hurricane_run
Storm Tracker
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check this out web page
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James88
Weather Master
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While the system looks to be getting better organised, is it possible that the passage over the mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti could disrupt development in the short term?  Perhaps someone could give their opinion?
Thanks
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hurricane_run
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that is pretty rough terrain it depends where you say the center is. whats your estimate
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James88
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To be honest I'm not sure. It's a little tricky to tell from satellite imagery, but it's probably just me! I don't know whether that small cloud swirl to the west of Haiti means anything - probably not.
See if you can find it in this visible loop form the GOES storm floater. Real Time GOES Imagery - Floater Visible Loop
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JustMe
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The mountains can tear up a good storm much less one that is attempting to form. Will be interesting to watch and see once it crosses over if it indeed does
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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javlin
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I see whar you mean.Looks lile one rotation around 21n 74w and possibily another at 22n 77w this look's to be the stronger of the two.Still some strong shear up top development if any I would think be slow.The one thing in favor is that the further W it moves the shear decreases but it's dry.
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javlin
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Well the models are pretty much in agreement that it should start moving NE soon.Kinda of hinting at some development later in a couple of days have to see.The GOM looks like it will become calm in few days with little shear involved.
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James88
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Note also that the Gulf of Mexico seems to have warmed up significantly in the last week or so.
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Rabbit
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg
waves looking pretty strong for this time of year, could be an indication of what is to come later in the season
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LI Phil
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Bugs, I've been noticing that too. The African Wave Train has been in motion for a couple of weeks now. Wonder if it will keep up or subside during CV season. If it keeps up, this will be quite a tracking season...hopefully with lots of fish spinners and nothing that makes it all the way across the pond to the .
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
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James88
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I'm guessing that conditions are still unfavourable for these waves to develop into anything at the moment, but when would conditions become favourable? The earliest CV I know of is Allen (1980) which formed in late July, but could it start earlier?
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Rabbit
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there were earlier ones
although it didnt become a hurricane until the 8th, bertha in 1996 formed way out in the east atlantic on july 5
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James88
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I stand corrected.
Having looked at some past hurricane data, I think it's safe to say that the first CV storms (whether or not they become hurricanes) generally seem to form around the beginning of August, although obviously this doesn't apply to all years.
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LI Phil
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No, not from the famous Dr. Bill Gray, but from Gary Gray of Millenium Weather, here are his 2004 thoughts, for anyone interested...pretty much seems in line with most of the other predictors...but then, he bases much of his own predictions on those of Dr. Gray.
Gray's Predictions
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
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LIPhil or HF is that an ULL to the W of the disturbed weather
kinda of rusty http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
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HanKFranK
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that's the most impressive non-invest i've ever seen. there's clearly a well defined low in the southeast bahamas. it's convective and non-frontal.
no invest, no special statement.
there is a sheared, weak, tropical cyclone near acklins island in the bahamas.
i don't get it.
HF 2240z24may
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Rabbit
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
subtropical characteristics
winds around 40 mph
pressure around 1006mb
somewhat organized circulation center
what is the hurricane center waiting for to classify the first storm of the season as such?
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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They are waiting for a defined circulation...
odd cause i see a spin on north coast of haiti around 23 69
its fun to watch but dont think its classification worthy
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
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I would think that since it's May, they don't want to "jump the gun" too early. However, I'm surprised they don't have an Invest up yet. Maybe tomorrow. ir imagery
Look at that convective flare up in the last two frames!
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
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Loc: South Florida
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watching the water vapor... talking about it..
think that tongue of moisture that is shoving north is going to burst thru the dryness and connect with that stream of moisture running sw to ne off of florida... stream... river, whatever we are calling it... small boundary and think should be really interesting
been a long time since i saw such a chaotic, compelling wv loop or image...not to mention... oklahoma went from dry to filled with moisture in ...frames... covered in white..exploding...
just massive energy out there tonight and can be felt by just watching this image.. and looping it and...enjoyed reading all your thoughts...words...ways you put things
and.............. better than a dry run or dress rehearsal with some fake storm on paper like some emergency services do.. you know tropical storm Apollo or Zito...
but watching this in late may... being able to talk about it online, share it..
fun!
thank you!!
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east.html
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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