javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I think the term that needs to noticed here is weak is used often.The UK model at best looks to like an elongated wave from two to five days out.The shear around PR and the islands is tough.The high over the SE appears it may stay in place keeping the shear factor on in this area.
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bobbistorm
Unregistered
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despite the shear in the area there has been a persistent spin and area of more convection around 11/65.. when everything else disappates it remains
just thought it was curious as early systems are usually more curious than by the books
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MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Just a note to all, I had to move a post off this forum and it took a few replies with it. So I moved the replies to the Storm Forum. Link here Moved replies here
I'm still around folks, just incredibly busy with other things. I do have someone working on improving the site layout and design and adding some features that will be going in through the summer though.
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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A few? You took nearly all of them with it. It's cool though, we can always look them up in the storm forum. Mike, do you foresee any development with the Atlantic system?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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It looks like we will, if we don't already, have a TD in the eastpac. The system in the Atlantic looks like it's undergoing some shear and doesn't look too good right now. Anyone else see this?  You can see both systems on the EPAC goes satellite.
visible loop
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i don't know why the epac system wasn't tagged 1E at 5pm. it's been putting up d1.5 for more than half a day now. guess they're waiting for the eyewall to form again. downstream implications if an eastpac system can get going.. agatha over there means that the upper trough in the nw caribbean may amplify or split.. upstream ridging in the caribbean regardless. tough to call on whether anything is really happening in the sw caribbean.. the convection is all north against the subtropical jet, or over land. it isn't going to develop inside 24hrs. need some offshore convection to persist south of the jet or this is just a rainy trough.
HF 2221z21may
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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HF,
Not sure how #s equate to strength. Does that equate to TD strength? Perhaps you could elaborate. Thanks.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
Phil here is the answer to your question about classifications and what they do in terms of intensity.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thanks C-Eye. So, 1.5 is just a tad below TD status, then, yes? I friggin hate knots. Always have to go convert them to MPH. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Just a reminder that this is NOT an open site, it is a moderated site. Various levels of control can be applied in order to maintain the quality of the material that is posted on the site. The Rules of Engagement are quite simple:
1. No posts are allowed that represent an attack against another poster or against the site itself. You can certainly disagree with another individual's opinion (we do it all the time), but you cannot slander the individual.
2. Crude and offensive language is not permitted...period. In other words if you disagree with someone, be civil about it.
3. Post your material in the proper Forum. If you are unsure where to place your post, if its Weather related, the Main News Page is probably okay. If its not, don't put it there - it probably belongs in the Everything and Nothing Forum. As an example, sports related comments do not belong on the Main Page or in the Storm Forum.
Thats really it - nothing too complex to understand. Every year sooner or later the site will go into a restricted posting mode and Unregistered Users will not be allowed to Post - which is at least one good reason for becoming a Registered User (there are others, including the Private Message capability). When you register, you do not need to fill in the entire Registration Form if you do not wish to do so, however, an email address and a User Name of your selection are required. Try to keep these three basic rules in mind as we head into another enjoyable season of storm analysis and tracking.
Thanks,
ED
Ed Dunham
CFHC Moderator
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Ed, sorry I said "friggin". Didn't think that was considered a "bad" word, but it's the last time I'll use it. On a lighter note, is 1.5 on the scale just a notch below TD status? Thanks.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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dudeinstpete
Unregistered
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Well said Ed !!  RAD
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dudeinstpete
Unregistered
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Have to find my password... ....RAD
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Rad
Weather Guru
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Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
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OK , GOT IT !!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Hey RAD, welcome back. Good to hear from you.
For LIPhil:
Dvorak
For Jason:
One of our members is seeking a good reference book on the structure and dynamics of a hurricane. Any ideas?
Cheers,
ED
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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First book ought to be The Hurricane and it's Impact by LSU Press. (= must read)
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml
There is a hint of rotation (MLC) way down at the picture of the long range loop.It is moving very slowly northward and I dont like it a bit as we dont need more rain here in Puerto Rico as the grounds ae oversaturated.But the key question is if a surface low will form in the area now south of Puerto Rico?
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Sat May 22 2004 12:10 PM)
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scottsvb55
Unregistered
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what i ment couple days ago by saying if anything would form im not sure it would fully tropical is that if low presure did form down in the carribean, it would probably be in the mid levels then fully at the surface. By time it was north of hispaniola it might be better defined. Still things look like a mess to this day down there. Subtropical jet is strong.
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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a mess yes, no more organized than a few days ago (convection is a bit perkier though). still an e-w oriented trough, no real max on it. one of those mesoscale convective bursts may yet end up being the trigger.
more interesting is the implications of agatha upstream. agatha i feel will get a bit stronger than indicated on the official forecast.. think it will cause the upper trough in the nw caribbean to amplify, as well as the ridge in the rest of the caribbean.. maybe creating a more narrow jet max that would be ideal to vent a developing surface system. regardless it should keep the convection firing.. it's not unusual that an mlc type system, even on an easterly wave, gets a tropical system started.. not implicitly non-tropical origins (my take versus yours, scottsvb.. same result). for the current disturbance it's really just a matter of convection persisting over low level convergence.. both factors are there, just not aligned quite right at this time.
i'll hold at 35% right now.. this thing could still develop. not quite what was originally envisioned by modeling, but not that different. dropped 90L, maybe they should slap it back up there.
HF 1828z22may
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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LI Phil brought up something that i'd like to bring attention....
anybody who watches the tropics who wants to keep ahead of the game ought to keep an eye on the ratings. probably most of the people here know this stuff already, but for the newbies and others... ssd is one of the sub-agencies within NOAA that refers to when deciding how to rate tropical systems (in lieu of direct measurements).
go to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov and scroll down to position and intensity. it's self explanatory.
everything runs on a .5 incremental scale. the doesn't classify everything being tracked/rated, usually bumps systems to depression when they put up a 2.0. 1.5s usually don't get depression status (though many likely technically qualify, as what constitutes a weak tropical depression is vague).
at 2.5 you've got a weak tropical storm, 3.0 moderate, 3.5 strong, and 4.0 you've got a minor hurricane. anything past 5.5 is very powerful (7 and up are extreme).
if you've noticed the info tab at monterrey that hangs over a satelite photo of an invest/storm, it usually contains data that match a particular rating. i'm not sure whether it's an in-house thing or if they get theirs from sab, or ssd, or what. regardless it's usually in agreement with whatever other agencies are saying. want to know how your invest is doing? there's another tool.
a'ite, nuff said. ed, if this belongs in the storm forum, by all means throw your magic switch and let it fall through the trapdoor.
HF 1845z22may
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