scottsvb55
Unregistered
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great info like always hank. Love your informative posts. I always look forward to hearing what you say and see. Something might get alittle better organized by Monday but shouldnt form into anything till it is NE of Cuba. Anyways hope we all get alot of good info this year from the vets in here. Im sure all the weather surfers will be impressed with it
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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HF:
No 'magic switch' needed - its in the right place - good info too! There's reasonable leeway on Main Page articles, If I strongly feel that something belongs somewhere else, I'll put it there. Otherwise, my preference is to let a good 'thread' continue - my rewards on this site are provided by the posters themselves (so are my headaches, but I'll save that for another time  ).
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Thank you C-Eye, Ed & HF for all the stuff on the scale. Ed's info was a bit weighty, but I love learning all this stuff. Now I understand how works, and will keep in the tropical storm arsenal. Keep up the great posts!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
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Hey Cycloneye, where abouts on PR do you live? Near the coast? I see you're entire island is under a flood watch, and the radar is equally forboding. Hang in there dude. (I somehow picture your house being the one in my storm surge graphic. Hope that's not the case). Once again, thx for the info.
nws pr page
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
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Good Luck to C-Eye also, and everyone else this season!
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Well Phil at least so far today no flood warnings haved been issued however with more rain in sight tonight and on sunday I can expect some warnings for certain places in the island but hopefully that doesn't happen.We dont need more rain as the grounds are oversaturated from over 2 weeks of rains and around 18 inches in spots in central Puerto Rico in that timeframe.I am in a condo safe and dry so I am fine here.  Let's see if the mess in the caribbean goes away or weakens to then return to a more normal weather regime as this month of may has been the wettest may in more than 50 years in Puerto Rico.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
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Hey coop. LTNS (Long Time No See) as it were. Are the coop's models in 2004 working order? What do you forsee for the 2004 season? PCB may be under the gun this season, according to the scouting reports. JK says he doesn't get out into the storms any more...if PC is under the gun, perhaps we can goad him into a live feed...
With Agatha already in the EPAC, things are starting to cook. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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the way those mccs associated with the caribbean disturbance are looking tonight, we may have something sunday. persistence is key, of course.. right now the overall apperance of the system on IR is more impressive than it has been so far.
central caribbean may be the focal point.
HF 0609z23may
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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I'm having fun with the pre-season fine tuning stuff. Obviously my call from last weekend/early week that we'd see something late this week was off. Clearly the potential was there along with convection, but I was too fast. I mentioned that likelihood the day after I made my prediction. Obviously, that's not good enough. But hey, at least we had some pre-season stuff to watch. The key to any future tropical nature for the low pressure is the backing of the ULL across the SE Gulf. It's come a long way in the last two days, but it might be too little to late to salvage any face from Monday's prediction. Whether or not anything ultimately develops, I might still be able to get a little credit if the energy phases mid-week along the mid-Atlantic or NE Coast. Along with the potential energy, we had a potential teleconnection with Typhoon Nida. I'd put it at equal chances that the energy either heads off ENE-NE or phases with a trof just off the east coast and bombs out at least a little. That's the only solice I have left with this one unless the original ideas of a TS miraculously still go down. 20% on that at best? /buzzed
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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know how you feel steve..
personally have always liked central caribbean more than sw carib... only place i can see development and even then real weak chance but wouldnt count it out, looking good on INFARED today... even visible not that bad
buzzed works for me too
bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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HanKFranK
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looks like there's a surface low developing on the southern edge of that convective flare, around 150-200 mi sse of the western tip of the southern peninsula in haiti. check it out on ghcc zoom satelite. approx 16n, 75w. very sheared environment there, so it's going to struggle. the subtropical jet max is nearby; weakening, but still going to be a lot to deal with and a great impediment to development. discussion refers to the disturbance either as part of a surface trough with a 1009 mb low at 16/72... i'd say the low is really at 16/75. appears to be quasi-stationary.
very surprised no invest is up.
HF 1405z23may
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HanKFranK
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with all the convection firing away to the east, the system is inflow starved. that will have to die down some before the weak low near haiti/jamaica can get more convective organization of its own.
HF 1511z23may
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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000
WONT41 KNHC 231517
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2004
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINS
OVER THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION OF THE
CARIBBEAN LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PRODUCE WINDS OF 25-30 MPH OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT
WATERS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get"
- Robert A. Heinlein
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HanKFranK
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nudge system development chances up to 45%. the convective burst weakened and a weak low that appears to be closed (may just be a hairpin vorticity center) is drifting northward in its wake. it will die unless more convection fires, but there is now a significant amount of vorticity at the low levels near hispaniola. if it doesn't refire something else could originate in the area. the chances will be better if the convection to the east weakens and the trades can jam more energy into the area.
as some of the globals (and scottsvb yesterday) have suggested, watch the area north and northeast of hispaniola going into early next week. our current disturbance or its legacy may well be going official around then.
throwing this out now.. outside of a week (around the start of june) wants to send another surge into the sw caribbean. globals are still transitioning the upper air flow in the basin.. there should be mostly ridging aloft in the caribbean in a week. that looks to be the next chance of development.. june 1-5 in the sw caribbean.
HF 1938z23may
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Huricane
Unregistered
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A well defined LLCC forms south of Hati http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/prvs.html
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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definitely spinning... would need some moisture and needs to hang in there but fun to watch.. looks pretty closed
wish there was an invest on it
either way... doing better than i thought it would earlier this morning
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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could be a subtropical depression soon
also, several models forecasting something to form around 25N and between 65 and 75W in about 72-96 hours
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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tropical storm alex, late monday, near 23/67. i'm on about 50% on this, but i'll take the plunge.
HF 0254z24may
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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interesting... enjoy reading what you have to say hank... will see
thanks for your thoughts
bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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Loc: USA
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look like more convection has fired up. this could be alex ill give it 60-70% now
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