LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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JK, thanks for the post. Not a ham guy, nor do I feel that's in my future, but...
Would love to have an update (pix a schweet bonus) of tomorrow's event. Funny, thing, as you were composing your post, was doing a blurb on Hurricane Hunters. Cantore, god love him, was stating that now that Nina (in the WestPac) is "down" to a CAT 2, he'd "love to report live". Just wondering, what's the worst weather you've ever done live (I'm assuming, of course, that you have)? Apparently last year, during Isabel, a local reporter for MSNBC or Fox news or something and Bob Keneely or Mike Seidel or Cantore (sp?) from were both reporting from the Outer Banks during Isabel and a huge gust blew them both off camera...I know viewers have criticized you for "wobbling"; any great stories from the field? Keep up the great posts.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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euro is on the bandwagon now, showing a disturbance a la moving north/northeast from near panama. whatever happens, any system will have a serious fight with shear on its hands. expect an invest will be milling around down there by friday afternoon. if this happens, models will have caught an emergent system more than 10 days out, and out of season to boot.
HF 0402z19may
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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ECMWF is backing off a bit on the 12Z run from what it showed yesterday. It slowed things down a bit too.
Steve
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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I did a number of lives for my first TV station in Mississippi and for ABC network from Hurricane Danny in 97 near Mobile...actually had to duck and cover during a live shot for a feederband tornado that was approaching my location...it lifted before it got to me, but it was an interesting few minutes to be sure....especially for those who were watching and saw me yank my earpiece out and head for cover!
Now a days, if there is one headed for me, I'd likely not even get out in it...my place would be at the weather desk. I got out in the waning moments of TS Barry in '01, but didn't go on the air.
BTW, I strongly encourage anyone who is remotely interested to check out amateur radio...it is a great hobby with a strong public service side. It is easier now to become a ham than ever before...you don't even have to learn morse code!
-------------------- Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Wed May 19 2004 12:14 AM)
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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exciting.. I am ready for the season and it is still just a few days away however.. these small tiny little happenings are really brewing the chat... I love it.. There is always so many new things that I learn each year by being here. I still belive the first storm will happen around June 29th. My son was born that day and he has always loved Hurricane watching as much as I do.
Numbers for the year...
11-5-3
Here's to a great season and hopefully no injuries to anyone.
WXMAN where in Mississippi...? we went through Camille on the gulf coast...
JustMe
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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Inland....Greenville, the Delta Area. Graduated from Miss St in Starkville...my Dad lives in Columbus, I spent 4 years in Greenville. I have a pretty deep connection to Mississippi.
-------------------- Jason Kelley
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp?u=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/public/MIADSAAT
Here we go folks with the first STD of the year with the caribbean system so let's see what happens.
-------------------- My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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Doesnt look THAT exciting to call for a Special Statement, sounds like a test of the early warning system to me.
Nice to see my email alerts are working!
Get back to me though with the REAL THING!
bobbi
hi to all... been reading along the last few days
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Does anyone think this will actually develop any further, or is this about as far as the system will go?
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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They say in the statement that they don't expect it to develop .. just a statement I suppose it's there and they are watching it.
Storms have been large and intense btw blowing off of Columbia and enhancing things down there.
Haven't noticed anyone at "The Day After Tomorrow Weather Channel" (are they like producing that movie or something?)
-------------------- http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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troy
Unregistered
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nah, 20th Century Fox is producing it. Well, soem guys named Roland Emmerich and Mark Gordon are producing it through Fox. is owned by Landmark Inc.
Any over abundance of advertising/promotion is just that paid promotional time.
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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ok thaks Jason
my son played baseball at mississippi state
My husband and I went to Southern
Bulldogs are the best and we have certainly been adopoted by them
thanks and good luck this year
--------------------
I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Steve Hirsch.
Unregistered
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Actually, it says no significant development is expected while the low is over land. But it will come over water in the next few days......hhhmmmm
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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STD's conjur images of colorful (though sometimes nasty) issues /don't delete it Ed!
Last night's global models (the 00Z's) all have different takes in the short-term.
My preference is for the which I think has the best handle on the system although it may be over-intensifying it a bit. The forms the system south of Cuba and moves it up just to the east of the southern tip of Florida (= Miami in the sphere of influence).
The US Model suite takes the system too far east before nudging it off to the NE. It crosses the strait between Cuba and Hispanola. While it does have a handle inasmuch as it shows a system, it is too biased east. As everyone knows, the has problems in the early season with heat transfer from the tropics to the horse lattitudes and always tends to imply an eastern trof.
The UKMet is similar to the Canadian Model, but it is much slower and further south. The UKMet is tending to move the system toward Western Cuba and wanting to shunt it off into the SE GOM. It keeps a stronger ridge north of the system.
Yesterday's 12Z (The "European") (as noted in a reply to HF above) all but discounts the system and slows it down substantially from the 12Z run on Monday. But the 12Z run from Monday is very similar to what the saw last night. I think there's a compromise somewhere.
Anyway, let me go see what Joe B has to say. I'll paraquote him when I get back...
For the future:
The overall pattern, which favors much more trof in the West this year than last year and much more ridge where it was cool and wet last summer, starts coming back and we see the trof heading into the West again, forcing the ridge that has backed up northeastward. This may or may not split the southern part of the trof away for it to turn southward then southwestward over the Gulf for a June development threat over the Gulf. Given the state of the and the warmth of the water ahead of season close to the East Coast supporting feedback and ridge development, looking for systems to split away from the northern branch is something that must be considered...
For now:
In any case, that ridge builds, forces that piece southeastward where it starts to tickle the buildup of heat over the southwest Caribbean. In model world, all modelling I see is now seeing the falling of pressures in the southwest Caribbean, but the European has backed off on the extreme idea it had through yesterday. The Canadian is back to being strongest. The , of course, was too quick on its alley out yesterday, having its usual problems with feedback out of the tropics. But the point here is I have no changes from the ideas of the past couple of days. We should see slow northward expansion of the convection near Panama and low pressure will probably take shape by Friday and start slowly north-northeastward for the weekend. Folks in Florida have to pay attention. Given the overall pattern, there is a chance that this supplies the base for the trof late next week to feed into. Oddly enough, the longer it takes to come up, the better the chance for that as a trof coming through the Northeast early next week out in front of the main digging later next week may fool around with it, if it's far enough.
Beings that it is only May, there is certainly no lock that it develops. But the worry here, as stated in previous posts, is that a burst of development is coming across the tropics, and we look like we could be far enough ahead of schedule to do it. Obviously this is something that is catching my eye.
-----------------------------------------
Damn. Joe B ripped me off!
Steve
-------------------- MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve Hirsch.
Unregistered
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Good thought process steve. If it develops (if the broad low gets over water it will IMO) the answer to where it goes lies somewhere in between the models. Definitely bears a close watch, and if it hangs around long enuf, ridge will rebuild next week which could move it into the GOM. We are at the time of year where these things can happen, so anyone who says its May and it won't develop shouldn't ignore this one. The water is plenty warm in the SW Carib. Cane season is just days away. Cheers!! Steve H.
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902004) ON 20040519 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040519 1200 040520 0000 040520 1200 040521 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 84.5W 12.2N 85.3W 12.9N 85.8W 14.0N 86.1W
BAMM 11.5N 84.5W 12.1N 85.6W 12.7N 86.7W 13.5N 87.7W
A98E 11.5N 84.5W 12.4N 83.6W 13.5N 83.5W 14.5N 83.4W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 34KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 26KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040521 1200 040522 1200 040523 1200 040524 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 85.8W 17.6N 83.0W 20.5N 79.9W 23.9N 78.5W
BAMM 14.3N 88.3W 15.7N 88.5W 16.9N 87.9W 17.5N 88.5W
A98E 15.1N 83.1W 16.3N 81.7W 17.8N 79.7W 19.1N 77.5W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 34KTS 19KTS
DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 20KTS 19KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 84.5W DIRCUR = 60DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 61DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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bobbi
Unregistered
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There's something there... but that area tends to tease and will take a bit to see where and when anything will happen. But, fun to look at..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Thanks steve for your thoughts
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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For anyone interested to see how the models are playing the current disturbance out graphically...
Hurricane Alley Modeling
-------------------- 2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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look closely at the nicaragua/costa rica border
looks like a weak center developing
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Hey guys,
i for one think the area in the SW Caribbean needs watching. It does appear to be drifting east, and may now have moved offshore of Nicaragua / Costa Rica. Also, the fact that several models are now indicating some form of development highlights there must be some consistency in the forecasts.
Regards
-------------------- Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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