Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Way to go out on a limb scottsvb. (How you been btw?)
>>Questions on calling this truly tropical if it even forms at all
If it forms into something named, then it forms into something named. While it would have come out of the tropics, rarely do you have a "truly tropical" system in May or June that doesn't originate from something else (whether that be a post-frontal trof, upper low working its way down to the surface, a wave colliding with energy, etc.)
So if it ends up being named, you won't be wrong because it was never "truly tropical".
I'm only disagreeing with you because I've got my guess for first named storm riding on the activity coming out of there. My posts (and they exist on the board) referenced a system that I thought would come up a bit further west (though still east of Florida) than where the 5/20 models have been trending. I don't usually chase models either, so this was one of those times where the heat buildup along wtih the models argued for potential. We'll see.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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bobbistorm
Unregistered
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would you choose door #1, #2 or #3
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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Matt999
Unregistered
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(inappropriate post removed by Moderator)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu May 20 2004 11:54 PM)
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scottsvb55
Unregistered
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Well steve you could be right. We just dont know exactly whats going to happen until something does form if and where.
I do feel if anything does form it will be pushed NNW towards the SE Gulf. A trough next mid week will replace the strong ridge over the last 2-3 weeks over the eastern US, that should move anything in the gulf NE-ENE across florida if there is anything there. The timing of a possible tropical system in the gulf of where its at might feel the trough or might be already to far w and move of course w towards Texas or NE Mexico. In any case right now we wont jump on anything until maybe tomorrow at the earliest or when the system does develop. On a side note, there are 4 areas of low pressure. 2 in the E Pac, 2 in the carribean. The area in the s-central carribean is a mid level low which some models are showing development with. The area I feel if anything does develop is near Nicaragua. That is a weak but developing area of low pressure near 1010 mb.
Keep up the good posts steve.
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scottsvb55
Unregistered
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why am i already being bashed again in here? I didnt bash anyones thoughts. This is a good reason why I hardly post outside of me working sooo much. BTW I do have a degree in met from . Worked in Ruskin Fl NWS for 2 years. Im just a average guy who loves the weather.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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I wasn't bashing you (didn't think you were talking to me on that post). I tend to agree with you about the Nicaraugan low. You can see the general spin in that area. I think some of the models have been arguing or trying to reconcile the two areas of low pressure on the Atlantic side. The (not a model I personally put a lot of stock in) has actually been arguing between the western most Atlantic area and the Pacific forming a storm out of both and moving it into the SW Caribbean. I agree that it remains to be seen what (if anything) comes out of those areas.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Lonny307
Unregistered
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WOW. The board looks like it is August. Hope it keeps going through October. On the carribean side I just wish we could get a little rain here in Hollywood,Fl. The NWS says everyweek the rainy season is beginning and then puff nothing. They hug the too much. I think it's like the local met says;"the rainy season begins when it starts raining".LOL On the other hand there is always Jackie Johnson to watch.
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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In case anyone hasn't noticed has now issued an invest for the caribbean suspect area.
90L Invest
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Great catch, Jamieweather. I'd been checking the all day and finally gave up. Wasn't going to check again until tomorrow am. BTW, the 90L and 90E are eerily similar. It's almost like they're covering both bases in case the disturbance decides to go into the atl or pac. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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i missed out on yesterday.. got pretty active around here. whether the tropics do the same this weekend is still up for grabs. fairly large area of disturbed weather, as prescribed by models, check. basic shear pattern, check. broad, weak low-mid level turning, check. very unfocused right now.. looks more like an e-w monsoon trough than anything else. if it can stay south of the subtropical jet and have a dominant center develop along it, we're in business.
i'd say 35% for development now. puts invests on lots of systems.. when ssd gives it a rating i'll get really interested. longer it stays south, better the chances it will get organized. it will probably come mostly north, and stay relatively weak if it does develop. a system at 45kt or so would probably get jerked out with the 200mb jet.
thinking leaning back to steve's ideas, recalling the tendency to treat tropical systems like shortwaves. i seriously doubt anything gets into the gulf, and somewhat doubt florida gets company (if it comes west it will be a naked low level swirl, says brain).. strange idea that a system has just as much chance developing near abc islands as it does north of panama..
but of course 65% that invest get any further.
scottsvb, have to opine on your earlier statement.. any nonfrontal closed low pressure that forms in the caribbean and has gale force winds is tropical enough, in my book. until my house is under a glacier this will be my paradigm. but other than that, agree with what you said.
HF 0041z21may
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Thats a nice piece of research. Another interesting year was 1960 with 7 storms in each basin - and a couple of powerhouses in the Atlantic that made U.S. landfall.
ED
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thank you very much, Ed. I didn't think anyone had noticed. I don't know if any of the conclusions I have drawn, one way or the other, are valid. But I do remember enough from Statistics 101 that I think I'm right. Too bad, I was actually hoping for a stronger correlation, but I guess if that were the case, someone would have already pointed that out. 
Now that there's an Atl. invest, do you still think Steve's prediction will not pan out? I'm rooting for him from the standpoint that he really stuck his neck out there, and he just may be right, but of course, I'm rooting against him because I want my guess to be right. Will keep watching.
Again, thanks for the kind words. Kinda makes doing the research worth it. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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I am still listening to the Barometer Bob show, he is suggesting there is a slim chance we could see a Tropical Depression or possible a weak Alex. But as we talked about last night, looks as if the shear will be a limiting factor in any development and this is his thinking also.
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Statistically you know what that means?
and why....
because of the high...
time will tell
thanks for the invest warning
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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javlin
Weather Master
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I don't guys,shear looks to strong right now as much as one can look in anticpation for some development. I don't think that in the current enviroment develoment is possible.Ed might be right on this one.Sure would be interesting though!
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HanKFranK
User
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the eastpac invest.. it's more convincing than its atlantic counterpart. i have a feeling this 3 to 4 day old invest will generate a tropical cyclone. i'd say 50-60% on it.. that a tropical depression forms in 24-36hrs. potential implication is that it begins altering the downstream upper flow, sharpens the upper trough hanging from florida to central america, and causes more ridging in the caribbean. most of the convection down there is east of the model-favored area.. this either means that a shear-shunted system will form and hassle the islands (less likely in my mind) or that the development in the sw caribbean will be trudging and take days (more likely)... or possibly the broadness of the disturbed weather will keep the system unfocused and it won't develop (still most likely).
got to say though, i'm rooting for it. hasn't been a legitimate may atlantic tropical cyclone in over two decades. the timeframe i find it most likely an atlantic depression will form is late saturday-early sunday.
HF 0428z21may
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Spike
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Central, Florida
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Yea it is an interesting though. Most storms are unpredictable, but I guess thats why they are so fasinating. It could alwase form into something. We will just have to wait and see.
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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LI Phil
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HF,
Not that I'm basing this in meterologey, but.... I tend to agree that there's probably a better chance for the EPAC system to develop than the ATL one. One question, am an idiot to think that is covering both bases with this storm (ie, that it could end up in either basin) or are there really two separate and distinct systems out there, with each one, given ideal conditions, capable of generating a TD?
Loveta hear you thoughts on this....
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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garyb
Weather Guru
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Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 16.4N 75.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.05.2004 16.4N 75.8W WEAK
00UTC 23.05.2004 16.2N 75.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.05.2004 18.1N 69.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.05.2004 19.2N 69.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.05.2004 20.6N 70.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.05.2004 22.2N 74.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.05.2004 22.8N 75.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.05.2004 24.1N 70.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.05.2004 24.6N 68.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.05.2004 25.7N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
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David P
Unregistered
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Not much action in the tropics, check out the storms rolling through Michigan and Pennsylvania.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html Info
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