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Watching 94L off the Mid-Atlantic for possible subtropical or even tropical transition this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nicholas) , Major: 58 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1112 (Michael) Major: 1112 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Second vortex data message
      #13932 - Tue Nov 04 2003 03:25 PM

URNT12 KNHC 041928 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/1928Z ..............CORRECTED FOR DATE
B. 28 DEG 28 MIN N
88 DEG 35 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 136 DEG 96 NM
F. 205 DEG 33 KT
G. 136 DEG 80 NM
H. EXTRAP 1006 MB
I. 23 C/ 302 M
J. 24 C/ 308 M
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/01
O. 0.1/ 15 NM
P. AF861 02HHA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 1709Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
all of you
      #13933 - Tue Nov 04 2003 05:15 PM

Fun to read what you are all posting, even now while there really isn't anything going on. But, I'm reading. Who knew I could be so quiet? Huh?

Keep writing, til its over.



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Steve H.
Registered User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 2
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
Re: all of you
      #13934 - Tue Nov 04 2003 10:31 PM

Well, I certainly don't think the season'e over yet! Strange pattern setup for this time of year, with strong ridging in the Atlantic and flat ridge building across the SE into the GOM. Front expected to stall across the Florida peninsula later this week, with another strong ridge building down the Ohio valley. What's it all mean. Not sure. But there's convection blossoming from the east coast of Florida (watching thunderstorms off to the south out the window) down through the Caribbean out into the Atlantic. With ridging to the north, would expect pressure falls somewhere in the basin. Not sure where. Models are hot and cold with some showing closed lows in the central Atlantic and others showing the Caribbean. Climatology may be affecting model output, but to what extent I don't know. I expect another storm out of all this though, could be the Caribbean and/or the Atlantic. Anyone know if JB is jumping on anything/idea in the basin. Please don't quote. Just wanted to see if he feels the pattern will produce anything else this year. Cheers!!

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: all of you
      #13935 - Wed Nov 05 2003 02:54 AM

can only look to the nao-positive pattern and the corresponding SOI index, as that MJO graphic has been consistently out recently.. but it looks as if the basin is mostly neutral to development if not slightly favorable. 96L is going inland tonight having exhibited spotty tropical characteristics but never meeting the convective requirments to speak of (though recon did find something resembling a sheared tropical system). it's rained here a good bit this evening, and may do some more as convective cells are training onshore nearby as part of the system's lone 'rainband'.
aside from convection popping east of the islands, and some caribbean convection with no surface feature under a ridge.. there isn't a great deal going on--though i wouldn't count out some pattern-triggered development. when NAO flips around mid-month (it should?) there may be one last look to the western caribbean, which hasn't contributed much to the season thus far.
aside from that, things are on the slide. currently at 14-6-3, my 13-7-3 season prediction was satisfyingly close for now.
i have little to go on for 2004.. and the time is near for that (becoming an annual ritual).
another year with no major hurricane hit on the u.s. that's four years in a row. considering that we've had 56 classifiable systems in that time, 12 majors.. not one has hit. the long term statistical average would have given us four major hits.. we beat the odds year after year.
curioser and curioser, as we plummet down the rabbit hole.
HF 0652z05november


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: all of you
      #13936 - Wed Nov 05 2003 08:17 AM

ITs the Mouse ears in Orlando and the Hot Air in Tallahassee that protects the State of Florida. ( no personal insults intended). Just the way it is. An ill wind blows and haven blown portends more evil than men have known. Ok my two cents worth today.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
Re: all of you
      #13937 - Wed Nov 05 2003 09:21 AM

I'm just in time to add more useless info into the 96L debacle. Its on shore with a whimper it appears with none of the fanfare that the models seem to project last week.

I still don't think things are quite done as we have an unusual, almost early October setup in the Atlantic and an active ITCZ. I still think we have one more named in our future, but what do I know?

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
south of cuba
      #13938 - Wed Nov 05 2003 12:24 PM

And my eyes wander south down towards that region of the Caribbean, south of Cuba where Bastardi lusts after a Caribbean Hurricane. He can almost taste it and yet he can't force it to happen.

My eyes can see the possible beginnings of something twisting that would give JB a smile the size of Pittsburgh.. if only it would stay a little longer... attract some necessary convection, get rid of those wild winds that are zooming up over the top of it and ...if it would only just catch fire on the IR then we would all be watching those twisting clouds caught in some atmospheric curl and wish it northward up to Florida

I'd keep watching if I were you all.. not much else worth watching and there is a twist and it does catch your eyes

If you will only look and open your mind to the possibilities.

Otherwise... wrap up the season and get out your copies of Twister :P

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
heat
      #13939 - Wed Nov 05 2003 03:20 PM

near record highs here, heat index well into the 90s. the tropical airmass with disturbance 96L has brought the temps well above normal, does not feel like november at all. low is onshore over near the ms/al border.. a east of hattiesburg, north of mobile. stalling out and probably near decay at the surface. not sure why the models are being knocked as having misread the low.. at times they showed a slightly stronger system, but most runs from practically every model indicated a strong open wave to a weak low.. thats pretty much on the money. nothing very impressive in the deep tropics today, nothing on the table. wave energy is making it westward again, though.. so we have culprit impulses that may do something if the pattern sets up right in a few days.
easier to look for a subtropical/hybrid type storm which is just as common this time of year. right now pattern is flat, so nothing interesting at those latitudes. around nov 13th, the following weekend.. pattern should flip to nao negative.. when the switch throws watch for that chance development. then again the season may have ended with nicholas.
HF 1920z05november


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: models
      #13940 - Wed Nov 05 2003 06:29 PM

Yea Hank how often have we discussed that the models have a hard time initializing on a non existent system per say and get the track right.The ? remains and will for sometime on the intensity ?.The area S of Cuba sure is juicey right now.No circulation I can see but this look like the place something could happen if needed.I was 25 miles from where the little wimp came in and I could not tell.I guess I keep these damn acorns for a little while longer.This by far the heaviest season yet for them this year.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: models
      #13941 - Thu Nov 06 2003 12:29 AM

Take a look at the 11/06 00Z CMC. Could be interesting for the Greater Antilles and maybe Bahamas. There's a front moving through here on Friday, and that's supposed to be out by Monday and supposed to warm up again, so whatever front comes down is either going to stall out or lift out probably with another high building in behind it. That could (5-10%) raise some interest for south Florida. But hey, you guys are watching anyway.

Oh yeah, the CMC. Btw, what it develops comes from east of the current flareup down in the West Car.

00Z Canadian Run @ PSU

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Thingy South of Jamaica
      #13942 - Thu Nov 06 2003 09:19 AM

that thingy south of Jamaica looks at least as Viable as the thingy that passed over Florida this week without a whimper. I figure now that tropical season is just about over, I can revert to babble.
However, I want to point out that we are having July weather around here in November and my fruit tree is blooming like crazy. It thinks that the 65 degree low we had one night last month was winter. I will be getting peaches in December if we dont get below 70! Strange goings on. But, this is the weather I came south for so bring it on!!!

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Unregistered User





Re: models
      #13943 - Thu Nov 06 2003 10:26 AM

I would think by now you and Bastardi would be sick of eating crow, but he makes a lot of money getting people like you to pay for his chicken little cry's the sky is falling. Bastardi track record this past year is nothing to talk about and to think some people even pay to listen to his chicken cry's .


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
CMC model
      #13944 - Thu Nov 06 2003 10:47 AM

yeah looked at it, nice for dreamers but you never know..

notice there has been weather there in the area that it would come out of but the strong winds/shear keeps blowing it apart, would say tenacious and odd for this time of year to see anything east of the islands

as john hope would say "not in a favorable area"

but hey... 3 weeks or so and the season is OFFICIALLY over and with an eclipse coming up and strange weather (mary's peaches) who knows?

pouring in miami, not november stationary front hanging rain but very tropical

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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SunNFun
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 11
Loc: Redington Beach, FL
Re: south of cuba
      #13945 - Thu Nov 06 2003 02:21 PM

<< My eyes can see the possible beginnings of something twisting that would give JB a smile the size of Pittsburgh. >>

of course, Pittsburgh is nearly bankrupt so that might be too big Lois! hehehehe Anyway, convection firing up all over the place down here.. the storms are moving nowhere just sitting on top of us spewing lightning all over the place. Really7 a strange pattern to be seeing so late in the season.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Interesting info...
      #13946 - Thu Nov 06 2003 03:17 PM

This is from Wxrisk.com:

"In this regard is sometimes useful to look at the overall hurricane season and see what if any clues might be given by the pattern of the hurricane activity as well as what we are seeing so far halfway through autumn 2003. But one must be careful with this and NOT read too much into it.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2003/track.gif

The hurricane season of 2003 featured numerous Cape Verde systems - tropical waves and tropical depressions -- that failed to develop into significant Tropical Cyclones for the most part. There were two notable exceptions -- Hurricane Fabian and Hurricane Isabel. As the map shows most of the hurricane activity occurred in the Tropical and subtropical Atlantic which is why the Track of Isabel is such a standout. We can clearly see that MOST of the TC activity recurved to the East of the 65 degrees Longitude line.

In considering our analog years we can see that the season of 1960 and 1979 shows almost no similarity to the hurricane season that is now coming to a close. In the 1958 hurricane season we can see more of the recurvature that is similar to the 2003 hurricane season but by far away the Best match appears to be the hurricane season of 1969."

1969 Season

BTW, in case anyone could forget, 1969 featured a storm named Camille...

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Hey Swede...
      #13947 - Thu Nov 06 2003 09:16 PM

>>I would think by now you and Bastardi would be sick of eating crow, but he makes a lot of money getting people like you to pay for his chicken little cry's the sky is falling. Bastardi track record this past year is nothing to talk about and to think some people even pay to listen to his chicken cry's .

First of all, you need to chill. I paid for his service up until early October - that was 3 months at $14.95 each. What's it to you? The last thing I read by him that wasn't posted by someone else was around October 12th or so.

But just to show that you haven't got a clue what you're talking about (and that's too bad considering I'm 25% Swede myself), his seasonal landfall forecast was fairly on. He missed on his FL hits, but the season isn't over yet. I doubt he gets what he wanted.

Ironically, I also missed on my FL hits. I almost got two, but neither of them formed before landfall, and 96L/Nicholas Remnants never actually formed into anything. But in case you think I parroted his ass, my forecast came out before his did. Feel free to find another one by any so-called EXPERT (including Bastardi) that came close. It's available on this site, or you can go to Storm2k and see it there if you want - all in black and white.

Do better and then you will be free to criticize me anytime you want to. As far as the reference to the CMC, I found it on my own. It wasn't really hard. I got it from the PSU site and linked it. It appeared interesting as there were some waves coming in from the east. Much of the web was enamored with the activity south of Jamaica which now appears to have phased (or is phasing) with the activity off the east coast. The CMC brings something up and over from east of there. While it has drummed up plenty of phantom storms this year (as have many of the models), it was still worth noting.

See it's easy for someone to criticize others - whether that be me, Bastardi, Ed, LoisCane or anyone else - when they themselves contribute nothing. Perhaps if you actually would have said something for yourself instead of taking a cheap shot or trying to knock someone else down, then you and your opinions might be of value in the future.

So I tell you what. I'll pat my own damn back and post my forecast right here in the next thread and YOU say where I off. If you have access to JB's forecast, feel free to debunk it if you have the fortitude.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Hey Swede...
      #13948 - Thu Nov 06 2003 09:21 PM

For the record, JB's forecast came out around June 7th or 8th. I put one out on this site, but the thread was deleted. I copied and pasted it on May 31st at Storm2k for their seasonal forecast thread.

Debunk away, but first, show my your take on the season from before it started:

Posted: Sat May 24, 2003 3:31 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's my shot in the dark 2003 hurricane forecast. Take it for what it's worth - absolutely nothing. But since everyone wants to have their say, I'm going to have mine. Don't beat me up too bad over it when it's all wrong in the end. It's long, so sorry about that.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm going with 14/8/4. All data I've perused indicates that this will be a memorable season. I don't have a clue if these numbers will pan out, but I went into last year with a 13/8/3 prediction. I was better on my landfalls.

So far we know that the mean trof position is likely to be even further west than last year's. It is liable to fluctuate between the Western Lakes and the Northern Rockies. Last year's avenue through the US was between 88-92W. This year it's more wide open. Landfalls could occur between 80-97W depending on relative conditions at the time the storms are in the area. I had a guru tell me that he believes the the MJO will be in the area in August. That could mean an earlier start to the meat of the season than we've seen in a couple of years. I'm predicting a minimum of 5 named storms in some part of the Gulf of Mexico.

We could see as many as 6 or 7 landfalls this year. I'll go out on a limb and predict 1 hit between the Upper Mexican Coast and Corpus; 1 landfall between Corpus and New Iberia/Vermillion Bay, 2 landfalls between New Iberia and Panama City Beach, 1 landfall between Key West and PCB, and a landfall in SE Florida which could be a dual landfall (ala Betsy, Andrew, et al). The Outer Banks is always a potential target, so that goes without saying. And there's always the shot that if the Bermuda Ridge is placed just right, there could be a hit between coastal Virginia and Maine.

In the peak part of the season, some indications are that the NAO may be neutral to slightly positive this year. If my failing memory is right, we had a negative NAO for the heart of the season last year. Water profiles in the Gulf and off the east coast are somewhat similar to last year. In some places, the water is already running warmer, the exception being right along the shoreline in the NE. In contrast to last season, there is no serious drought in the mid-Atlantic. One lesson from last year was that whenever the water is warm off the NE Coast and there are drought conditions in the mid-Atlantic, they will be broken by the hurricane season.

What could be interesting this year, and I'll be waiting for Kevin, Rob and TWW's forecast due out Sunday is whether or not the MJO is a factor in September and early October. If my source is right and its peak effect is earlier in the season, we'll have to see when it comes back around again in relation to whatever the Fall brings. It's almost like 2003 could peak differently than what we saw in 2002 and 2001.

As noted in other posts, the NOAA predicts storm tracks to be further south this year, so there is a good chance that we might see more CV storms or those originating in the Atlantic. This could mean landfalls of stronger storms than the close-in stuff we saw last year that consisted in all but 1 case of tropical storms. This is unknown, but my money is with storms being stronger this year than what we saw last year.

I'm not honing in on a specific target zone, because the entire Gulf and SE coast looks to be ripe for mother nature's pickins this year. (I had Bay St. Louis-Pensacola last year). If the Bermuda Ridge is as strong of an influence as what I'm thinking (and I was dead on that last year) there will be an aiming mechanism.

Joe B ranks 1995 as one of the analog years with similar water termperature in the Pacific and precipitation patterns across the states. Some differences include a negative NAO and warmer water further east in the Atlantic. FYI, here are the tracks for the 1995 Hurricane Season. One will note the fair number of gulf hits (Dean, Erin, Opal) but the otherwise incredible amount of fish spinners that year. There were 18 named storms.

Now I'm not thinking we're giong to have 18 named storms in 2003, but if for some insane reason we did, there would be a tremendous landfall potential.

http://www.cotf.edu/ete/modules/elnino/crfig13.html

Steve


--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Hey Swede...
      #13949 - Thu Nov 06 2003 09:26 PM

So as advertised, it wasn't perfect, but it wasn't all that bad considering all I had going against my forecast climatologically. So again, put up or shut up. And FWIW, I don't mean to be ugly, but if you're going to stand on the perimeter and throw stones, I cordially invite you to step up to the plate and show where you had something better, and therefore, are worthy of the criticism you dished out.

Otherwise - sorry to everyone else. But I'm not going to grab my ankles even if I refuse to get personal or ugly with another user.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Hey Swede...
      #13950 - Thu Nov 06 2003 10:50 PM

Ed will probably nuke this cause it's "off topic" but, glad to see someone put up his dukes against the "old swede". Joe B rocks my friends, and he keeps most interested, even if he is wrong...at least he has the cajones to try...Talk to you soon...even if it's about nothin'...CFHC rox!

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Rules of Engagement
      #13951 - Thu Nov 06 2003 11:25 PM

For the benefit of new Registered Users, I really only insist on two things:

1. You can offer a differing opinion on someone else's point of view, but you cannot direct a post against an individual.
2. Off-topic material must be posted in the appropriate Forum and not on the Main News Feedback or the Storm Forum.

If you can live with those two rules, you are certainly most welcome to post on this site. If you cannot, you will not gain much from the site and your experience here will be counter-productive (and perhaps short-lived). CFHC is not the largest tropical weather site on the web, but the quality of its posts make it one of the best. We don't come here to bicker - we come here to share knowledge. Lets keep it that way.
Thanks,
ED

Ed Dunham
CFHC Moderator


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