LI Phil
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Thanks for the links Steve. I'll have to bookmark them. Looks like the data are portending an above average season. Cheers, Phil.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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summercyclone
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However, Dr. Gray has recently said the correlation between Sahel rainfall and tropical cyclone formation has broken down for reasons unknown, and he no longer considers it a factor in the development of his seasonal forecasts.
West Gulf looks interesting---except it is May, and a rope cloud (sign of lack of tropical development) has appeared. However, appears there may be a vorticity center behind the main cloud mass, close to Tx/Mx border.
The Orbital Cyclone page did opine the season may (no pun intended) start early.
sc
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LI Phil
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SC-thx for that info. Still trying to understand all this stuff. Did Dr. Gray give any rationale for discounting the Sahel data? I'd actually never heard of it before (newbie, of sorts), but it seemed a valid factor in TS development.
If any of you guys (or gals) w/more experience have any other pre-season predictors, let the board know. Wondering if Ed will start a new thread over the weekend for the 2K4 season...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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climate slowly changes all the time; the sahel rainfall correlation means/meant something, but recently something else is overshadowing its significance. 'with extreme complexity' is a good description for how the earth operates--all sorts of things are going on at once, some we understand, some we don't, and the relative significance of any one changes given the situation. the sahel correlation isn't working, and i'm just as happy... the u.s. east coast has taken only ONE major hurricane hit in the last decade. that's statistically way off the mark. the gulf coast hasn't fared much worse.
by the way, steve.. it was your earlier mention that bastardi was noting a surge out of the tropics that got me looking there to begin with. you brought it to the table here first; i should make mention that i'm only making a secondhand sighting. a further note would be that there seems to be an wave propagating eastward from the westpac (possibly triggered indian ocean systems around a week ago, now the area east of the phillipines is active). wish i had an idea when it gets to this side of the big blue ball. maybe end of the month. the model has the suspicious feature's first manifestations around late next week, into the following week... probably too early for to get across. if it keeps peeking by tuesday/wednesday.. get psyched. may disturbances usually only give us an invest that shears out.. it's been more than twenty years since one went 'all the way'. low probability event if it goes.
eastpac all quiet.
HF 1623z15may
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stuart dave
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Its comforting to know that hurricane alley is not predicting any strikes in South East Florida this year.t
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Steve
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I almost sought out Tropical Weather Watcher on another board the other day to ask him about the . On either Wed. or Thurs, there was a massive diurnal blowup on and off Mexico, in the Gulf and in the Lower Mississippi Valley. There were extra colors (/bobbi) pulsing, and it looked like there was some extra motivation with all the whites (higher cloudtops) on all the sysetms at the same time relative to what the rest of the week saw. Something was up anyway.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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While browsing for some updated info on the current worldwide state of climactic conditions, I stumbled on the following information, which I thought might be useful:
"The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state. Equatorial SST anomalies are near zero, and have changed little from March. The monthly was strongly negative, largely as a result of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity in early April. The three month (February-April) continues in the neutral range. For April and for February to April, the NINO3 SST anomaly was about +0.2°C, and NINO4 was about +0.4°C. Subsurface temperatures show negative anomalies near the surface in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, with positive anomalies in the farther west, both of which appear to be propagating east. Most of the global models indicate that neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for the rest of the year, though the chance of an El Niño developing is slightly higher than average."
First mention I'd heard of a possible El Nino this year. What does it mean? HF, Steve, Ed, sc, anyone want to take a stab?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat May 15 2004 11:05 PM)
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Steve
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Models are mostly neutral to warm in the distant term. They've been saying that off and on since La Nina came back up a few years ago and has kind of held on in the EPAC zones. Positive in the zones in this hemisphere make for a stronger subtropical jet stream (SW influence) and add shear (at various MB heights) to the western Altantic, Gulf and Caribbean. El Nino years tend to have surpressed overall activity but are also known to harbor some of the more vicious storms of the last few decades (Andrew, Camile, Betsy and others).
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
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el nino.. i'll believe it when i see it. like steve said, models always calling for it for years, but it hasnt done a whole lot lately. weak-moderate one in 2002 didn't knock a big hole in our numbers, a noticeable one, but not a season-ender.
gfs still calling for that disturbance, still reconfiguring the atlantic shear pattern in a week. nothing to say other than that.. besides that the westpac is running wide open right now.
i've got a mind that the pacific SST config will resemble last year's. also suspect that a spread out, above average season is on the way.. that belies my unchanging numbers.. 11/6/3.
HF 0448z17may
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