anonymous
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hurricane run you need to use spell check and/or grammar check
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hurricane_run
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sorry i type to fast and i have slight dyslexia. (its gotten much better with profesional help) once again sorry
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LI Phil
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HR,
It's cool. It's just that in the past there have been several posters (some of whom I think are now banned) who posted somewhat incoherently. Just makes them harder to read.
Earlier Bobbi/Lois made mention of Camille being a wave that drifted across the pond from Africa. Checked a couple of tracking sites that indeed showed Camille only being recognized as a TS just south of Cuba. So I did a little digging and found out that it was indeed a CV hurricane, it is just that with the primitive tracking available back then, no one really noticed it's trajectory. Here's a somewhat interesting first hand account of the storm:
"First noticed as a tropical disturbance off the coast of Africa in early August, Camille's beginnings were rather unremarkable. For the next several days, the disturbance became more and more organized, prompting the Air Force to send a reconnaissance plane in to investigate on August 14th. Enter Tropical Storm Camille in the western Caribbean. But Camille didn't remain a tropical storm for long. It continued to intensify, reaching hurricane strength the following day. Located 60 miles southeast of Cape San Antonio, Cuba, Camille's winds reached 115 mph. On August 15th, Camille claimed her first 3 victims as it struck Cuba. It dropped 10 inches of rain on the western end of the island with winds gusting over 100 mph. On August 16th, another Air Force reconnaissance team flew into the eye of the hurricane. The information they radioed back to the National Hurricane Center sent chills up the spines of the forcasters. Camille was now a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph. There was no question the monster storm would strike the Gulf Coast of the United States. The only question was where?"
There's much more of course, but the point is that these waves, particularly later in the season, must be watched. Not every one needs an Invest, but still, Camille was an example of a long tracker that literally "stayed below the radar screen." I'm wondering if there are more such storms that only got organized much closer to the US but were really "born" much farther east?
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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I'm sure many of those storms that formed close in came in under the radar so to speak..or there was no radar.
I mean.. do we know where the 1935 storm that came out of nowhere..from a small tropical storm blew up magically?
More a case with old storms that if a storm formed in a forest where there was no one... no one knew til it was on top of them.
Have my own thoughts on the 1935 storm but thats for another day.
As for Camille... actually pretty common I would say for an early wave which it was to make it in another pond. If they sent in recon in the Western Carib on 8/14 one would have to imagine it came off Africa several days earlier.. a week earlier would be 8/7 which is way before Peak of the Season or prime time for Cape Verde Storms. Of course they do form earlier than Sept ... Donna would have rolled off late in August as she came to Miami early September.. but I believe Donna formed far out there.
Sometimes I guess storms just sneak up on you.
Think to ask Ed or Hank what the numbers say as to where storms BOMB out or up whatever the phrase is fastest. Have heard they have a tendency to do that in the W. Carib (Gilbert, Allen, Camille, Mitch) more so than other areas.. but not sure.
Anyway...have a great weekend.
Anyone gets a chance go to Neil Frank's website in Houston and read the history article.. done a few years back, great hurricane reading. Hurricane's touched that man in such a deep personal way as opposed to a scientific observer.
Soupy summery weather here btw in Miami.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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LI Phil
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Just a quick note on the subject then I'm done. Here's some more on Camille:
"Camille formed near the island of Grand Cayman in the Caribbean on August 14 from a tropical wave that had been tracked from the African coast where it emerged on August 5. " (from CHC - Canadian Hurricane Centre)
"Camille started as a tropical wave that moved off Africa on the 5th but did not get organized until she reached the Caribbean Sea" (from Midwest Hurricane Center)
"She was born on August 5, 1969, like so many of her Atlantic predecessors, a modest tropical wave off the western coast of northern Africa. Over the course of the next several days, the as-yet unnamed system migrated across the Atlantic, its barometric pressure gradually dropping, its winds increasing. " (from Disasterrelief.org)
"The course taken by the storm was a small tropical wave on August 5, 1969, off the African coast to its landfall at 10:30 p.m. on August 17 with top winds over 200 mph and having inundated Pass Christian with its highest recorded flood surge of 24 feet." (personal account)
There are many many more, of course, but all y'all get the idea. Lets just hope we don't see anything like Camille ever again, in Pass Christian or anywhere else in the gulf.
LI Phil
(yes, Ed, I know this belongs in the Hurricane History forum, but as you so eloquently put it yesterday, nobody puts their posts in the appropriate forums. Feel free to move it there if you so desire. It's where it belongs)
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Spike
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LI Phil what causes these waves to form so easily and fast off the coast of africa?
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Patrick
God Bless America
Be proud of your Country!
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LI Phil
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Well, Spike, the short answer is climatology. I'm sure Ed, Jason, Steve, HanKFranK or Scottsvb (or C-Eye) could elaborate a bit more, if they so desire. But really, it's just cyclical weather patterns. We're in a very "wet" period for West Africa...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
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The monsoon trough in the Indian Ocean is one of the causes that help those waves to move from the Indian Ocean into Africa and if that trough gets into Africa strong enough then the waves will be pretty big as they move thru the African continent and later they exit the west coast.But I know that there are more reasons for tropical waves to be active in Africa but I only gave one reason that causes them to be quite active.I think that there are other reasons however I know that soon enough someone will post about it.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Storm Cooper
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I agree... and also the 18Z AVN/GFS is interesting...... possibly a little over done but interesting.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Nope - not this time - at least not from me. The real answer to that question would take a full course in Meteorology to properly answer. My best advice is to treat your desire for more knowledge on the subject of weather - like the old adage about eating an elephant - one bite at a time (and small bites at that). My own personal knowledge of Meteorology has taken over 52 years to acquire - and that elephant has hardly a scratch on it 
For LI Phil:
Yeah - probably in the wrong place - but it was relevant to the discussion.
Cheers,
ED
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clyde w.
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I remember that in the last few years we talked about the subsidence off the coast of Africa in June and July -- even remember a couple of massive dust storms and the like. Even though the waves this year are still struggling to some extent, I find it very interesting that there seems to be a somewhat friendlier environment so far this year than in years past (June 2003 was a bit of an exception), as it relates to atmospheric moisture, both over Western Africa and the Eastern Atlantic. Something to keep in mind...
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hurricane_run
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that is somthing to think about. what do you think it will do to this season. A possible factor in it being more active?
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clyde w.
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Hard to tell..may mean nothing at all in the end. We've had a number of active Cape Verde seasons even when the early part of the season was not environmentally friendly, so my guess is that this will enhance it slightly, perhaps we'll see an early July Cape Verde storm, like Bertha in '96. In fact, I never put my prediction out for first named storm so I'll throw July 4th out there--forming east of the Lesser Antilles...good as any.
I think the fact that the QBO (sorry I know what it stands for but can't spell it for the life of me) has gone westerly will be the most telling for those storms that form off Africa. It is a big enhancing influence on hurricanes when the winds are from the west. Perhaps one of the experts could give more insight on why this is the case? I just know that when you line it up with climatology, it is certainly a fact.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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When the Everything & Nothing Forum was created, the intent was to provide a place to make an occasional post that would not otherwise be appropriate in any of the specialized tropical discussion forums. There was no intent for the E&N Forum to become the primary discussion forum on this site. Since the E&N Forum was rapidly becoming a Chat Room, I have decided that it is in the best interest of the site to close down the Everything & Nothing Forum for a few days so that we can all get back to the primary focus of this site which is tropical weather discussion. My thanks to those of you that brought this to my attention. No reply to this post is necessary. If you wish to comment, send me a PM.
Ed Dunham
CFHC Moderator
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Hurricane
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Toll of dead, missing tops 3,300 from devastating Caribbean floods
Fri Jun 4,11:31 PM ET
PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) - The toll of dead and missing from floods that ravaged parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic was set at more than 3,300 on Friday as aid workers reached the most remote areas.
In Haiti, the official death toll was at 1,191 and the number of missing at 1,484. The figures on the Dominican side of the border were 395 dead and 274 missing. That brought the overall toll to at least 3,344 from flooding caused by days of rains that unleashed torrents of water and mudslides on the border area of Hispaniola island nearly two weeks ago.
The new official figures totalling 1,586 confirmed dead in both countries is lower than the 1,700 reported earlier, a figure based on accounts by the government, witnesses and journalists.
"The death toll is higher than expected, and surely it will continue to rise," said Marko Kokic, a representative of the International Federation of Red Cross Services.
Aid workers said hundreds of victims washed away in floodwaters or buried in mudslides will probably never be found.
Red Cross workers found 17 bodies Thursday as they took a boat through the southern Haitian town of Mapou, still submerged following the May 24 floods.
Many decomposing corpses were hurriedly buried in mass graves and wherever they were found - some before they could be counted, Dominican Emergency Commission chief Radhames Lora Salcedo said.
Officials said the floods damaged or destroyed thousands of homes on both sides of the border. Crops were washed away along with numerous livestock.
Among the living, thousands remain in desperate need. Haiti's Civil Protection Agency estimated 31,000 Haitians were affected by one of the worst natural disasters to strike the Caribbean.
The Red Cross said more than 6,000 families need food and shelter between the hardest-hit Haitians towns of Mapou and Fond Verrettes, about 20 kilometres apart.
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Frank P
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Interesting blob of convection down in the SW Caribbean coming off the coast of South America this am, no organization but some intense IR convection noted. The system is drifting off to the NW and gives us something to watch during the weekend. 92L, Thursdays surprise invest, appears to have fallen off the map and should not be a factor for any development, which is apropos for something this early in the season.
What does have my attention, and it’s a long shot no doubt, is the complex thunderstorm activity in the TX/OK area, migrating southward towards the GOM. Although its intensity has diminished a tad over the past several hours, daytime heating should crank things up again today… And if it holds together into long enough to make it to the GOM, and then becomes stationary over water, and starts to organize ….. then it could be our first scenario for any GOM development … within the next several days or so…. Be like betting against Smarty Jones losing today for any of these systems to come to fruition... then again
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 05 2004 01:20 PM)
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joepub1
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Morning Frank!
A note about the Texas rains.... their might be a mid to upper level low (a small one at that) just to the west of Fort Worth that will help that rain get going again today. Pressures are dropping just a tad bit in the Dallas area. There is one back further to the west for sure in the Arz. region. The early rader did kinda show the rains moving in two directions this morning, with the axis drifting SE. Now whether it ever reaches the gulf, I don't have a clue, if it's even there. But the area between you and the Tex. coast is in good shape for possible development, and maybe some extended showers over the water might start something.
Frank P., check out the Storm Forum for my on-the-cuttingedge prediction for Florida and the hurricane season. You might be the one person would get a he-he  out of it. Hey, I backed it up with stats that are hard to argue with.
Joepub1
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James88
Weather Master
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That system definetely bears watching over the next few days. Note also the convection firing off in the south-west Caribbean Sea. I'm not saying it will develop, but it's something else to watch.
Has anyone noticed the disturbance in the E. Pac. It looks quite a bit better organised than yesterday - maybe it could develop into Blas...but who knows?
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HanKFranK
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the sw caribbean does have a decent convective burst going on.. but low cloud movements don't have me thinking anything will get going with it. no real turning visible, just the log-jam look waves frequently get in that corner of the caribbean. still sketchy model rumblings for a gulf/nw caribbean system in a few days.. as there were rumblings for something right now a week and a half ago. the medium range forecast models haven't been as consistent as with the late may disturbance that killed all those people in hispaniola, so their future existence is a dubious notion for now.
i have a feeling that is switched off right now, based on how convection is behaving in the basin. can't remember where that graphical loop showing it is.. just a hunch. there's westpac development right now.. usually means that we'll get an potential activity window in ten to twenty days on this side. that may, conveniently, coincide with model projected activity.
HF 1736z05june
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James88
Weather Master
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For the 3rd day, temperatures in the East Atlantic have continued to fall. Now it looks as though this may be about to move into the central Atlantic. Does anyone have any thoughts or opinions on this, or whether it will affect the hurricane season?
SSTs loop
Edited by James88 (Sat Jun 05 2004 06:09 PM)
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