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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Steve hirsch.
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Re: From Joe B [Re: LI Phil]
      #15163 - Thu Jun 10 2004 11:21 AM

Well, if I just awoke from a long winter's nap and clicked on a satelite shot of the NW Caribbean, I would definitely say.....hhhhmmmmmmmmm. Cheers!!

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Tropics Guy
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Re: From Joe B [Re: Steve hirsch.]
      #15165 - Thu Jun 10 2004 12:06 PM

Western Carib looking interesting, even though no models are picking up on development., also wave exiting Africa looking strong for now.

AJ

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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James88
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Re: From Joe B [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #15166 - Thu Jun 10 2004 12:18 PM

That wave does look fairly impressive (at the moment). Having said that though things are still a long way from favourable. The water temperatures have recently fallen in that area. However, on the other hand, notice how far north the heat has spread in the W. Atlantic in just a week.

Real Time POES Imagery - Atlantic/East Pacific SST Loop


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Steve hirsch.
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Re: From Joe B [Re: James88]
      #15167 - Thu Jun 10 2004 12:33 PM

Yeah I noticed that also. SSTs from 50W on westward are taking off. Lake Worth 83 degrees this morning. East Atlantic is where it should be now temp wise, but the western Atlantic is cooking. This year we don't have the cold water on the Florida east coast like we had last year! We'll have a bath tub soon!!

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summercyclone
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Gulf SSTs [Re: Steve hirsch.]
      #15168 - Thu Jun 10 2004 12:49 PM

85 degrees at St. Marks this am---has been rising all week.PCB= 80 degrees. Plenty warm enough, not deep enough yet....

sc


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Cycloneye
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SST'S [Re: summercyclone]
      #15169 - Thu Jun 10 2004 01:15 PM

Here in the beaches of Puerto Rico I went this morning to see for myself and feel how the water is and it is warming big time compared with a month ago.84*F was the surface temp at the north coast of PR and as Steve says it is becoming a bathtub in the caribbean and west of 50w.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Thu Jun 10 2004 01:15 PM)


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Anonymous
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Re: SST'S [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15170 - Thu Jun 10 2004 01:24 PM

I don't know about ya'll but the NW caribbean sure is looking pretty awesome for a system that has no chance of development. It kind of reminds me of Allison 3 years ago when the NHC said there was no chance for her until she was right on top of us and they finally had to give her a name. I remember looking at her when she looked exactly like this and saying to myself that there was something going on there. Maybe this time they are right, but then again, maybe they're wrong.

SoonerShawn ( a.k.a. ShawnS)


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summercyclone
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Re: SC and NW Carib [Re: Anonymous]
      #15171 - Thu Jun 10 2004 01:48 PM

Well, it's early afternoon, and what have we got?

1. Off SC, there is obviously a circulation, looks low level, but, also, it is getting stretched nne-ssw and sheared. It is organized, however. TWT= time will tell.

2. NW Carib definitely looks like it is spinning up, but, hard to tell how much is on the surface. However, there is definite cyclonic curvature, and convection is firing. Wonder if pressures are falling at the surface?? Definitely bears watching...


sc


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Anonymous
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Re: SC and NW Carib [Re: summercyclone]
      #15172 - Thu Jun 10 2004 01:56 PM

Well check this out Interesting http://www.wunderground.com/global/JM.html

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James88
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Re: SC and NW Carib [Re: summercyclone]
      #15173 - Thu Jun 10 2004 01:57 PM

Maybe if the system continues to develop it will be assigned an invest, or at the very least get a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook. I will agree with what others have said - there do seem to be some comparisons with Allison in '01.

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javlin
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Re: feeding or being fed [Re: James88]
      #15174 - Thu Jun 10 2004 02:19 PM

If you look at the feature in the SW Caribbean on a WV loop is it being fed the air on the W side or is it feeding on the W side.I really cannot tell.Seems to me if it is feeding maybe something happening?I really do not see alot of signature for rotation yet except maybe a little at mid-level maybe.If it is feeding though then a rotation has to provide the influx.Just some thoughts.Maybe someone on the board could provide some insight.

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LI Phil
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Tropical Outlook from accuwx [Re: javlin]
      #15175 - Thu Jun 10 2004 02:36 PM

accuwx has said this about the disturbance off the Yucatan:

"However, a wave along 89 west is interacting with an upper level system near the Yucatan. This interaction is causing considerable cloudiness and large thunderstorm clusters just northeast east and southeast of the Honduran and Nicaraguan coastal areas. This is an area of disturbed weather that will have to be watched. Currently all the unsettled weather is mostly being caused by the upper level system just east of the Yucatan of Mexico. Current global computer models show no lower level organization to this system during the next few days."

The models may not be developing it, but it sure does look healthy enough to develop. I'm wondering if NRL will put up an invest anytime soon...

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Tropics Guy
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Re: Tropical Outlook from accuwx [Re: LI Phil]
      #15176 - Thu Jun 10 2004 02:43 PM

Weather on Roatan island, just off the north coast of Honduras., winds from the south and the pressure 29.88 and falling. A LLC may be trying to form in the area.

AJ

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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summercyclone
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Re: SC and NW Carib [Re: Anonymous]
      #15177 - Thu Jun 10 2004 02:43 PM

Pressures are not too low, but definitely, windy there! Thanks!

I did notice rope clouds on the west side of the disturbed area, these normally do not indicate a developing trend...twt

sc


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summercyclone
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Re:Roatan [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #15178 - Thu Jun 10 2004 02:45 PM

Thanks --the most significant thing about that ob is the south wind....

sc


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javlin
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Re: Tropical Outlook from accuwx [Re: LI Phil]
      #15179 - Thu Jun 10 2004 02:45 PM

That kind of answers the ? If it is being fed does not that cause something like a false echo.The upper level looks to be developing but it is actually not.The signature of rotation is actually caused by the upper level system's interaction with the wave.See how this plays out.I do not feel like tipping the boat either way.

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Wild Cat
Unregistered




Question about the Clouds in the Carib [Re: javlin]
      #15181 - Thu Jun 10 2004 03:03 PM

I have a question for some of you who know more than me about the Tropics. When I look at the satelite the clouds from the Carib look like a frontal boundary. I know its not a frontal boundary, but it does look connected. So, my question is--Is the area of cloudiness in the NW Carib connected to the area of rain over Florida? What they call a trof axis, or something like that. It seems to be part of an elongated trof of some kind. From the NW Carib up to that area off of South Carolina actually. Does anyone else see this?

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Tropics Guy
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Re: JB's take on the Carib [Re: Wild Cat]
      #15182 - Thu Jun 10 2004 04:36 PM

From JB's afternoon comments:
wave along 89 west is interacting with an upper level system near the Yucatan. This interaction is causing considerable cloudiness and large thunderstorm clusters just northeast east and southeast of the Honduran and Nicaraguan coastal areas. This is an area of disturbed weather that will have to be watched. Currently all the unsettled weather is mostly being caused by the upper level system just east of the Yucatan of Mexico. Current global computer models show no lower level organization to this system during the next few days.

AJ

--------------------
Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"


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James88
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Re: Question about the Clouds in the Carib [Re: Wild Cat]
      #15183 - Thu Jun 10 2004 04:36 PM

I see what you mean. It does seem to have the appearance of an elongated trough, but that's just what I can see. I may be wrong. The Tropical Weather Outlook has finally given the system a mention, but doesn't expect much:-

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDRSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY.


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LI Phil
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Re: JB's take on the Carib [Re: Tropics Guy]
      #15184 - Thu Jun 10 2004 04:40 PM

Tropics Guy,

I posted that very quote about 8 posts before you. You even replied to it. LOL

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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