caneman
Unregistered
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Well, seems like everyone is coming out of slumber around the same time. Never been a frequent poster but have been lurkig and occassional poster for years. Great job guys.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue May 18 2004 01:40 AM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>Steve sticks his neck out.
It's a shot in the dark. I'll probably end up being wrong this time.
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Gentlemen - the topic is tropic!
ED
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 8.9N 87.0W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 19.05.2004 8.9N 87.0W WEAK
12UTC 19.05.2004 7.7N 87.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.05.2004 7.1N 86.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.05.2004 7.9N 85.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.05.2004 8.2N 85.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 21.05.2004 8.6N 85.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.05.2004 9.0N 85.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.05.2004 8.7N 85.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.05.2004 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The above mentioned system seems quite disorganised at the moment - does anyone see it developing into anything?
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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First Invest of the year up in the EPAC. Could their season be starting already?
EPAC Invest
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It could be - since 2000 the first storms have all formed by the end of May.
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Spike
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
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It appears that it could possibly form into a tropical storm but I dont know it has the power to become a full blown hurricane. But alot of storms are very unpredictable and it could become a hurricane.
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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Spike
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 221
Loc: Central, Florida
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And Phil if the season really is starting already then we might have a very active season this year 
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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GaryC
Weather Guru
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Posts: 109
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Well, florida could really use a tropical storm to hit and bring some rain. Hopefully not like allison though.
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Back for 2004! Aparently Dr. Gray's report initially assigned % of strike for coastal areas that was pulled because people would be misled into false sense of security...actually people need to understand that a 5% chance of bieng hit with a hurricane is really pretty significant probability, rather that pulling the data...EDS.
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doug
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Now the Tropical Weather Outlook is following 2 areas in the East Pacific. Even though it says 'any development will be slow to occur', it seems that things are really starting to warm up.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Looks like there is some evacuation going on now have to wait and see if this just some pulsation or not.We are about to get another deluge of rain in the next hour or so.Getting time shut things down.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually Spike it usually works the other way, i.e., if the EastPac is very busy, the Atlantic will often be very quiet. 1992 is a good example of this with 24 EastPac storms and only 7 Atlantic storms that year.
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Ed,
Since 1992 is your example year (and a good one), everyone on this board remembers the "A" storm from that year. Is there any evidence that an active year in the EastPac can spawn some deadly CAT 3+ that landfall in the U.S. (right now I'm too lazy to start looking it up)? Remember, it's not the number of storms in any given year, it's where they go. Or is it purely coincidental that we had 'drew w/an active EastPac season? Tomorrow, I'll look into the correlation, but since you've so much experience, I thought you might know of the top of your noggin'
To JK: glad to see you back on the board. Sure wish I could be with you guys in PCB tomorrow. Give us a report on how it went, and if you met (pun fully intended) any posters from this board.
And Steve, congrats upon your 700th post and vaunted "Storm Chaser" status...LOL
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I haven't done any research to compare quiet years in the Atlantic serving up an intense storm or two (when the EastPac has been very active), but I think that others have commented on that connection. I'll leave the archive research effort to one of you folks.
Cheers,
ED
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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as far as systems originating in the pacific hitting the u.s... look at 1949. that's the most prominent example on record. occasionally something rolls up into california or arizona.. and much weakened remnant systems that landfall in central mexico can arrive in texas.. usually stuff that develops out there goes out into the vast north pacific.
i don't think there's a meaningful correlation between when the eastpac season starts and how the atlantic behaves.
HF 0038z19may
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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I too want to see real stats data about how the basins where in terms of activity in past decades.I lost those stats when my computer crashed last year so I can't wait to see those interesting stats about the activity between both basins.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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summercyclone
Unregistered
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However, in one recent year (don't remember which one) it was busy in EPAC in ATL at the same time, although ATL pulled ahead in the end...may have been in the 90s.
sc
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wxman007
Meteorologist
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Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL
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The local Amateur Radio Club is having a special event station at the airport in honor of the P-3 and Director Mayfield's visit to the area. The special event call is W4H, and we will be operating primarily 20 meters SSB (although we might drift around to some other bands as well). We should begin operating at 1000 CDT, or 1500Z Tomorrow Morning (local). I will be near the station tomorrow morning, so if there are any hams out there who want to give us a contact or ragchew, feel free to try and find us. I also plan to take some pictures tomorrow and have them to post tomorrow night.
BTW, I am a ham myself....my call is KC5JEA.
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Jason Kelley
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