HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah, looks like the center is elongating. slim chance it's REFORMING to the NE, but that isn't very likely. marginal SSTs there. drop it to 30%.
HF 0305z26may
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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The Independent Weather dudes have their forecast out. As usual, Rob, Jason and Kevin did a fine job. You can get the detailed forecast here:
Independent Wx dudes' 2004 forecast
I rely on some of their data to correlate my own best-guess for the season. I agree and disagree with some of their landfall zones this year. Never mind that for now, they did a great job.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I was actually rooting for you guys to get your TS, but it looks like 'tis not to be. Still, some ba---sy calls. Your guesses were actually rooted in meterology, whereas mine (June 14th-ish) is a pure guess. Still. Something for us all to watch--the rare if not elusive May TS. Still gonna predict Alex 6/14 in the GOM...of course it's only a guess. Anyone think we'll get our EPAC "B" Storm before our first Atl Alex?
Great to see the boards so active on May 25-26 
Damn, Steve beat me to the IWIN forecast. Glad to see that Kevin is back with Rob & Jason.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 366
Loc: USA
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thats it enlongated center cooler temp and its got some dry air in it check it out http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
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tornado00
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 85
Loc: Maitland, Florida, USA
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June 14th huh? Thats my mom's birthday. haha. Anyhow, I think Alex will form sometime around June 20. This 91L invest seems to be losing its steam, and I don't think it will do anything. It has a low pressure center, but no convection. I don't think this system is going to be Alex. Alex should form in the Gulf of Mexico, but of course these are all guesses.
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Derek Sutherland
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hey Ya'll, great to be back for another season, just a few more days before the "official" season begins, been an active preseason with the no-name storm hitting the DR/Haiti and other invests. Seems to be a flareup again in the SW Carib, remains to be seen if it'll persist. Looking forward to reading all your posts.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Ed,
Is there a limit on the number of characters we can post? I tried to put something up there, but it won't allow even 1/4 of the post. FWIW, it's only 2 1/2 pages in MS Word, so I can't see as I'm breaking any number of characters guidelines.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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lonny307
Unregistered
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I can't remember this many consecutive days without rain or really any cummulus clouds. What a stuck pattern but as we know here in Florida it won't last. This is some of the characteristics of La Nina even though we're not in that phase. If I recall, Dr. Grey mentioned La Nina in his April update but I don't see one coming. Everybody be prepared and safe this season cause it's going to be a wild ride.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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DRY SOUTH CAROLINA. i've been keeping tabs on my gauge since late march. we had under 3" in april, less than 1" so far this month. not bad yet.. minor hydrologic drought--the streams and subsurface tables are up from all the rain that fell here last year. this is a la nina signal, but the tropical pacific isn't showing that.. cool SST pool has been shrinking some this month. nino 3/4 is warmer too, so the upper sw winds may become anomalously stronger.. that's if the signal starts to overshadow all the other background noise.
lost my bid on the tropical system... it's got clear mid-latitude features today. doesn't post-analyze many systems in, find it unlikely that it will get any official record. padgett will surely make a side-note on it, though. something like 400 people dead in the islands, even if it was just a tropical low. water does most of the killing in tropical systems.
globals hinting at another eastpac system over memorial day weekend. also still pointing to another surge out of the sw caribbean mid-late next week, possible disturbance/low moving nw to the yucatan and into the gulf. far out, but like the invest we just had, consistently appearing on . but by then, the season will be on.
only news left this week should be a possible eastpac development late, and gray's start-of-season forecast update.
HF 2140z26may
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LI Phil
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The news continues to get worse. It is now being reported that at least 660 are dead, and the toll is expected to rise still. I wouldn't be surprised when all the counting is done if the total is closer to 1,000. Just horrible news. When was the last hurricane that killed 700, Mitch?
Here's the story:
Haiti/DR deaths
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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mitch killed 11,000 people by nov10 1998
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gofin13
Unregistered
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Thank goodness its almost here-What a great site!!! 
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Cycloneye
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Welcome to this board where you will have all the information about the tropics. 
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
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hr, welcome to the boards. I am well aware of the number of deaths and destruction caused by Mitch. My point was that since then, I don't believe any Altantic storm (hurricane or TS) has killed as many as the unnamed system now spinning the fishes. As HF pointed out, rain and flooding can be very deadly, particularly in impoverished/hilly areas such as DR/Haiti & Nicaragua/Hondouras. It's just horrible what happened this past week. And as for Haiti, you really have to feel for the people. Most of them live in horrific poverty and have spent countless years under the oppresive reign of Aristide, who we finally got rid of this winter. I'll bet the death toll would have been even higher were it not for the presence of US troops (and their medical supplies & equipment), sent there to help reconstruct the country after Aristide's ouster.
Hopefully Hispaniola will be spared more drenching in the coming days...they certainly don't need any more rains...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Phil Puerto Rico has also a big problem when it rains a lot as flooding happens many times.This time after that trough of low pressure which affected Puerto Rico too caused one death.The most deaths of people are caused by floodings and it not has to be a hurricane because for example here in Puerto Rico in October 5 1985 a tropical wave caused a mudslide killing 85 people at a barrio of Ponce at southern Puerto Rico.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
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C-"I",
Yeah, I was gonna include PR along with Hispaniola as one of those geographically at-risk areas. It's extremely fortunate that there was only one death from that recent system. Of course, in PR the radio/media are much better than in Haiti & DR. There are many villages that either can't receive radio signals, or there isn't any electricity at all, so they are left relatively unprepared. Also, it is my understanding that the storm wasn't that "bad" before sunset, so a number of the now dead went to bed thinking all was OK, only to be literally swept away and to their deaths in the wee hours of the morning, when several rivers left their banks. Glad you came out OK, "See-I"
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Phil what do you think about long range radars in the Southern Bahamas that will cover all of Haiti and western DR because I dont know if NOAA goes to those countries to install them.That would be a good thing because it will let know the authorities that plenty of rain is going to that area and then they can prepare with sufficient time the population.But in this event last saturday night they were not prepared at all because they didn't get warnings about those 10+ inches that fell in less than 6 hours.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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ive seen the flare too i wonder...
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Steve:
No limit that I know of, but I'll yield to Mike or John for the official word.
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
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CI- I'm probably the wrong guy to ask. Steve, HF, or one of our resident mets (ED/scottsvb/JK, et. al.) might be better able to answer your meterology ???. As far as the radars go, be glad that you live on a US territory. Those poor bastards on Haiti/DR don't have in place the early warning systems that we do. Hoping you're "High & Dry".
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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