick not to be reclassified after all. The burliest winds will affect from Fort Pierce/Port Saint Lucie area to Jacksonville.

Have a great Sunday!!

--------------------
________2022 Forecast: 20/10/5________

There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
SunNFun
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Redington Beach, FL
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13881 - Sun Nov 02 2003 07:31 AM

I personally don't see FL/GA line.. looks to me like S FL gets some 45 Kt winds and some squalls..

Interestingly, the second disturbance (is it a low?) at 23/75 seems to be wrapping back around the rear of 'ole Nick in classical cyclonic fashion.. any chance these two get together and moonlight up the Gulf?


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13882 - Sun Nov 02 2003 09:22 AM

Yeah Steve, hard to make a 2nd landfall prediction if your unsure of the 1st. Think anyone who is calling for a S. Central or South Florida crossing should be in the ballgame. In fact the energy may help to give us 6 on the board today... Looks like you or Coop could be seeing some rain from this. Sat loops just does not look that impressive to me, still has room for a lot of improvement. Running out of time to do much before it visits Florida, after it's in the GOM maybe a chance, but going across Florida may really do a # on it.


Hey SunNFun also noticed the area you pointed out this AM. Anyone have any comments on this area....?





Oh Yeah, WE'LL SEE....!!!





--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Sun Nov 02 2003 09:26 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13883 - Sun Nov 02 2003 09:30 AM

NRL....96L Invest???

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | >> (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 5 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 101127

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center