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Watching 94L off the Mid-Atlantic for possible subtropical or even tropical transition this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nicholas) , Major: 58 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1112 (Michael) Major: 1112 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13912 - Mon Nov 03 2003 10:47 AM

Very Dark here in Lakeland. Breeze but no sense of air circulation.very tropical in nature. Apparently some short showers as my cat came in with water drops lightly sprinkled on her back. The feeling is that things could burst loose any minute. The satellite picture is kind of awesome close up. IT looks like something is trying to wind up right off the west coast near Ft Myers etc. (not sure about my geography there) All I know for sure is that my birds and squirrels(Pets) are looking kind of thoughtful, taking this all in and wondering whether to bury the food or dig it up. (squirrels) I am getting a dissertation from my cockateil as to the nature of things. Followed by the traditional wolf whistle.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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SunNFun
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Redington Beach, FL
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13913 - Mon Nov 03 2003 10:49 AM

I must have woke up in the eye or something at 9:30 because at almost 11 am now, the winds have really picked up - steady 25 kts and gusts to 35.. also, I see a shift of clouds moving almost due W now instead of the WSW motion earlier..

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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Nicholas Revisited
      #13914 - Mon Nov 03 2003 11:55 AM

Brighter now than an hour ago.Still breezy. Nothing that a good old kite couldnt handle. Clouds appear to be moving from SE to Northwest.( I think) we sit kind of at an odd angle to the state and it is always messing up my sense of direction. JB got his Florida hit he was talking about. I also noticed that there is a cold front begining to loom on the Horizon I am wondering if this little fellow sits in the GOM will it be brought back to us better for having shlepped up some nice warm moist air in a very conducive environment?

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
recon
      #13915 - Mon Nov 03 2003 02:14 PM

Recon is in there now.

Pretty well-defined circulation on visible imagery, but not much convection near the center. As always, curious what the plane finds.

Didn't get much weather from this where I am, south of Miami. Some rain and breezy conditions starting around 6 or 7 last night (it was actually beautiful out) and a few minutes of distant thunder in the middle of the night, but that's it.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: recon
      #13916 - Mon Nov 03 2003 03:11 PM

I think (but am not sure) recon has left the system without producing a vortex data message. I don't think there was any west wind, and the only report of a south wind I saw was far south of the center. Maximum flight-level wind in the observations I saw (I only saw about 4 or 5) was 33 knots, from an altitude of about 340 meters at 25.8/83.7.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: recon
      #13917 - Mon Nov 03 2003 03:42 PM

I didn't see this before I posted the above:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 PM EST MON NOV 3 2003

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH NO
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS LIMITED. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
THIS SYSTEM...AS THERE IS STILL SOME POSSIBILITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS IN THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 118
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: recon
      #13918 - Mon Nov 03 2003 04:05 PM

From a weather service that advises a private company on the coast of Alabama.....................


Tropical Weather Update

Low Pressure Center 100 Miles West of Sarasota, FL



Issued: 1:30PM CST Monday, November 3, 2003

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of the low is near 27.2N/84.1W at 1PM CST. Movement is to the west to west-northwest at about 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds around the center have been measured at 30-35 mph.

Reports from the recon plane confirm what we already knew from satellite and ship observations - that there is a well-defined low-level circulation center in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. There are showers spiraling in toward the center of the low, but all heavy squalls are still located to the south of the low center. We're not sure whether the Hurricane Center will reclassify this low as a depression this afternoon or not. Reports from the recon plane would seem to support the reclassification of this low to a tropical depression in the next few hours, however.

But regardless of whether or not this low is classified as a depression, it will produce winds of 25-40 mph, rough seas, and occasional squalls offshore for the next 24 hours. Inland winds across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and Alabama will be about half of the offshore winds - on the order of 15-25 mph. Along the immediate Gulf coast, there could be some wind gusts of 40-50 mph in thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

The forecast track is fairly straightforward - west to west-northwest today then northward into the northern Gulf coast between southeast Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. Our calculations put the center of the low just east of the mouth of the Mississippi around 8am CST Tuesday. By noon tomorrow, the low center should be approaching the Mississippi coast. Once inland, it will weaken very quickly. Depending upon if any significant squalls develop near the center, inland rainfall amounts could be anywhere from less than an inch to 3-4 inches.



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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: recon
      #13919 - Mon Nov 03 2003 06:58 PM

Breck (on Fox 8) said basically that the upper level support (which is the low far to the south of the lower level circulation) has most of the energy due to some shear from the east across Florida. They put in a raindrop and questionmark for tomorrow's forecast. We're supposed to see some cloud shield and breezy conditions, but that's all. I'm still holding with a landfall between Plaq. Parish and Mobile County, but my 45-50 winds were way off. I'm not sure where the center crossed FL. I had it Miami to Ft.L I think, but the main energy was still with the ULC at that time.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
Hey Steve
      #13920 - Mon Nov 03 2003 07:52 PM

The center passed right over the West Palm Beach area. My final totals were 1.56"of rain, a 34 mph wind gust, and the lowest pressure of 29.74".

--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.

Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Hey Steve
      #13921 - Mon Nov 03 2003 09:52 PM

This little system is rockin to the W fast ,seems the center is better organized but still no convection to say of.Maybe this thing might follow the A98 model if I remember right and come back.Leaves more time for development maybe,if it should slow down some.

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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Improving satellite signature
      #13922 - Tue Nov 04 2003 09:33 AM

Hey guys,
just looking at the latest visible imagery from the Gulf and it seems that this little low may actually just do something! Thunderstorm activity has increased near the centre, especially in the southern semicircle, and is continuing to slowly increase too. Might be interesting when Recon gets out there this afternoon to see if anything has formed! Looks like it on satellite though.

Regards,


--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Improving satellite signature
      #13923 - Tue Nov 04 2003 09:58 AM

I'm thinking the same thing Rich.In the last couple of frames though the convection has changed some not a ball anymore.It might be a decent little wind storm for tonight .Seems the forward progress has slowed down some.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Improving satellite signature
      #13924 - Tue Nov 04 2003 10:26 AM

Latest Quickscat pass

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Improving satellite signature
      #13925 - Tue Nov 04 2003 10:29 AM

Actually, the 1512 UTC quickscat showed a lot more uncontaminated (i.e., not black barbs) 20+ knot west winds south of the center.

Looks like winds have tightened up near the center, there's likely a west wind, and obviously there is more convection closer to the center. TD is still a possibility.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Improving satellite signature
      #13926 - Tue Nov 04 2003 10:45 AM

Nothing happening here today. It's cloudy, but no showers moved in yet. Radar shows some stuff south of MS and east of SE LA, but nothing in town yet. 5mph breeze

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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SunNFun
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Redington Beach, FL
Re: Improving satellite signature
      #13927 - Tue Nov 04 2003 11:17 AM

A friend of mine just came in from the GOM and he said he encountered 35 mph winds and some thunder.. it must be picking up steam.. the loops seem to show the center has slowed its N pathway.. if it sits there too long, I wonder if the Low over Texas will push ole Nick right back at Florida? Hmm..

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Improving satellite signature
      #13928 - Tue Nov 04 2003 11:56 AM

I think that possibility will be slim at best hope I'm wrong.The convection is backing off the center again.The flaoter has been reposition in the last 1 1/2 hrs.The pictures are much better than earlier this morning.I was hoping for some good wind sto take all these damn acorns down once and for all this season.

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Improving satellite signature
      #13929 - Tue Nov 04 2003 12:39 PM

Not surprisingly, recon found a westward component to the wind near the low pressure center.

However, no vortex data message yet, and, as javlin noted, the convection certainly has waned and been blown far from the center.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Vortex data message
      #13930 - Tue Nov 04 2003 01:06 PM


URNT12 KNHC 041722
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/1722Z
B. 28 DEG 05 MIN N
88 DEG 11 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 042 DEG 35 NM
F. 140 DEG 38 KT
G. 048 DEG 035 NM
H. EXTRAP 1008 MB
I. 24 C/ 324 M
J. 24 C/ 321 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/01
O. 0.1/6.0 NM
P. AF861 02HHA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 1709Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Vortex data message
      #13931 - Tue Nov 04 2003 03:23 PM

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2003

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 30-35 MPH TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD COOLER WATERS...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND SOMETIME
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND IN STATEMENTS
ISSUES BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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